We are into April and with thoughts beginning to turn towards the first Classics of the season, this week’s review of the TPD data will focus on the contenders for the 2,000 Guineas that we have seen in the last week. The Juddmonte team seem to have an embarrassment of riches in that department this year and the data from TPD would offer considerable hope that both of their impressive winners from the last 7-days will be competitive in the Group 1 races next month.
Kempton
9th April 2025 – Unibet Novice Stakes
Cosmic Year was the first horse from the Juddmonte team to appear after being re-routed to Kempton on Wednesday evening instead of taking up his entry in the Greenham stakes 3-days later. Even with a 7lb penalty, this was a relatively simple assignment and the form is relatively hard to assess given the fact that the placed horses were both debutantes who were able to control the pace from the front. However, Harry Charlton made it clear that the point of this race was to educate him and that the instructions to Oisin Murphy were to “teach him something in the final furlong”. On that score, it was surely job done. Having settled behind the leaders, he quickened readily when asked for an effort by Murphy, clocking the highest top speed in the field at 42.19 mph and galloping through the line with a run-out speed of 39.55 mph (1st), clocking an impressive 10.76 and 10.86s for the last 2-furlongs. This was a very taking performance, but his trainers post race interview, where he stated that he needed to discuss the plans with the Juddmonte team and that he would prefer “not to run on quick ground going up and down in those dips” might suggest that he is more likely to run in Ireland or in France rather than at Newmarket. Either way, he has announced himself as one of the leading 3-year-old Colts in the UK and his credentials have only been enhanced by this performance.
Newbury
12th April 2025 – Watership Down Stud Too Darn Hot Greenham Stakes (G3)
There were 7 races at Newbury on Saturday and in each of them, the winner can be described as racing prominently. That’s perhaps not surprising given the going description of “Good, Good to Firm in places”, but it does mean that there were a number of horses that were inconvenienced by racing towards the rear of the field. The result would not have changed in the Greenham, Jonquil was the best horse on the day by some distance, but there are certain points that need to be made from the data collected by TPD to forgive some of these 3-year-olds who may well be perceived to have disappointed. The horses drawn in stalls 6-10 filled the first 5 places and whilst it may only be a small point, it is worth noting that these 5 horses raced in single file towards the stands rail when the field split in the early stages. The 5th placed Yah Mo Be There switched groups at halfway and did run on in the closing stages having raced in rear. He was just 0.34s slower than the winner over the final 3-furlongs and was actually faster than the runner-up over those closing furlongs. This was a first start in 267-days for Richard Spencer’s horse and he is the first horse to add to my notes for this race as worth forgiving. Having been dropped in behind runners after taking 7.2s to reach 30 mph from the gate, he was always on the back foot, but I liked the way that he finished his race after picking up the pace at halfway. He won a Listed race here in July and ought to find more opportunities now that he has made his return.
It was a similar story for Diablo Rojo, who finished 4th. He sat towards the rear of the stands side group and was outpaced before staying on, coming home in 11.34 and 12.30s. He clocked a run-out speed of 34.78 mph and has run a career best here, although we need to allow for the fact that he did have the benefit of a recent run on the All-Weather at Lingfield. There’s no doubt that he has tracked the right horses through, but he has stuck to his task to pass Yah Mo Be There in the final strides. Ahead of him in 3rd was Saracen, who ran a fine race given his lack of experience and he certainly wasn’t knocked about by Christophe Soumillon when it became clear that he wasn’t going to win. At 41.25 mph, he recorded the highest top speed figure in the field, but his experience told at a crucial stage as he shifted right and then left when corrected by his rider in the penultimate furlong. That allowed the first 2 to get away from him, but under a hands ride he finished in 12.27s, just 0.07s slower than Rashabar and given this was only his 2nd start, he should be open to any amount of improvement. Are there better Guineas prospects than Saracen in Ireland? Almost certainly, but he confirmed that he has the necessary speed to be competitive at this level and is a horse to note for the remainder of the season for Joseph O’Brien.
The winning time of 1:24.42s was 0.47s slower than the Fillies in the Fred Darling 35-minutes earlier and despite the quick under foot conditions, the winning time is only the 8th fastest in this race since 2005. This year’s Greenham had a finishing speed of 103.6% and as we can see from the TPD Pace Chart above, they went along at an even gallop, which did give Jonquil and Rashabar the best chance. They have run the fastest final 2-furlongs and pulled nicely clear of the rest, but I have no doubt that Jonquil has surpassed Rashabar and unless the ground turns soft, I don’t see any reason from the data to make a case for this form being reversed. With a top speed of 40.78 mph, Rashabar was the slowest horse on the speed clock in the first 6 home and he lost 0.22s on the winner over the final quarter of a mile when the taps were turned on despite racing in the ideal position. His stride frequency dropped from an average of 2.46 per second in the penultimate furlong to 2.36 per second in the last, a smaller decrease than Jonquil (2.59 to 2.41 per second), but he wasn’t able to match the cruising speed of the winner and as he found at Longchamp in October, he just lacked the turn-of-foot in the penultimate furlong. He is an honest horse and set a good standard for the others to aim at, but there is a sense from the data that he has been beaten by an improving 3-year-old here.
Now we come to the winner. This was an extremely impressive display on just his 3rd career start from Jonquil and if there was a Classic winner in this field, then it was surely him. Travelling strongly under Oisin Murphy, he has run the fastest individual furlongs in the closing stages (11.21, 12.01s) and has maintained an average stride length of 6.94m for each of those furlongs at the same time. Having travelled strongly, he readily responded when asked for his effort and he hit the line strongly, recording the fastest run-out speed in the field at 36.08 mph. If we assume that Rashabar has run his race, then it’s fair to assume that Jonquil has run to mark in the region of 115 to win here. There is still work to do if he is to win at Group 1 level next month and he was ideally placed by Oisin Murphy, but he has proved to be a class apart on the day and is surely open to further improvement. Andrew Balding’s post race interview seemed to imply that he thought the horse would stay the mile distance, although with so many promising 3-year-olds in the Juddmonte colours this year, it remains to be seen where he will fit into their pecking order and it is worth noting that Jonquil has entries in both the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket and the Prix D’Essai des Poulains at Paris Longchamp. He’s a relatively compact horse. An average stride length of 7.17m saw him ranked 8th in this field, but he has the ability to cruise at a high speed and looks to have all of the attributes needed to be competitive in a Guineas, wherever that may be.
I will finish my assessment of the Greenham with a small note on those who ran in the far side group. Al Qudra and Rogue Allegiance were the fastest horses into stride, both taking 6.2s to reach 30 mph. The latter was far too keen in the early stages and didn’t see out his race, but the former had no real excuse and having been race fit from a campaign in the middle east, it’s hard to find too many reasons to forgive this performance, especially as his connections could offer no explanation for his lacklustre effort to the stewards after the race. Chancellor had every chance at the 3-furlong pole, but despite running 11.14s for the 5th furlong, the fastest individual split in the field, he took a long time to master Al Qudra and was readily outpaced in the closing stages. He should improve for the run and he has tracked the wrong leader into the latter stages, but it’s hard to see how he reverses the form with Jonquil if they were to meet again. If there is a horse to add to the tracker from the far side group, it needs to be the 7th placed Noble Champion. This was just his 3rd career start and given that he raced in the “wrong” group and had to make his effort widest of all, he finished his race well, closing in 12.24s (ranked 3rd) with the 2nd fastest run-out speed of 35.05 mph. This was a big step forward from his Novice win at Lingfield in November and he would almost certainly have finished closer if he had been drawn in a higher numbered stall. Ed Walker’s 3-year-old has run a career best here and is worth noting next time.
Keeneland
On the other side of the Atlantic the meeting at Keeneland got underway this week and there were several 2-year-old performances from the Wesley Ward team. That name has become synonymous with the 2-year-old races at Royal Ascot in recent years, so for the 2nd part of this week’s review, I have looked at the data from some of those Juvenile races to assess whether these 2-year-olds have the potential to make their mark at Ascot in June.
7th April 2025 – Race 1 – Maiden Special Weight
The Keeneland April meeting will always produce some eye-catching maiden winners and we began on Monday afternoon with a very impressive debut from Pinky Finger who created a striking impression on debut. Sent off an Even money favourite, she burst out of the starting stalls, running 6.43s to the 4-furlong pole and clocking an impressive top speed of 44.54 mph. Once in front, she took a breather with an 11.41s 3rd furlong before pulling away in the closing stages under a motionless Joel Rosario. Her head carriage was slightly high in the home straight, but that wouldn’t be anything that I would dwell on given the fact that she was already 3-lengths clear by that stage. Her early speed was her greatest asset and she recorded an average of 2.66 strides per second in that opening burst that allowed her to get to the front from stall 8. Is she a Royal Ascot filly? Only Wesley Ward will be able to answer that question, but on the limited evidence that we have from this debut, if she does come to Ascot in June, it is fair to assume that she will be in front at the end of the first furlong.
10th April 2025 – Race 1 – Maiden Special Weight
Thursday afternoon also started with another impressive 2-year-old winner for Wesley Ward, but this race did not go the way that the market expected. Ashkenazi was sent off a very short priced favourite, but despite running the fastest opening splits in 6.32 and 10.29s to the 3-furlong pole, he faded tamely in the home straight and was outclassed by his stablemate. Double Talker is a gelding by Hootenanny and although his stablemate was clearly thought to be the more likely winner, there is a lot to like about this debut. Drawn wide in stall 7, he had to be driven into an early position behind the leader, but an eye-catching 10.23s 2nd furlong got him into the correct position and the 45.12 mph that he clocked at that point was a clear best in this field. Once into the home straight, he challenged on the outside of the leaders and kept on well under a hands drive. The 3rd placed Baytown Dreamer has run a faster final furlong in 12.77s and with the best run-out speed in the field at 33.24 mph, he is probably a horse to note with 6-furlongs in mind, but the winner was by far the best horse on the day. Not every 2-year-old that Wesley Ward runs at this meeting can head to Royal Ascot and given that his stablemate has disappointed here, it’s hard to know where this horse would sit in the pecking order at home. However, he showed a superb turn-of-foot on the run to the far turn and saw out his race in the manner of a good horse, shaping like the stiff finish up the Ascot hill in June could be within his range.
11th April 2025 – Race 2 – Maiden Special Weight
Given that she was sent off at a very short SP, Gorrono Ranch may well be perceived as a disappointment after finishing 2nd on her debut on Friday evening, but that would be an unfair assessment of her first visit to the track. The winner, Folk Song, had a dream run around the bend under Sophie Doyle, running 17.11s to the 3-furlong pole and controlling the pace into the home straight as a result. Gorrono Ranch sat on her hind quarters around the bend and had to be nudged along to sit within range of the leader. Covering more ground around the turn, she wasn’t able to get herself on terms and tired in the closing stages as her average stride length dropped from a race peak of 7.48m to 6.82m in the final furlong. Unlike her stablemates, this debut run didn’t go entirely to plan and the competition for the lead with a well schooled winner has proved a step too far. However, at 44.2 mph, she had the highest top speed in the field and had to work much harder than the winner to have a chance in the home straight. Folk Song has run a very efficient race and her performance shouldn’t be overshadowed by the runner-up given that she was ranked in the first 2 for each of the 5 sectional splits. The 3rd placed Storm Cloud Rising had the longest average stride in the field at 7.59m and also emerged from this race with great credit. She will surely be suited by a step up to 6-furlongs in the future and the 3 of them have pulled nicely clear of the rest. As an individual piece of form, this was the 2-year-old race that most caught my eye this week and there are reasons to be positive about all of the horses to hit the frame.
You can find sectional times, stride data, speed statistics and jumping performance metrics on the At The Races RESULTS page.
The global database of sectional times, stride data and performance metrics is available through Total Performance Data.