The Cheltenham festival is over and we are less than 7-days away from the return of the Flat season at Doncaster. For that reason, this week’s review of the data from TPD focusses on some of the results on the level as we prepare to switch codes in the UK. It’s a sudden change from looking at jumping efficiency to early speed and stride length patterns, but it’s also a welcome one and it was refreshing to add a few new names to the tracker from this week’s data.
Southwell
Best Odds Guaranteed at BetMGM Maiden Stakes (Div 1)
We will begin last Wednesday with the reappearance of the 90-rated Spirit of Summer from the Andrew Balding yard. He had form with the likes of Starzintheireyes and Secret Theory in maidens last year and ended his Juvenile campaign by running in the Group 1 Criterium International at Saint-Cloud. That was a step too far, but he readily dispatched this field to break his maiden tag. Settled in Mid-Division at the start, he raced towards the centre of the home straight, away from the track bias, but he quickened nicely to reach a top speed of 40.8 mph with closing furlongs of 11.03 and 11.80s, all of which made him the fastest horse in the field. The bare form is nothing out of the ordinary. The runner-up, Bowen Island, is now a 6-race maiden and is struggling to justify his official rating of 81, but Spirit of Summer readily dispatched him and made up 0.82s on him over the final 3-furlongs. At an average of 23.62 ft, his stride length was by no means the longest in this field, but he showed plenty of speed and his peak stride frequency of 2.44 per second was the highest of the 9-runners. He didn’t need to improve to win this based on his juvenile form, but he put the race to bed nicely in the straight and his closing 2-furlongs were easily the fastest, despite not racing with the stands rail and he sets a fair standard, around which this form can be assessed.
The other horse to note in the first division was Nutmeg, who dead-heated for 2nd on his debut for George Scott and Amo Racing. He was outpaced by the winner in the closing stages, losing 0.51s on him over the final 2-furlongs, but he had the best run-out speed in the field at 35.93 mph and with a peak stride length of 24.74 ft, a peak that he reached in the final 2-furlongs, he is one to note over a longer trip in the future.
Best Odds Guaranteed at BetMGM Maiden Stakes (Div 2)
Fast forward 30-minutes on Wednesday’s card and we saw another impressive maiden winner in the 2nd division. Al Arbeed was backed into 6/5 favouritism for his debut and was clearly showing plenty at home for the Hannon yard, but there’s a lot to like about this win all the same. The race had a finishing speed of 110% and was 1.78s slower than the first division, mainly due to the fact that Oisin Murphy steadied the pace at the end of the back straight onboard Rescue Mission. That horse eventually finished 2nd, but turning for home, he attempted to kick for home with Al Arbeed behind him. However, Al Arbeed kicked in the turbo, coming home in 10.93 and 11.52s, fully 0.48s quicker than Spirit of Summer in the first division and which coincided with a top speed figure of 41.83 mph. He maintained a peak average stride length of 25.43 ft in the final 2-furlongs, although it should be noted that the slower early pace allowed him to have more in the tank at that stage, but the speed that he has shown would suggest that he has above average ability.
Al Arbeed was an impressive winner, but I’d also give credit to the 3rd placed Indian Spirit. He was also making his debut and sat behind the pace under Jason Watson. Although he was only 2-lengths behind the winner at the 2-furlong pole, he switched towards the stands rail in an attempt to run the winner down and simply wasn’t able to get on terms with a rival that was able to get the first run in the sprint finish. However, he also dropped below 11-seconds for the penultimate furlong, coming home in 10.95 and 11.46s, the fastest finish in the field and his run-out speed of 37.27 mph was quicker than Al Arbeed (36.66 mph). This was a promising debut from Charlie Hills 3-year-old and he is surely a winner in waiting if he gets to run on terms with the pace next time.
Boost Your Acca at BetMGM Novice Stakes
Friday evening also saw an interesting novice contest on the tapeta as Michael Scofield took on Gunship in what looked to be a match race. We lost the opportunity to see that match develop at the start, as Gunship fell out of the stalls, taking 6.6s to reach 30 mph (Michael Scofield took 5.8s) and that left him with too much work to do. To his credit, he recovered to finish 2nd, going down by just 0.2s overall and running the fastest final 3-furlongs in the field, but the winner was able to dictate in front and get the first run and that proved to be crucial. Michael Scofield is a smart horse in his own right and was winning this with a 7 lb penalty on his back and through him, this looks to be a strong piece of form. Gunship had a peak average stride length of 25.85 ft, the longest in the field and that will serve him well as he steps up in trip. However, that wasn’t likely to help him around the tight turn at Southwell over a mile, especially after a slow beginning. He holds entries in both the 2,000 Guineas and the Derby and whilst he has a lot of improvement to find before he can be considered a contender for either of those races, he is worth forgiving this effort because of the ground lost at the start. Michael Scofield is a Tiz the Law colt who has shown plenty of early speed and at 40.20 mph, he was the fastest horse in the field. The 2 of them seem likely to head in different directions now, but the winning time of 1:40.09 was over 2-seconds faster than the other mile races on the card and given that the pair were over 2-lengths clear of the rest, carrying more weight in the process, they are both worthy of note for the weeks ahead.
Santa Anita
San Luis Rey Stakes (Grade 3)
A relatively extreme trip for racing in the US, this 12-furlong contest developed into a sprint in the final 4-furlongs and that certainly suited the winner, Atitlan. He’d possibly hit the front too soon when finishing a tired 5th here last month in the San Marcos Stakes, but benefitted from a more patient ride here as he pounced with a late run around the field, coming home in 11.62 and 11.41s. He’s a nice colt by The Factor and given that he is a half-brother to a winner over 1-mile 5-furlong trips in France, it is no surprise to see him find improvement when stepping up in trip for the first time on Saturday evening. He had a peak stride length of 25.80 (ft) and that long stride allowed him to lengthen away in the closing stages, but I can’t help but feel that the 3rd placed Gold Phoenix was an unlucky loser.
Gold Phoenix had finished 4th behind Rebel’s Romance in the Breeders’ Cup Turf in November on his previous start and shaped like the best horse in the race for most of this contest. Sat behind the pace, his jockey was motionless as they began the turn for home, but the horses in front of him were tiring and the gaps didn’t come, meaning that he lost 0.63s on the winner in the penultimate furlong. Once in the clear, he ran on under a hands ride, closing in 11.42s and clocking the fastest run-out speed in the field at 38.36 mph, but the damage was done by that point in the race. His average stride frequency reached a peak of 2.34 per second in the final furlong and having finished seemingly full of running, his connections are right to be disappointed. Beaten 0.41s, that lack of room at the top of the stretch has cost him dearly, but he should reverse this form with a clear run next time.
Easter was sent off as a short priced favourite for this race, but it’s hard to find any obvious excuse for his poor performance. Slightly keen in the early stages, Antonio Fresu settled him behind Gold Phoenix for the first circuit before moving up to challenge around the home turn. He ran the fastest 7th furlong in the field at 12.36s and had every chance when turning for home, but the winner readily came past him on the outside and was 1.08s quicker over the final 3-furlongs. Easter did clock a faster top speed than the 3 horses who finished in front of him (40.65 mph) and it’s possible that he didn’t see out the trip, but his stride length data suggests otherwise as he reached a peak of 25.43 ft in the closing stages. He had been given a patient ride when staying on to finish 2nd in the San Marcos stakes last time and maybe a return to those tactics will see him in a better light next time. However, he is winless since December 2023 and may well need a drop in grade, as well as trip, to get himself back in the winners enclosure now.
Oaklawn Park
Essex Handicap (Grade 3)
We certainly need the data for this race because the winner doesn’t appear in the video replay until the field has reached the 4-furlong pole. Red Route One had a top speed of 40.89 mph, the slowest in the field and simply couldn’t go with the fast early pace, losing 1.64s on the leaders over the opening 3-furlongs. However, that proved to be a blessing in disguise as the pace began to collapse from the halfway point and he was able to maintain a consistent gallop under Keith Asmussen to win for the 4th time in graded company. The race had a finishing speed of 93.22% and given the early pace, it was no surprise to see both early leaders finish down the field. Red Route One was also slightly fortunate to get the gap along the inside rail as the tiring Upload was eased off as he came back through the field. One stablemate allowing another room to race is hardly newsworthy, but it did make things easier for Red Route One and once into the straight, he had enough energy left to pass tiring rivals. Visually, he appears to be finishing quickly, but the data shows that he is also slowing down, dropping from an average speed of 16.51 m/s at the end of the back straight to just 15.22 m/s in the final furlong, but it was enough to run down placed horses whose stride length and frequency had dropped significantly by that stage. Red Route One is a largely consistent horse at this level and wasn’t winning out of turn, but the form needs to be treated with caution given the manner in which the early pace collapsed so far from home.
You can find sectional times, stride data, speed statistics and jumping performance metrics on the At The Races RESULTS page.
The global database of sectional times, stride data and performance metrics is available through Total Performance Data.