Limerick Lace was the winner of this race 12-months ago when getting the better of Dinoblue on soft ground. That was a career best and it is fair to say that she hasn’t been in the same form since, which would raise obvious doubts, especially under different conditions. Last year, she hit the front in the straight, but Dinoblue ran a faster final furlong in 17.97s before Limerick Lace picked up again after the last with a better run-out speed of 23 mph. She may have been idling slightly in front, but that will make this a more difficult task on drying ground, and she would need to prove that she has the speed required for a drier surface. She recorded a top speed of 33.71 mph last year, slower than the next 3 mares to chase her home. Coming into this race on the back of a 25-length defeat behind Allegorie de Vassy, it’s hard to find too much confidence at this stage.
Brides Hill has won 5 times over fences, but she was beaten fairly by Telepathique at Huntingdon, and she was also beaten on her penultimate start at Doncaster too, where she jumped poorly, losing an average of 11.9% of her speed over her fences. The Huntingdon race was slowly run, which perhaps suited the winner, but she lost 0.69s over the final 2-furlongs and her top speed of 32.73 mph, might leave her outpaced in this race.
The case for Dinoblue is an obvious one. She has outstanding form against the geldings, including a 2-length defeat behind Banbridge at Punchestown last April. As we can see from the data last year, the softer ground did look to blunt her speed, but she still had a better top speed than the winner (34.05 mph) as well as a quicker final furlong. Initially, she may have been seen as disappointing in her first couple of starts this season, but in hindsight, the defeats behind Energumene (and Banbridge) and Solness look more reasonable and this is certainly a drop in class on those terms. She was a winner at Naas on her latest start, but she came home in 16.23 and 15.44s that day compared with the 16.06 and 15.34s run by the runner-up, Allegorie de Vassy. The runner-up had the stands side rail to help and in a 3-runner race it’s hard to form too many strong opinions, but perhaps at this stage of her career she is now ready for the intermediate trip, especially on drying ground. However, I also should point out that 6 of her 7 wins have come on ground described as soft or heavy and her only win when the word “good” appeared in the going description came in handicap company at Punchestown. This race needs to be truly run to see her at her best on the ground and if it develops into a sprint, she may well be vulnerable to the younger mares who possess more speed.
Allegorie De Vassy has that speed, but at this trip she is surely vulnerable? She had the fastest top speed in last year’s race, recording 34.63 mph, but she was beaten by 6 lengths and lost 1.11s on Dinoblue over the final 2-furlongs. She has had a couple of tries at this race already and come up short and whilst she has won races over this distance, all her chase wins have come in fields of 6-runners or less and I suspect that her win at Fairyhouse in January was exaggerated by the underperformance of Limerick Lace. She came home in 16.18 and 16.02s in isolation, but the 3rd placed Malina Girl was quicker (16.05 and 15.77s) and as a piece of form, I would have to question it in the context of this race. The race should have suited her at Naas last month and she had the rail to help but couldn’t get past Dinoblue and over an extra 4-furlongs, I don’t expect the form to be reversed.
Dinoblue does have a penalty to carry and when looking for a horse to make a case for in receipt of weight, Royale Margaux was the most obvious. She had some solid form in France, including a Listed win over fences at Auteuil in June 2022. Although she has taken a long time to deliver on that early promise, she was a winner at Warwick over hurdles on her latest start. We do perhaps need to acknowledge that You Wear It Well came down at the last and that the result was far from certain at that point. However, Royale Margaux did run the fastest final 2-furlongs in 13.91 and 14.86s and she had the fastest run-out speed in the field at 28.95 mph, so we can say with some confidence that she did have something left after crossing the line. The drop back to an intermediate trip at Warwick seemed to help too and given that all her 6 career wins have come in races between 2-miles and 2-miles 5-furlongs, there is every chance that this race will be run to suit. She doesn’t have the class of the Willie Mullins Mares’, but she could be a lively outsider to hit the frame.
Dinoblue sets the standard. She is likely to run to a mark in the mid-150s at least and that is the level that the others will need to get to. She has matured and if she runs her race, she will be hard to beat. However, the market tells us that there are a couple of potential improvers who may come past her, as there have been on her previous visits to the Cheltenham festival, although admittedly she was a little unlucky when 2nd to Maskada in the Grand Annual of 2023. The assumption that she doesn’t stay this far is a little unfair and both her run-out speed and finishing data from last year’s race would look to disprove that theory. It is hard to make a case that she doesn’t deserve to win at the festival and in a field of Mares’ that she should hold on form, she may well get her turn at last. I think the data suggests she will win, and she would be my first pick in the race, but there is also a small case to be made for Royale Margaux to outrun her odds. She has taken a lot of time to mature since joining Tom Symonds, but they seem to have dispensed with the idea of her being a 3-miler and in receipt of 5lbs at her optimum trip, she is too big to be ignored as an each-way alternative and a new form line coming into this race.
You can find sectional times, stride data, speed statistics and jumping performance metrics on the At The Races RESULTS page.
The global database of sectional times, stride data and performance metrics is available through Total Performance Data.