It may only be the 24th February but surely we have already seen the best race of 2025. Forever Young and Romantic Warrior have not only produced the best renewal of the Saudi Cup that there has ever been, but it must surely be argued that this is also the best race on Dirt ever to take place outside the US. The 2025 Saudi Cup delivered on its promise. Here’s this week’s review of the data from TPD, focussing on the Saudi Cup and also the All-Weather action from Southwell on Winter Derby Day.
Saudi Arabia
Where do we start with this race? An incredible performance from both the winner and the runner-up and the fact that they are over 10-lengths and 1.88s clear of Ushba Tesoro at the line, a former Dubai World Cup winner, is remarkable. Let’s start with the 3rd. He has hit the frame in this race for the 2nd year in a row, but he lost all chance at the start, running the slowest opening furlong in 15.59s. For comparison, Forever Young ran 14.12s from the gate, fully 1.47s quicker and giving that much ground to world class horses at the start of a race is always going to leave an impossible task. To be fair to Ushba Tesoro, he has rallied well and runs 11.99 and 12.23s into the closing stages, the fastest 7th and 8th furlongs in the field, but it is all in vain at that stage. He is likely to head back to Dubai for another try on World Cup night, but he will need to break better if he is to regain his 2023 crown.
Now for Forever Young. A wide draw in stall 14 could have been difficult, but Forever Young broke smartly, taking 6-seconds to reach 30 mph and running the fastest opening furlong in 14.12s. That allowed Ryusei Sakai to get across to the rail in a prominent position and perhaps crucially, that found him a length in front of Romantic Warrior as they approached the turn. From the 4-furlong pole, he saved ground on the runner-up, despite losing 0.58s on his main rival over the next 600 metres, but the energy saved proved crucial and when Romantic Warrior began to empty, he found more. If we compare their average stride frequencies over the final 4-furlongs, it highlights the value of that saved energy. Forever Young is able to maintain his stride frequency, which decreases from an average of 2.26 per second in the 7th furlong to 2.24 per second in the last. Over the same distance, Romantic Warrior drops from 2.34 to 2.26 per second. It’s a very fine margin, but in a race won by 0.05s it has proved to be telling. This was a career best performance from Forever Young, who capped this performance with the fastest final furlong in 12.93s.
Are the connections of Romantic Warrior right to feel that this race may have slipped away? Possibly. The first point to make is that he answered the question about the Dirt surface and he had no issues at all with the switch from the turf. His average stride frequency of 2.29 per second compares well with the 2.31 per second that he recorded when winning the Jebel Hatta at Meydan and if his connections decided to have another try on the dirt, they could surely do so with confidence. A lot will be made of James MacDonald’s decision to switch his mount 5-wide around the turn and as we have seen from the data, he is covering more ground at a time when he is running considerably faster than Forever Young. However, the nature of this race arguably forced his hand. Perhaps expecting Walk of Stars to lead, he found himself behind a horse that didn’t run his race and given that Forever Young recorded a better top speed figure (40.40 mph), there is no guarantee that he would have been able to run down the winner if he had tracked him into the latter stages. Walk of Stars was slowing down from the 5-furlong pole and so MacDonald had little choice but to switch tactics if this was the case.
Romantic Warrior hasn’t run the fastest individual split in any of the 9-furlongs, but he has run a very fast time and has finished 10-lengths clear of a top class field. With the exception of the final 50-yards, he had produced a phenomenal performance in the best race of the year. Beaten by a horse with more experience on the dirt and who has hit the frame in both the Kentucky Derby and the Breeders’ Cup Classic means that he has lost nothing in defeat.
Southwell
BetUK Winter Derby (Group 3)
When the 3 highest rated horses in the field finish in the frame, there is a tendency to assume that the race has run to form, but despite the 11-furlong trip, this year’s Winter Derby became about speed, as Royal Champion quickened smartly in the closing stages to put this race to bed. Champagne Prince has been a star on the All-Weather this Winter, but despite having the run of the race in front under William Buick, he wasn’t able to repel his higher class rivals. With a finishing speed of 110.69%, this wasn’t run at an end-to-end gallop, but once it became a relative sprint, that suited the race fit Royal Champion. Initially, he was keen in Clifford Lee’s hands, but having had the ideal position on the leaders quarters, he was sent to challenge on the stands side and was comfortably on top in the closing stages, running the fastest final furlong in 11.90s and having the best run-out speed in the field at 35.70 mph. Despite finishing strongly, I don’t think that this race can be used as confirmation that Royal Champion would have the stamina for 12-furlongs. The steady pace in the back straight and the fact that William Buick slowed the pace with 6-furlongs to run allowed him to see it out and it’s noticeable that his peak average stride length (7.48m) and his peak average stride frequency (2.4 strides per second) came in the last 2-furlongs of the race.
Persica, last seen running with credit in the Champion Stakes at Ascot in October, has run his race once again and on his first start since, will likely improve for this effort. He has clocked a higher top speed than the winner at 40.60 mph and he has matched or bettered Royal Champion in 3 of the last 4-furlongs. He wasn’t able to sustain his challenge into the final furlong, when running 12.60s and decreasing his average stride from 7.58m to 7.04m. That is perhaps understandable on his return from a break and given that he will strip fitter on his next start, he is a horse to keep on side in the opening weeks of the Flat season next month.
On just his 5th career start, Military Academy has certainly matched the form that he showed when winning in Listed company at Kempton in November. Having made his challenge between runners, he has also recorded a quicker top speed than the winner (40.76 mph) and was quicker over the penultimate furlong, but he has hung to his left under pressure in the home straight and hasn’t been able to go with Royal Champion in the latter stages. He will also improve for his first run of the year and to be fair to Military Academy he has beaten the 110-rated Persica by 4-lengths here, but unlike the winner, he surely needs a better test of stamina than this, regardless of his fitness.
BetUK Hever Sprint Stakes (Listed Race)
Clarendon House had developed a bad habit of being slowly away from the stalls, but on Saturday that changed completely as he took just 5-seconds to reach 30 mph and ran the fastest opening furlong in 12.79s. Once in front, he has recorded a 10.19s 2nd furlong at a top speed of 40.77 mph, the best in the field and whilst having the stands rail has surely helped to keep him straight, he is the last horse to come under pressure and has repelled the late challenge of Marshman. The runner-up has admittedly conceded 3lbs to the winner, but he had the benefit of a recent run and so it is fair to say that Clarendon House has at least run to his official rating of 107. This was a 3rd win in 4 starts on an artificial surface for Robert Cowell’s 7-year-old and whilst there will always be risks at the start with him, he had previously broken the track record at Southwell and must be one of the leading contenders for the big sprint at the the end of the All-Weather Championships on this evidence.
Bahrain
H.H.SH. Nasser Bin Hamad Al Khalifa Stakes (Listed Race)
After winning the Crown Prince’s Cup here in impressive fashion 3-weeks ago, this looked to be a penalty kick for Phantom Flight, but Zagato clearly hadn’t read the script. This race followed a similar pattern to last month, with Signalman pulling hard from the gate, as has become his norm and setting some fast fractions, taking 50.32s to reach the 7-furlong pole. He faded in the home straight, but when Phantom Flight took up the running with 2-furlongs to run, it looked like he was going to deliver once again. However, once in front, he struggled and was no match for the winner over the final 2-furlongs. It’s hard to find a reason amongst the data from TPD to explain why Phantom Flight was beaten. His average stride length (25.23 ft) and his average stride frequency (2.19 strides per second) were slightly below the measurements recorded last time, but a drop of less than 2% ought not to have made such an enormous difference as this form may suggest. It is possible that a 3rd start in the space of 5-weeks was to blame, but instead I think we do need to give some praise to the winner, Zagato. Despite coming off the bridle at the top of the straight, he has kept on strongly, running the fastest split in each of the final 3-furlongs (11.65, 11.59 and 12.39s) to win by just under 4-lengths and clocking the highest top speed in the field at 40.04 mph.
You can find sectional times, stride data, speed statistics and jumping performance metrics on the At The Races RESULTS page.
The global database of sectional times, stride data and performance metrics is available through Total Performance Data.