This week’s review of the TPD data looks ahead to some of the major events of the Flat Racing scene coming up over the next few weeks and months. This weekend we saw clues that might point towards some of those major meetings, like the Saudi Cup, Dubai World Cup night, the Kentucky Derby, Royal Ascot and even the Winter Derby at Southwell. I’ll begin with a look at the very impressive victory of George Scott’s Phantom Flight in the Crown Prince’s Cup in Bahrain on Friday evening.
Bahrain
HRH The Crown Prince’s Cup
George Scott and Callum Shepherd teamed up for the 2nd year in a row to land the Crown Prince’s Cup and given that last years winner, Isle of Jura, went on to win a King’s Cup and the Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot, they must surely be hoping that Phantom Flight can follow a similar path after this impressive performance. When writing the preview for this race, it wasn’t entirely clear where the pace was going to come from and if it had turned into a tactical race, then it might have been a different outcome. However, Signalman went forwards from an early stage and ran 36.99s for the opening 3-furlongs (14.10, 11.41, 11.48) to ensure that this was a proper test over the 2,000m and that played ideally into Phantom Flight’s hands. He will surely stay further than this and once the leader began to tire, it became obvious that there was only one horse travelling well and that was Phantom Flight. In each of the last 6-furlongs of the contest, his average stride length was the longest in the field and he was able to maintain a stride frequency above his race average of 2.2 strides per second for each of the last 4-furlongs of this race. Shepherd was so confident that he was able to have a brief glance around at the 500-metre point to look for dangers. It wasn’t entirely straight forwards however, as Sovereign Spirit was sent for home with an 11.38s eighth furlong and that allowed him to establish a 2-length lead. Phantom Flight was asked to respond and he did so instantly, running the fastest final 2-furlongs in 11.07 and 11.41s and clocking a top speed 41.09 mph, significantly faster than anything else in the field (next best Zagato 40.60 mph). He looks to be improving and whilst he has a very different profile to Isle of Jura, there is enough evidence here to suggest that he may be capable of matching his stablemates achievements. His connections mentioned a trip to Saudi Arabia next before a possible return here in March. After an impressive display, he must be high on the shortlist wherever he turns up next.
We should spare a thought for the disappointment in the race, Snellen. She had run well here before the turn of the year and there were excuses for her 5th placed finish last time. However, the data from TPD did suggest that the 10-furlong trip was at the edge of her stamina range and once this race became a true test, she was always likely to be vulnerable. Seamie Heffernan did his best to ride her quietly at the rear to try and conserve her stamina, but despite running 11.24s for both the 7th and 8th furlongs, the fastest horse at that point of the race, she wasn’t able to sustain her effort. She has a relatively short stride, with a peak of just 23.59 ft, the shortest in this field. She makes up for that with a solid turn-of-foot and the highest average stride frequency of 2.42 per second, but she may simply be suited to a shorter trip where she can use her speed.
Meydan
Dubai Millenium Stakes sponsored by Emaar
First Conquest has now won his last 3 starts for Charlie Appleby, but the data from TPD would suggest that this was a career best by some distance. He began relatively slowly, taking 6.8s to reach 30 mph, with only Hans Andersen slower to reach that speed (7.0s) and found himself last as they turned for home. However, as the race developed in front of him, he was brought wide by William Buick for a clear run and once asked for an effort, he quickened with devastating consequences for his rivals. He closed in 34.24s for the final 3-furlongs (11.26, 11.16 and 11.82s) to win going away with the best run-out speed of 35.72 mph. For comparison, the runner-up, Cairo, who is a 108-rated Listed winner with solid Meydan form and who enjoyed a relatively smooth passage in this race, was only able to come home in 35.26s (11.56, 11.59 and 12.11s). First Conquest clocked a top speed of 41.36 mph in the straight, 0.92 mph faster than the next best speed in the field (Stormy Ocean) and with a turn-of-foot like that, he is going to be very hard to beat. He does need a decent pace to aim at, but the competitive nature of the turf races in Dubai should guarantee that and as long as he gets a clear run in the home straight, he’s likely to have too much speed for any horse he encounters over 10-furlongs at Meydan in the future.
Southwell
BetUK Winter Derby Trial Conditions Stakes
This was a 5th win in 6 starts on the All-Weather for Champagne Prince, who showed his class to win this Winter Derby trial with the minimum of fuss. With only 4-runners going to post, the small field played to his strengths, as he sat on the quarters of the early leader Intinso before coming away to win comfortably under a hands ride. Although 9lbs wrong at the weights with the beaten favourite Eydon (2nd), Champagne Prince had the highest average stride frequency (2.22 strides per second) and the longest maximum stride length (25.69 ft) and once asked to quicken, he proved to have far too much speed for his 3 rivals, with the fastest top speed clocked in the field at 39.59 mph. Jane Chapple-Hyam’s 4-year-old is improving rapidly and having beaten Eydon on his last 2 starts, it seems unlikely that this form will be reversed in the Winter Derby on 22nd February. There is likely to be a bigger field for the feature race of the All-Weather season at Southwell, but with the speed that he has shown, he is now likely to be a very warm order for that contest and the data from TPD would suggest that his speed is likely to be too much for his rivals there too.
Gulfstream Park
Holy Bull Stakes (G3)
The extended mile trip at Gulfstream can be a difficult race to ride with the first bend coming so close to the starting stalls, but the widest draw may well have helped Edgard Zayas as he was effectively forced to drop Burnham Square behind the field, taking 18.72s to reach the 7-furlong pole, the slowest time in the field. Taking his mount to the inside rail, he was able to weave through the field around the final turn, but from the 3-furlong pole to the line, this was a very classy performance from Ian Wilkes 3-year-old. Switching wide to make his challenge, he has readily run down Tappan Street in the home straight with closing furlongs of 12.69 and 12.57s, 0.92s quicker than the beaten favourite over the final quarter of a mile. The pair had pulled 9-lengths clear of the rest by the time they had crossed the line and whilst we should acknowledge that Tappan Street did race wider in the back straight, he was no match for Burnham Square when it mattered. The winner had a peak stride length of 25.75 ft, significantly longer than Tappan Street (23.82 ft) and once at full stretch, he has been able to win this Grade 3 prize with some authority.
Santa Anita
Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3)
This race saw the return of last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Citizen Bull and he gave his supporters very few concerns in what turned out to be a flawless return to the track. He broke well, running 11.62 and 11.69s for the opening furlongs and that allowed Martin Garcia to dominate the pace in front before kicking clear in the home straight. He clocked 40.24 mph when winning this contest, which included the fastest final 2-furlongs in the field (12.32 and 13.32s) despite making the running in a strongly run race with a finishing speed of 94.30%. Neither his peak stride length nor his peak stride frequency matched the 24.15 ft and 2.34 strides per second that he recorded at Del Mar in November, which would suggest there is further improvement to come after this return. However, he has given 4 lbs and over 3-lengths to 2 of his well regarded stablemates (Rodriguez 2nd, Madaket Road 3rd) and deserves his place at the head of the Ante Post market for the Kentucky Derby as a result.
You can find sectional times, stride data, speed statistics and jumping performance metrics on the At The Races RESULTS page.
The global database of sectional times, stride data and performance metrics is available through Total Performance Data.