I will begin our first foray into the Flat season with a look at the 2024 running of the Lincoln at Doncaster. That race was won by Mr Professor, who burst through the field with 3-furlongs to run to win by a length and a half from Lattam. That race was run on ground described as Soft, Heavy in places and with a finishing speed of 95.92% in those conditions, it was no surprise to see the first 6 horses to cross the line being held towards the rear of the field in the early stages. Lattam was a little unlucky as he squeezed his way through some tight spaces in the closing stages and he did run the fastest final furlong in the race (13.89s), although the winner was in command at that stage. Mr Professor has struggled since and even with a falling mark, it’s hard to be overly confident about his chances of a repeat performance. However, the case for Lattam is a much stronger one and his form in the Balmoral Handicap at Ascot on Champions Day in October would look to hold the key to this years’ Lincoln.
Lattam hasn’t won a race since June 2023 and that would be an obvious concern, but his form is still relatively strong and if he arrives in the same form as 12-months ago, he should run his race. He had the best run-out speed in the field last season at 30.18 mph and ran a solid race when 2nd in the Balmoral behind Carrytheone. The obvious concern would be the ground. His best form has come on Soft ground or the All-Weather and the more the ground dries at Doncaster, the more it may inhibit his chance. He was 0.75s slower than Thunder Run over the opening quarter of a mile in the Balmoral Handicap, taking 7.8s to reach 30 mph (Thunder Run 6.6s). We know that he finishes his races well, but on good ground the leaders are less likely to be coming back to him and he may need to wait for a better opportunity.
Thunder Run was installed as the Ante Post favourite for this race when the entries were made on Monday and it’s easy to see why from the Data. He made all the running to win the Clipper Handicap at York in August, blasting away from the gates in 13.16 and 11.87s and holding on from Mirsky and Hollowbay Boy. The ground was slightly against him at Ascot in October and being held in the stalls for a long time didn’t help either, but he still broke smartly to lead the stands side group and found himself in front when the groups merged with 3-furlongs to run. He couldn’t hold off the closers, but he still finished in 15.05s (ranked 5th) and his run-out speed of 28.86 mph was only beaten by the winner. Fresh from a break, he should be in the front ranks at the end of the opening furlong and having won 3 of his 6 starts, he is still open to plenty of improvement in conditions that should suit.
Godwinson is also worth a small mention as his best form has come after a break. He finished 2nd in the Spring Cup at Newbury on his comeback last season when he finished strongly, running the fastest final furlong in 12.14s and clocking the best run-out speed in the field at 24.99 mph. If ready for his return once again, he should be finishing strongly, but he ran a poor race in the Balmoral last time when wearing cheekpieces for the first time and given that he lost 2.58s on the winner over the final 2-furlongs, he does need to improve to go close in this race. Both of his victories have come on Good to Soft ground and it may have been that the softer
conditions at Ascot in October were against him, but this will require a career best even if forgiving that effort.
Midnight Gun has the right profile for this race. A lightly raced 4-year-old would fit the recent trends that has seen that age group win 5 of the last 8 renewals of this race. He finished 2nd at Doncaster behind Harper’s Ferry in October and the form of that race has certainly been boosted by the 4th placed Apiarist, who we will come to in a moment. Midnight Gun and Harper’s Ferry were able to control the pace in front that day and although the finishing speed of 100% would suggest that the race was run at a good pace, the tacky conditions made it hard for horses to make up ground in the closing stages. Midnight Gun had the same top speed as the winner (38.83 mph), but he lost 0.13s on the winner in the final furlong and had a slower run-out speed of 30.85 mph (Harper’s Ferry 32.3 mph). Both wins have come on better ground and so the conditions at Doncaster should help him, but if there is a chink in his armour, it would be the way he finishes his races and there are others who may hit the line harder than he will.
Apiarist was only 4th at Doncaster, but he has won 3 times since and his form with Royal Zabeel at Southwell looks strong. He was held up on that occasion but came with a sustained late run, finishing in 11.43 and 12.25s to win by a neck. That form makes him of obvious interest, especially given the fact that he has race fitness on his side, but there is a doubt about him on the turf. His only win on the grass came as a 2-year-old at York and whilst he has run well on the turf since, he has a much better record on the All-Weather (3-1-5). It’s a balance between form and fitness, but from a career high mark of 97, this is a very stiff task.
Whip Cracker has been the talking horse from the Lincoln Trial at Wolverhampton, but I think that Two Tempting is perhaps a more interesting horse to watch from that race. He won 5 times last season including wins in mile handicaps at Epsom, Sandown and Chester and on his first run for 154-days, I thought he ran a nice race on his comeback. He took 5.8s to reach 30 mph and was involved in a 4-way battle for the early lead as they headed for the first turn. Slightly keen, he eventually settled behind the pace setters before being brought wide to make his challenge. He quickened into the home straight, despite being wide (he covered more ground than any of the 4 horses who finished in front of him) and although he tired late on, he shaped like a horse who will improve for the benefit of this run. A mark of 98 will require a career best, but he is only 3 lbs higher than his latest winning mark (Chester, August 2024) and with race fitness on his side, he should run his race.
The booking of Warren Fentiman to ride Toimy Son is certainly interesting. His 5 lb claim will bring David Menuisier’s 6-year-old down to a mark of 92, the same mark he had when finishing 3rd on his seasonal return at Kempton last season. He was a winner at Goodwood in August and largely held his form last season, never finishing more than 6-lengths behind the winner in 9 starts. He finished 6th in the Balmoral at Ascot in October where he looked a little one paced. His top speed figure of 37.36 mph was the slowest figure of the first 10 horses to cross the line. However, he raced without cover in the early stages and when tucked in by Oisin Murphy, the gaps didn’t appear for him to get the chance to stretch. He needs things to fall right for him and
it should be noted that he has only won once in 14 starts in the UK, but he is another who should run his race.
There are certainly a few unknown quantities in this field. I’ll start with Galeron, who hasn’t been seen on the racecourse since August 2023. He ran in both the English and Irish 2,000 Guineas that year, as well as the St James’ Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot and a repeat of his 5-length defeat behind Chaldean at Newmarket would probably be enough to win this from a mark of 102, but after such a long absence it is impossible to say whether he will be anywhere near that level of form on Saturday.
If we ignore Native Warrior’s latest run (and I accept that is a big “if”) then he has the right profile for this race too. We haven’t seen him since he finished 11th at Doncaster in September and so there presumably was a reason for his underperformance that day. On his earlier form, he looks well treated by the handicapper and judged on that, this race could suit him. He began last season with a 3-length defeat behind Notable Speech at Kempton. That form clearly worked out extremely well and although he finished 3rd in the Britannia at Royal Ascot, he was the first horse across the line in the stands side group and ran the fastest final furlong of the race in 12.25s. He backed that up with a 2nd placed finish at Goodwood in August and his form figures on a sounder surface read 3,1,3,2 (excluding his last run). Assuming he returns to the Britannia form, he should be suited by this race and the way it is likely to be run.
Like many of the big handicap races in the UK there is a serious Irish challenger. Orandi has already won the Irish Lincoln at the Curragh and on that form alone, he must be considered a contender here. That race was run on Soft ground and the first 4 horses to cross the line were all ridden patiently, but despite being short of room at the 2-furlong pole, he finished strongly in 12.46s and 13.80s, the fastest final quarter of a mile in the field, to win by three-quarters of a length. After 35 career starts he is relatively exposed, but he has finished in the first 3 on each of his last 7 starts and can’t be ignored in his current form, even with the different conditions at Doncaster.
There are plenty of older horses who are likely to run their race and who will be competitive in the various mile handicaps to come this season. However, the improving 4-year-olds do seem to be the group to focus on this year. The conditions will play a part, as will the draw, but I do feel that Thunder Run is an obvious selection here. We know from the data that he will start well and if he is able to get to the front, he should be able to last home on the drying ground. Against rivals who will be ridden patiently or who may take a step forward for the benefit of their first run of the season, he should be able to gain an early advantage, as he did at York in August and unless they are at peak fitness, they may find it hard to close him down in the closing furlongs.
You can find sectional times, stride data, speed statistics and jumping performance metrics on the At The Races RESULTS page.
The global database of sectional times, stride data and performance metrics is available through Total Performance Data.