This weekend’s racing was billed as the big clash between Sir Gino and Mystical Power at Newcastle. That didn’t quite transpire as the latter fluffed his lines, but I don’t think that should detract from what was still a Grade 1 performance from the winner. Here is my analysis of this weekend’s highlights from Newcastle and Newbury, including a look at TPDs Jumping Fluency data which told a fascinating story in the Coral Gold Cup and which gave an early pointer for a possible Grand National contender.
Newcastle
BetMGM Fighting Fifth Hurdle
Sir Gino steps easily into his stablemate’s shoes. The longest stride (24.11 ft), the highest top speed (35.30 mph), the best run-out speed (30.71 mph) and the 2 fastest individual furlongs of the race (13.22, 13.10s). This was a Grade 1 performance by Sir Gino, who cantered clear of Lump Sum to win by 8-lengths. Mystical Power disappointed and was in trouble from a long way out, but that shouldn’t detract from a very slick performance from the winner who is rightly towards the head of the Champion Hurdle market. There will be inevitable comparisons made between Sir Gino and Constitution Hill and as a 4-year-old rising 5, why not enjoy those thoughts. This was a good performance, but he was still 1.04s slower than his stablemate was when winning this race in 2022 on ground officially described as Good to Soft, so he isn’t quite at those heights yet on the clock.
Huge credit needs to go to Lump Sum in 2nd, who has produced a career best to chase the winner home. The data suggested that he might be best of the rest and so it proved after an excellent ride from Dylan Johnston, who kept his mount covered up for as long as possible. He will win races at this level, but it is also worth noting that he was slower than Sir Gino over 7 of the last 8 furlongs.
BetMGM Rehearsal Handicap Chase
Frero Banbou jumps his rivals ragged. So often a bridesmaid, Frero Banbou rewarded his connections’ patience with a dominant staying performance to win the Rehearsal under Ned Fox. His jumping fluency stands out on the card. Having lost an average of just 6.5% of his speed over his fences in the closing stages, he comes out as the most fluent jumper in the field and with a variation of just 0.31% between the start of the race and the finish (6.81%, 6.66% and 6.5%), his consistency made all the difference. If we compare his jumping to that of the runner-up, The Changing Man, it highlights the point. At an average of 10.94%, he was losing 4% more speed than the winner at each fence in the home straight, a crucial stat that inhibited his chances in a race where he possessed a higher top speed than the winner. This was a 3rd win in 27 starts for the winner and he will need to prove that he can back up this performance, which he has so far failed to do in his career, but his jumping will not be the thing to hold him back.
Newbury
Coral Long Distance Hurdle
Langer Dan isn’t fooling anybody. We can all debate the way that Langer Dan has been campaigned in the last 2 seasons. Whatever you may think of the “tactics” employed, the horse has won a pair of Coral Cups at the Cheltenham festival and was unlucky to finish 3rd in a Grade 1 at Aintree. I don’t think he is likely to get down to a mark of 141 again this time around but there is some data from the Long Distance Hurdle on Friday to suggest that he is probably a Stayers’ Hurdle contender. I won’t get into the riding tactics too much, but in a race with a finishing speed of 111.37%, he was always going to be vulnerable by being held up in the rear of the 4 strong field. The pace lifted with 5-furlongs to run and at this point Langer Dan ran a 14.20s furlong, compared to the 14.31s run by the winner Strong Leader. Having quickened, he is then caught behind the tiring Flight Leader, whose Stride Length and Stride Frequency are decreasing from the top of the home straight (Peak 7.16m reducing to 6.43m) which checks Langer Dan’s progress and allows Strong Leader and Monmiral to scoot clear. However, Langer Dan does gallop through the line and his run-out speed of 29.06 mph, taken 2-seconds after he crossed the line, is significantly higher than his 3 rivals. I’d also like to highlight his jumping efficiency. He lost an average of just 4% of his speed over his hurdles and as little as 3.3% in the middle part of the race, easily the most efficient performance in the race. He jumps well, he clearly stays well, he’s run better than a 12-length defeat might suggest and with a solid record at the festival in the Spring, he is a player in an open stayers division if he gets his chance.
Coral Gold Cup Handicap Chase
Kandoo Kid delivers for Paul Nicholls. A lightly raced 2nd season chaser wins the Coral Gold Cup. It’s a tried and tested approach to this race and Kandoo Kid was by far the best horse on the day. His Jumping data shows him losing just 7.2% of his speed at his obstacles in the closing stages, the best in the field and that ultimately proved to be key. Huge credit needs to go to both the winner and the runner-up Broadway Boy, who have taken each other on from a long way out. Ultimately, in a race of fine margins, it is Kandoo Kids ability to kick in the penultimate furlong (running 14.44s compared to the 14.81s of Broadway Boy) and his more fluent jumping in the closing stages that has sealed the deal. Was this a brilliant renewal of this race? Probably not. There isn’t a Gold Cup contender in this field and although it was truly run with a finishing speed of 104.36%, this needs to be treated as handicap form. The winner and runner-up are now highly likely to be rated above 150 and that will make things tougher, but if there is a horse to take from this it is perhaps the 6th placed Senior Chief.
Having lost an average of 11.3% of his speed at his fences, his jumping has let him down, but it should be noted that he ran the fastest final furlong in the field (14.34s) and he ought to be left alone on a mark of 151 at worst. After just 6 starts over fences, he is still open to improve his jumping and although he was pulled-up in the Irish Grand National last year, that came after a very light Novice chase campaign and with the benefit of experience and better technique, he could be a player in one of the Nationals in the Spring, with perhaps the softer fences of the modern Grand National the most likely to suit him.
For a brief moment, I was concerned that General en Chef was coming to pick his pocket under a very cute ride from Benjamin Gelhay. Having analysed French Racing for a living for some time, I was relatively cool on his chances of seeing out the trip at Newbury and looked likely to have egg on my face as they turned in. However, having reached the 2nd last on terms, he faded into 4th and his final furlong of 16.20s was the slowest of the 7 horses who finished within 10-lengths of the winner. Victorrino will be in a lot of notebooks, having been given far too much to do, he has run home in 14.39s, easily the fastest final furlong of the race. However, over the final 5-furlongs, he closed in 73.06s compared to 73.53s taken by Kandoo Kid. Having been ridden more patiently, I’d expect him to be closing from the rear and the fact that he is the only horse in the first 5 whose stride frequency doesn’t decrease in the final furlong, I suspect it is a case that he as run on passing beaten horses rather than as an unlucky loser on the day.
Jebel Ali
Zayed & Rashid Initiative Handicap
Asad Zabeel shines on his comeback. Highly tried in his time in France with Jean-Claude Rouget, Asad Zabeel made it 2 wins from 8 starts in the UAE with an impressive 2-length win over the race fit Mawthog under Silvestre De Sousa. Despite having the shortest maximum stride length in the field at 23.96 ft, Asad Zabeel was able to gallop his rivals into submission in the final furlong. Having sought to keep his mount covered up, De Sousa asked his mount to quicken through the gap when it came with 300-metres to run and the response was instant, with an increase to 2.53 strides per second, the fastest in the field. He clocked 40.73 mph at his peak and with the best run-out speed in the field at 31.27 mph, there was no fluke about this. Last season he was a winner over 7-furlongs at the Meydan Carnival and he is best forgiven for his 2 runs after that victory, when he was pitched into a Group 3 and then asked to turn out at Jebel Ali just a fortnight later. Refreshed after a break, he looked back to his best and despite the inevitable handicap rise, he should be competitive in the weeks to come.