There were so many races over the Christmas period that I could have written 20,000 words on the subject and still not covered it all. However, in order to narrow it down for this week’s review I have focussed on the Racing shown on Sky Sports Racing this week, looking at the TPD Data from both sides of the Atlantic to review the best of the action.
Newbury
Coral Challow Novices’ Hurdle (G1)
The New Lion roars to victory in the Challow Hurdle. I’m going to start this week’s review with a look at the final British Grade 1 of 2024 and some shameless self-congratulation for correctly picking the winner of this race in my preview last week. The New Lion made plenty of appeal in a race that looked likely to be run to suit and so it proved. Harry Skelton kept his mount away from the early competition for the lead, but when the pace lifted with 4-furlongs to run, he was ideally placed and was confident enough to take a pull, despite travelling at 13.37s furlong pace. Once in front, he was a clear best and cantered home in 14.59 and 14.57s, the fastest in the field. A winning time of 5:03.89 compares reasonably well with the most recent winners when the ground has been described as good to soft (Champ 5:10.40 in 2018, Messire des Obeaux 4:58.25 in 2016). Speed is one thing, but it is his jumping fluency that makes The New Lion stand out. He lost an average of just 3.5% of his speed at his obstacles on Saturday, making him the most efficient hurdler in the field, especially in the early stages of the race and this is the 2nd time he has produced a top class jumping display after managing an average loss of just 3.2% in November. Both figures are significantly below the course winners average (6.93%) and if he continues to jump efficiently, he will be a force to be reckoned with in the Spring. Following this win, he has been installed as the Ante-Post favourite for the Turners Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. We do not yet know how his form compares to the Irish, but on this evidence he looks to be the best British hope for that race ahead of Potters Charm.
Chepstow
Coral FInale Juvenile Hurdle (G2)
Nietzsche Has signs off in style in the fog. It’s unusual to see a Juvenile hurdler win and disappear into the sun, but with a career as a stallion in his immediate future, Nietzsche Has rewarded his connections’ bravery with an easy success in this grade 2. He had strong French form earlier in the season and having run Sain D’Esprit a close 2nd in the G1 Prix Cambaceres last month, he confirmed the strength of that form with an 8-length success here. Although the descending fog makes it hard to truly assess this form, the sectional times do show that he was the fastest horse over the final 2-furlongs (13.37 and 14.62s) as well as showing the best run-
out speed of 32.06 mph. He was purchased with a stallion career in mind and so this is the last time that we will see Marcel Rolland’s star 3-year-old, but he has held his French form well and as such, we can upgrade the performance of the runner-up, Marche D’Aligre. Although he was beaten 8-lengths, he has run a career best here and has stayed on well to finish 2nd. With an average stride length of 21.85 ft, he has the longest stride in the field and was clearly suited by the long straight and galloping nature of this track. He needs one more run for a handicap mark and could be interesting as we head into the Spring.
The winning time of 4:00.58s is the 3rd fastest since 2005 and the dominant performance of the winner (from what can be seen in the fog) would suggest this was an above average effort in this race and as such those behind Nietzsche Has can be upgraded slightly. Marche D’Aligre ran a time of 4:02.59, which would have been quick enough to win 4 of the last 9 runnings when the ground has been described as soft.
Santa Anita
Malibu Stakes (G1)
Early speed is the key for Raging Torrent. With only 6-runners making it to post, the widest draw wasn’t the handicap that it looked like being and after showing an excellent early speed, Raging Torrent was superbly delivered by Frankie Dettori to land this Grade 1 prize. Having broken from the gate in 11.99 and 10.45s, he found himself directly behind the early pace set by Pilot Commander and when that rival faded off the home turn, Raging Torrent had enough in reserve to kick for home. The pair were the only runners in the field to top 44 mph (Pilot Commander 44.16 mph, Raging Torrent 44.11 mph) and that early advantage proved key to the winner, who held an advantage over Stronghold (2nd) as they turned for home. He leaned across the field to get to the inside rail in the closing stages, but having run the fastest 6th furlong in 12.20s, he was the best horse on the day.
The disappointment of the race was the Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan, who trailed in last of the 6 runners after a tardy start. He broke in 12.24s from the gate and ranked 5th, 6th and 6th over the opening 3-furlongs. Although briefly making an effort at the halfway stage, he was never on terms and may simply have needed the run after a 200-day absence as both his average stride length and stride frequency decreased significantly from halfway (Peak 7.72m to 6.52m / Peak 2.47 sps to 2.22 sps).
Robert J. Frankel Stakes (G3)
Another big prize landed by Frankie Dettori as Mrs Astor just gets her head down in time. This was a muddling race which developed into a sprint, with the entire field separated by less than 3-lengths at the line. In a race with a finishing speed of 103.43%, the pace didn’t dip below 12-second furlongs until the final 600 metres, but from there it became a dash to the line, with Dettori galvanising his mount to put her head down in the final strides. Her long stride appeared
to be the key here. She measured an average stride of 7.76m in the final furlong, the longest in the field and that looked to be the key as she ran down the unlucky Mahina (2nd) in the final strides. This was a 4th career success for Mrs Astor and her 2nd in a row at this level after she landed the Red Carpet Stakes at Del Mar last month, but it is worth noting that all 4 wins have come in relatively steadily run races and she appears to be suited by races that develop into a sprint finish.
There were no excuses for the beaten Favourite, Hang the Moon, who trailed in last of 6 despite having the ideal position behind the early pace setter, but I will forgive the 3rd placed finish of Yerwanthere. She was a winner in Ireland for Joseph O’Brien in her younger days and although she has yet to win outside of Claiming company in the US, she has run well here to suggest she may be capable of winning in stakes company. Having been caught behind the fading Hang the Moon at a crucial stage, she was forced to switch late and those 2 or 3 lengths lost were too much to make up despite being faster than the winner over the final 2-furlongs in 23.25s.
I thought I would end this week’s review with a couple of eye-catching winners from the Boxing Day cards who could be worth following in the weeks to come.
Wolverhampton
Boost your Acca at Bet MGM Nursery
Blue Seeker lands a considerable Christmas punt for the Crisford team. Having come into this handicap debut with form figures of 8,6,5, it was hard to assess whether an opening mark of 63 was a fair reflection of his ability. However, having been supported from an early price of 7/1, he quickly put any doubts to bed and despite being slowly into stride (he ranks 11th of 12 for the opening furlong), he overcame significant trouble in running to win by just under 2-lengths as a 6/5 SP favourite. A run-out speed of 35.95 mph and a final furlong of 12.02s would suggest that there was more in the tank if it had been needed, though a finishing speed of 96.1% may have slightly flattered a horse who was held up away from the strong pace. Most notable is the fact that his average stride length (7.22 m) and his average stride frequency (2.32 per second) in the final furlong were well above his mean average throughout the race. He has beaten the 61 rated Sweet Cicely here giving 2lbs away, so the handicapper won’t be able to be too harsh and he looks very capable of winning again, especially when we consider the market confidence behind him on Boxing Day.
Sedgefield
Download the Vickers.bet App Novices’ Hurdle
Sign Again is going in the right direction for Charlie Longsdon. This was a 3rd win in 4 career starts for this 4-year-old son of Lucky Speed and by far his most impressive performance to date as he ran down the 130-rated Pigeon House in the closing stages. In a fiercely run race with a finishing speed of 88.70%, Lily Pinchin has worked hard to keep her mount in contact
with the leader to the top of the hill and from there the horse has taken over. With a peak stride length of 26.54 ft, he had the longest stride length of any hurdler on the day at Sedgefield and looks likely to be well suited to tracks like this where the emphasis is on stamina and a climb to the finish line. Having run the final 4-furlongs in 53.06s, he has also shown plenty of speed (top speed 36.66 mph) and it will be interesting to see what the BHA Handicapper gives him as an opening mark after this.