This weekend’s racing review includes a look at the return of National Hunt racing to Windsor and some of the early trends from the TPD data. It is hard to draw any firm conclusions from a 7-race card, but there are some key pointers to note about track positioning and how the pace develops. Alongside that, we also have some key notes and highlights from the Middle East and the US.
Windsor
This was the first National Hunt meeting at Windsor for 20 years and as a result it was a blank canvas for the TPD data. However, it was also a blank canvas for the jockeys too and that reflected in the manner with which the opening races were run. Let’s take the 2nd race, the first on the chase course, as a working example. The race was run by the chasing debutante, Vincenzo, for Sam Thomas and Dylan Johnstone. He led most of the way, but in a race with a finishing speed of 116.28%, he benefited from turning into the home straight in front and whilst he ran the fastest penultimate furlong in 13.85s, that was the only time in the final 5-furlongs that he was the quickest. The Famous Five (3rd) ran the fastest final furlong in 14.07s, but his earlier jumping errors, particularly over the first few fences, where he lost 20.4% of his speed over his obstacles, cost him any chance. In fact, the Chase course proved to be a relatively stern test of jumping. There were 18 horses to complete the Chase course on Sunday and their average speed lost at their obstacles was 11.95%. It’s far too early to be drawing any firm conclusions from this, but only 5 of the 18 runners lost less than 10% of their speed and of those, only Hashting was successful.
Hashting was the only winner to come from mid-division and huge credit needs to go to Richie McLernon. He asked his mount to quicken with 4-furlongs to run, producing his fastest furlong of the race in 14.93s and increasing his stride frequency above 2 strides per second for the only time in the race at that point. This allowed Hashting to close on the early leader Duhallow Tommy before staying on best after the last. McLernon had clearly understood the need to get into a prominent position from the earlier races and that allowed him to make up the necessary ground at a crucial point.
The jockey’s inexperience of the track and caution may help to explain a couple of high profile defeats for Nicky Henderson’s hurdlers. Both Excello (12:12) and La Pinsonniere (13:20) were sent off as odds-on favourites before finishing 2nd, but the patience shown by Nico De Boinville, despite seemingly being in the ideal position, may have cost him the race. Both horses had a faster run-out speed than the winners after the line, but with finishing speeds of 113.04% and 106.38%, both proved vulnerable to the turn-of-foot shown by their conquerors. I should add the context that both Excello and La Pinsonniere are 0-5 over hurdles now, but the sweeping nature of the final bend means that the races on this card did not develop until the field turned for home and both may benefit from a more galloping track. The 4 hurdle races had finishing speeds of 113.04%, 106.38%, 109.20% and 107.81%, symptomatic of the patient approach taken by the jockeys as they get to know the nuances of the course and in time, the riders may adjust to the need to race prominently and be in position when the pace lifts off the home turn. All 4 winners were at the front at the 2-furlong pole as the course straightens for home and like many other speed based tracks, this trend is likely to continue.
Meydan
The Madjani Stakes sponsored by Nakheel (Arabian G2)
Unleashed dominates from the front, but the further they go, the more likely Kanaille de Faust is to reverse the form. Richard Mullen was very keen to get his mount to the front from gate 6 and once there he was able to control the pace. However, it was the runner-up, Kanaille de Faust who once again caught the eye. Having been forced to race 4-wide, he found himself with too much to do in the closing stages to run down the winner, but he made consistent progress over the closing furlongs to finish a never-nearer 2-length 2nd. This was the 3rd race in a row this season that Kanaille de Faust has had the fastest run-out speed in the field, clocking 31.65 mph 2-seconds after crossing the line to go with the 32.46 and 31.32 mph that he clocked after the winning post in November. In each race this season, he has struggled to maintain his speed around the bend, running furlongs of 14.15, 14.69 and 13.04s, but he has then run the fastest final furlong in the field on each occasion. This Arabian-bred Group 2 was run over a distance of 1-mile and 1-furlong and although he has previously struggled to win over extended trips, that form came at Abu Dhabi and he has looked to be a completely different horse since moving to Meydan. His run-out speeds and strong finishes would suggest that he has plenty left in the tank at the line and he looks worth following, particularly with a stronger test of stamina.
Palm Beach Towers Stakes
Noogool comes from the clouds to win. If you watch the replay of this contest, you’d be forgiven for thinking that Noogool had pulled up around the turn, as he isn’t even in the picture as they pass the 2-furlong pole. Visually, this makes for great TV and it’s amazing to see him flying down the outside, but this is very much a case of the tortoise and the hare. Noogool had a finishing speed of 101.33% and having run an even gallop on his racecourse debut under Andrew Slattery, he has been able to maintain his speed at a time when his main rivals were faltering. Those involved in the early battle for the lead had gone far too hard and paid for those exertions in the latter stages as their finishing speeds show; Golden Redemption (96.91%), Dark Saffron (96.43%) and Military Order (93.34%, eased down). The winner had won a trial race here at the end of November and looks to be a nice prospect for Bhupat Seemar, but this form needs treating with considerable caution given the manner in which the pace collapsed ahead of him.
Bahrain
National Day Cup by MOI
Sovereign Spirit wins in Bahrain again. Although he found the International Trophy a step too far last time, Sovereign Spirit returned to his best form to win for a 4th time in Bahrain in this local Group 1 event. This race was truly run, helped by the runaway leader Tartan Chief dragging the rest of the field along with some fast early fractions. He ran 13.03s for the 2nd furlong and 13.19s for the 4th, both of which were over half a second faster than anything else at the field and this left him as much as 10-lengths clear as they left the back straight. His effort petered out, but it allowed the race to develop into a proper test and that suited Sovereign Spirit, who closed in 37.03s from the 3-furlong pole to the line. His top speed of 40.11 mph was the best in the 5-runner field and that turn-of-foot proved too much for the runner-up (Zagato) in the latter stages. Whilst he may struggle to take on the International runners, there is a case to be made that Sovereign Spirit is the best locally trained horse and he should continue to win races as the Bahrain season heads into 2025.
United States
Gulfstream Park
Tropical Park Derby
Cugino wins under a brilliant ride from Irad Ortiz Jr, but are favourite backers right to feel a little aggrieved? This was a 3rd win in 9 starts for Cugino, who overcame a wide draw in stall 10 to win here. Having broken in 6.83 and 10.74s, Ortiz Jr found himself behind the early pace and had made his way to the inside rail by the time they reached the first turn. Initially forced to sit and wait for room, when the gap came around the last turn, his mount quickened easily, coming home in 11.21 and 10.92s, extending his stride to a peak 7.86m in the penultimate furlong with a stride frequency of 2.37 strides per second. He came wide and was driven to the front in the final 50-yards to win by a head from Full Nelson, who chased him home on the outside. Cugino was a deserved winner, but I do want to highlight the run of the beaten favourite, Silent Heart, who finished 3rd.
He broke smartly from stall 9 and had an ideal run round for Edgar Perez, sitting on the quarters of the early leader Fidelightcayut before kicking for home as they turned into the straight. Having hit the front with an 11.77s 7th furlong (the fastest in the race) he looked likely to win before being caught in the final 50-yards by the 2 closers. However, the TPD data suggests that perhaps Perez thought he had won the race. In the final furlong, Silent Heart’s stride frequency was 2.29 strides per second, slightly above his average of 2.28 and only 0.05 lower than the 2.34 that he produced in the 7th furlong. At 43.69 mph, he had a higher top speed than the winner (42.75 mph) and a run-out speed of 37.92 mph (ranked 4th) would suggest the horse was not entirely “empty” in a race with a finishing speed of 103.6%. There were 4 races run on
the turf track on Saturday evening and this was the slowest finishing speed (the others being 98.13%, 102.10% and 103.54%) and having raced in an ideal position, Silent Heart’s connections may feel this is a race that got away.