It’s a shorter review than usual this weekend, but before we get to the Christmas festivities, it is worth taking a few moments to look at the TPD Data from Ascot and Meydan this weekend, where both Crambo and Measured Time produced career-best performances.
Ascot
Howden Long Walk Hurdle (G1)
Crambo gives Fergal O’Brien another Grade 1 Christmas present. This was a superb training performance from Fergal O’Brien, who delivered his stable star to perfection despite a layoff of over 250 days. Crambo confirmed himself as a strong stayer, producing the fastest run-out speed of 29.97 mph despite probably hitting the front sooner than ideal. The winning time of 6:06.84 is slower than last year, which is understandable given the slower ground and rain falling during the day, but it does compare well with the most recent winner on the same going description, Champ in 2021 (6:08.45). I’d certainly make a case that the victory over the improving Hiddenvalley Lake is much stronger form than last year’s narrow win over an ageing Paisley Park. In a race of fine margins, the jumping proved to be the key. The winner lost an average of 5.2% speed at his hurdles, compared to the runner-up Hiddenvalley Lake (5.6%) and the 3rd-placed Beauport (6.8%), but it was in the closing stages that he proved to be the more efficient. Crambo lost just 3.9% of his speed over his hurdles in the closing stages, an improvement on the 4.1% lost in the middle part of the race, but when compared with Hiddenvalley Lake (5.0% from 4.1% middle) there is a case to be made for his jumping efficiency being the difference in a race he won by a head. After winning this race 12-months ago, Crambo’s form tailed off and he now needs to prove that he can repeat this away from Ascot, which he has previously failed to do.
We should also heap praise upon Jonathan Burke, who has managed to win despite having the slowest top speed in the field (33.42 mph) and being fastest in just 3 of the 24 furlongs run. This was an efficient ride in a race where his mount never dipped below 14-seconds for an individual furlong and he has done exceptionally well to deliver his mount to the front at a crucial stage as they turned for home.
Given this was just his 9th start, Hiddenvalley Lake has lost very little in defeat. The TPD Post Race Data shows that he clocked a faster top speed than the winner (34.25 mph) but he seemed to be outpaced when Beauport increased the pace with a half a mile to run and I think it is worth noting that he didn’t reach his peak stride frequency of 2.2 strides per second until the 23rd of the 24-furlongs. His best efforts have come at Aintree, Navan and Cork and he may simply be better suited by a longer straight where he has more time to reach top gear. Crambo has form over shorter trips earlier in his career and has saved all of his best efforts for Ascot, so were the 2 to meet on again at a track like Cheltenham or Aintree, there is a fair chance that Hiddenvalley Lake might reverse this form.
The disappointment of the race was Strong Leader, who trailed in last of the 10-runners despite being sent off the 11/8 favourite. The TPD Data that I discussed in the preview for this race did highlight the fact that his best performances had come on flatter tracks and after this below-par effort, this is surely where he heads in future. At an average of 8.6% speed lost, his jumping fluency was considerably below the efficiency he showed when winning the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury (6.6%) and both his average stride length (22.11 ft) and stride frequency (1.94 per second) were below what he showed at Newbury as well. He is surely now campaigned for the Liverpool Hurdle at Aintree which he won so impressively in April on a more suitable track.
Meydan
Al Rashidiya Stakes (G2) sponsored by Emaar
Measured Time breaks the clock. When a horse is sent off at an SP of 1 / 6 in the International markets, it’s no surprise to see them go on to win, but this was a statement making performance from Measured Time, who broke the track record over 9-furlongs at Meydan on Friday evening. Having been keen at the start, he was the fastest horse over the opening furlong in 14.38s and once in front, never looked like being caught despite racing keenly at times in the hands of William Buick. A top speed of 41.07 mph was the fastest in the field, but despite dipping below 11s in the 4th furlong (10.98s), he still had enough left in the tank to come home in 11.33 and 12.08s, the fastest time over the closing 2-furlongs. Huge credit needs to go to William Buick, he was able to conserve enough energy around the bend (he ran 11.49s for the 6th furlong, the slowest time in the field) to leave his mount with a finishing kick and it is hard to see anything reversing this form from in behind Measured Time. This was a 2nd win in a row in the Al Rashidiya for this son of Frankel, but he managed to shave 1.86s off last year’s time, despite the fact he was carrying an extra 5 lbs and having to make all the running this time around. He has early speed, he can conserve energy despite racing keenly and he has a strong finishing kick, it is hard to find any reason to oppose him next time he runs and he has clearly produced the best performance of the season so far in Dubai on Friday evening