When a Cheltenham festival is described as “hard work for punters”, that generally means it’s unpredictable and whilst our betting accounts may not always agree, the ability to cause surprises is ultimately what makes this sport so great. The use of data can tell you so many things, but no matter how many hours you spend looking at it, I don’t think any data could have predicted the series of events that led to Golden Ace winning the Champion hurdle last Tuesday. Those moments are the things that we will remember from this festival and whilst we couldn’t predict it, it was fantastic to see a smaller set of connections rolling the dice and landing the jackpot. For everything else, there’s data. Here’s a look through some of the highlights of this year’s Cheltenham festival and what the data can tell us.
Michael O’Sullivan Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
A winning time of 3:52.04 would suggest that this was an above average Supreme Novices’ hurdle on the clock. In the last 10 years, the only winners to run faster than that were Constitution Hill (2022), Altior (2016), Douvan (2015) and Vautour (2014). It’s far too early to put Kopek des Bordes in that company and we must allow for the fact that the ground did allow for a good time figure to be produced, but this still suggests the first 3 have above average ability as novice hurdlers, especially with a race run with a finishing speed of 99.27%. I’d actually like to start my look at this race with the 3rd placed Romeo Coolio. Having taken a lead from Workahead, Jack Kennedy must have been delighted with his position as they climbed out of the back straight, but when the leader began to fade after the 4th from home, that left Romeo Coolio in front far sooner than could have been anticipated. Leading the field down the hill, he jumped slightly to his right and clipped the top bar on both hurdles before the straight, jinking as he was joined by Kopek des Bordes around the bend. Once headed he was never likely to recover and over the final 2-furlongs he lost 1.34s on the winner, but he jumped the last straight and kept on to hold 3rd place. His run-out speed of 21.34 mph was the slowest of the first 8 horses to cross the line, but given the energy used in front from the top of the hill, that can be forgiven. His top speed of 37.74 mph was only surpassed by Kopek des Bordes and the data would suggest that he does have the ability to win in this company, but he would surely prefer a lead into the latter part of the contest.
Kopek Des Bordes had the best top speed of 37.89 mph and although he had the ideal setup behind the pace, his penultimate furlong (13.44s) was the fastest in the field and the 3-lengths gained on the approach to the last was the key to his victory. A lot was made of the application of the hood and for the first 7 flights it did seem to help him settle and jump better. He made a mistake at the last and was perhaps a little fortunate that the runner-up also missed the final flight, but having hit the front in the straight, he always looked to be holding on. Kopek des Bordes possesses the raw speed necessary to win a race like the Supreme, but I wouldn’t like to rule out the possibility of William Munny reversing this form. Barry Connell’s charge has been steadily improving and his effort in the latter stages of the race would suggest that he is closing on the winner with every start. Having come from 3-lengths behind the winner at the top of the hill, he has lost 0.37s on him in the penultimate furlong, but he subsequently made up 0.27s of that in the final furlong, despite making a mistake at the last and racing towards the centre of the track. He ran 16.01s for the final furlong, the 2nd best in the field and his run-out speed of 25.9 mph, taken 2-seconds after he crossed the line, was better than the 25.46 mph recorded by Kopek des Bordes. There is very little between them in the data and so there is no guarantee that this form will be upheld in future. Barry Connell mentioned in an interview this week that Novice chasing was the plan and if he takes to fences, there is no reason to think that he won’t be a contender in the Arkle next year.
I’d also give a small mention to Karniquet. He finished 4th, ultimately beaten 11-lengths, but he has run a solid race and there are reasons to be optimistic for his future. Having been given a mark of 146, he was handicapped out of the Martin Pipe which may well have suited better, but he has finished in 14.66 and 16.47s, faster than Romeo Coolio and although his top speed of 36.98 mph was behind the principles, he has shown a level of form that suggests he may yet be capable of going close in a Grade 1. He wore a hood for the first time on Tuesday, but in France he wore a tongue-tie and I wonder if he needs a little assistance with his breathing to bring out the improvement needed. He has traveled nicely into this race, as he did when chasing home Kopek des Bordes at the Dublin Racing Festival, but he lost ground in the penultimate furlong on both occasions before staying on and may need a little assistance to finish his races. I don’t think he is likely to reverse this defeat, but he has finished 8-lengths clear of the rest of the field despite chasing 3 top class horses for the final 4-furlongs and he may be able to get closer.
I won’t comment here on the fact that only 1 British runner lined up for this race. Tutti Quanti has actually run reasonably well to finish 6th having been outpaced at halfway, fully 4.09s behind the winner with 4-furlongs to run. He stayed on to pass beaten horses, but he clocked 15.75s for the final furlong, the best in the field, and looks to have comfortably outrun his official rating of 125. There isn’t a lot to be gleaned from the rest of the runners. Rachel Blackmore reported to the Stewards that Workahead stopped quickly and although the Vet found no issues post-race, he clearly didn’t run to form despite setting a fair gallop. The first 4 to cross the line were the first 4 to turn for home at the top of the hill and despite the pace set in the middle part of the race, none of the maiden hurdle winners were able to get involved. Each of the first 5 to cross the line had previously run in Grade 1 company and that experience clearly told.
My Pension Expert Arkle Challenge Trophy (Grade 1)
Steeple-chasing is about jumping and if you don’t jump the fences, you’re unlikely to win the race. I have no doubt from the data that Majborough was the best horse in the Arkle this year, but if you make the kind of mistakes that he did, there is always a price to pay. The signs were there, having left his back legs in the 4th last at the top of the hill, he crashed through the 2nd last and could easily have been forgiven for trailing home in 4th after that. However, to his enormous credit, Majborough rallied, running 14.95s for the final furlong and recording a run-out speed of 29.59 mph, the best in the field, despite another error at the final fence when landing on all fours. He clearly has the engine required to be a top-class chaser and if he had jumped the last 2 fences, I have no doubt that he would have won, but he didn’t, so it’s irrelevant at this stage.
Jango Baie and in particular Nico de Boinville perhaps aren’t getting the credit they deserve. Despite jumping off in front, De Boinville quickly realised that his mount was unlikely to sustain the early gallop and he chose to back off, losing 1.35s on Majborough between the 5th and 8th furlongs. Did the pace collapse in front of him? Well that’s certainly true for Only By Night, she dropped to just 28.63 mph in the final furlong, but as we can see from the pace chart above, Majborough does rally in the closing stages and they are both travelling at 29.4 mph in the penultimate furlong. The mistakes by Majborough affect his speed, but Jango Baie has run 13.86s for the final furlong, a faster time than Myretown (14.65s), Marine Nationale (15.68s) and Jazzy Matty (15.69s) and the assumption that he stays further and that was the reason for his victory is not entirely accurate. He recorded a top speed of 37.2 mph, a figure only surpassed by Only By Night (37.4 mph) and whilst De Boinville’s decision to drop away from the early pace has ultimately won him the race, he has made up 0.54s on the runner-up in the final 2-furlongs at a finishing speed of 104.93% to suggest that he isn’t lacking for a turn-of-foot when he needs it. When we compare his winning time of 3:53.57 to the last 5 renewals of this race run on ground described as good to soft, he ranks 5th of 6, with only Altior (2016) coming home in a slower time and he was allowed to canter home at short odds. The assumption that Jango Baie won because the leaders went too hard is not entirely true and he may yet prove to have the speed to be competitive over 2-miles in open company.
The riders of Only By Night and L’Eau du Sud would both have preferred Majborough to keep going and had he not made a mistake at the 2nd last, they may have had a better chance of running him down up the hill. However, having been left in front at the last, they have both lost over a second to the winner in the final furlong and look to have had every chance without quite getting home.
Turners Novices’ Hurdle
It isn’t all bad news for the home team and if there is a Novice hurdler to be excited about from this year’s festival, it simply has to be The New Lion. He had been an extremely efficient jumper in his earlier starts at Newbury, losing an average of just 3.5% of his speed over his obstacles in the Challow hurdle and with the exception of a long reach for the last flight, he repeated his nimble jumping performance on Wednesday. Potter’s Charm set a fair gallop which produced a winning time of 5:11.07, that was 0.91s faster than Jimmy du Seuil recorded when winning the Coral Cup an hour later, though it was slower than the times recorded by Bob Olinger (2021) and Willoughby Court (2017) on the previous 2 occasions when this race was run on Good to Soft ground.
Sat behind the pace on the inside, The New Lion was always covered up by Harry Skelton and even when Final Demand loomed alongside the leader around the home turn, Skelton sat still, confident in the speed his mount possessed to get him there at the right time. Once into the straight, The New Lion ran 13.85 and 15.37s for the final 2-furlongs, both of which were the fastest individual furlongs in the field and 0.5s faster than Kopek des Bordes ran 24-hours earlier. The Yellow Clay jumped the last in front, but he was allowed to drift to his right, an offence for which Jack Kennedy received a 3-day ban for careless riding in the Stewards room after the race. That inconvenienced The New Lion, so the fact he was still the fastest horse in the closing stages can be upgraded further. Both The Yellow Clay and Final Demand have run their race and had every chance, but they lost 0.35s and 1.34s respectively on the winner over the last quarter of a mile and simply lacked the pace to go with him at that stage. Final Demand had been an impressive winner of the Nathaniel Lacy at the Dublin Racing festival the time before, but he wasn’t able to control this race in the same manner. His top speed figure of 36.64 mph is not that far behind The New Lion (36.78 mph), but even if we try to make the case that Paul Townend went for home too soon, it’s hard to see how he will reverse the form given the way The New Lion and The Yellow Clay left him behind on the run-in. A lot was made of the Challow hurdle “curse” in the lead up to this race. That has now largely been dispelled with the form shown by The New Lion and to a lesser extent Wendigo, but it’s perhaps worth noting that you have to go back to 2017 (Let’s Dance) to find the last winner of the Nathaniel Lacy to win at Cheltenham in the same season.
My final note from this race comes for the 4th placed horse, Forty Coats. Henry De Bromhead’s 6-year-old had some solid form in maiden hurdles behind Wingmen and James’s Gate, but he is still a maiden over hurdles and with that in mind this was a superb effort, Outpaced for most of the contest, his top speed of 34.78 mph was some way behind the principles, but he stuck well to his task and was faster than Final Demand over the last 2-furlongs, coming home in 14.08 and 15.69s with the fastest run-out speed in the field at 25.05 mph. He isn’t likely to get close to the level of form shown by The New Lion, but with a step up in trip almost certain to suit, he is worth noting and at this stage of the season is probably the best maiden hurdler in training.
Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle
This was arguably the best ride of the week from Rachel Blackmore as she guided Bob Olinger through the field to land a 3rd Cheltenham festival win. When a horse comes from the rear, there is an assumption made that the race was run at a fast pace, but that really wasn’t the case here. With a finishing speed of 109.22%, it’s hard to make the case that Teahupoo was stopping in front of her and in the 7 previous renewals of this race that took place on Good to Soft ground, only Solwhit (2013) ran a slower time. The steady pace perhaps suited a horse who has shown the speed to win over shorter trips in the past, but at 37.36 mph, Bob Olinger’s speed was not the fastest in the race. That belonged to Lucky Place (38.7 mph) who simply didn’t finish his race, but from the 2-furlong pole, Bob Olinger used that speed to finish in 13.15 and 14.78s. That was quicker than the 28.31s taken by Air of Entitlement, also ridden by Blackmore, when winning the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle at the start of the card and 1.18s faster than Doddiethegreat at the end of the Pertemps final. Delivered to perfection with a single burst of speed, Bob Olinger has recorded the best run-out speed in the field 27.07 mph to see off his rivals. He was the best horse on the day, but there is also no doubt in my mind from the data that this race was run to suit him better than any other horse in the field.
A finishing speed of 109% on ground that was drier than ideal was never going to play to the strengths of Teahupoo and he has run very well as a result. Jack Kennedy’s post-race interview suggested that the softer ground may have blunted the speed of the winner and there’s a case to be made for that. Much like the Hatton’s Grace hurdle at Fairyhouse, Teahupoo has been beaten by the way the race played out rather than any lack of ability and whilst he is a better horse on soft ground, he is a clear 2nd best here and has proved that he can handle drier ground if he needs to.
The other horse to note is Rocky’s Diamond. As a 5-year-old, he was the youngest horse in the field and has run with huge credit. Racing prominently, he has been well placed but lacked the pace to go with the principles after the 2nd last and his top speed of 35.34 mph left him exposed at a crucial point. However, he has kept trying and finished 4th, beaten 10-lengths and he has run a faster final furlong than the 3rd placed The Wallpark in 15.95s. He has plenty of time on his side and scope for improvement. If he were to come back in a year’s time and the ground was to be slightly softer, he would surely be competitive with the benefit of another year’s experience at the top level.
Ryanair Chase
One of the major talking points for this year’s festival was the decision to run Fact to File in the Ryanair instead of the Gold Cup, but his connections were entirely vindicated as he ran out an easy 9-length winner. From the moment that he took up the running, he was in control and ran the fastest final 4-furlongs in 13.46, 13.25, 14.41 and 15.42s and despite being allowed to coast home by Mark Walsh, he still had the fastest run-out speed in the field at 25.21 mph. Essentially, everything else in this field was flat out from halfway and once Il Est Francais was headed, the race was over. Would he have won the Gold Cup? That’s probably a stretch. At the end of the Gold Cup trip, Inothewayurthinkin ran 54.28s for the final 4-furlongs, 2.36s faster than Fact to File managed over a shorter race distance (56.64s). The Gold Cup was run at a steady pace (110% Finishing Speed), which when compared with the opening splits run by Jungle Boogie at the front of the Ryanair field suggest that this race was run at a much stronger pace in the early stages, but Fact to File has seen it out well. However, given that JP McManus’ famous green and gold colours have won both prizes, there seems no need to speculate on that theory now. The winning time of 5:09.61 was faster than both Caldwell Potter (5:14.15) and Jagwar (5:15.50), who won handicap chases over the same course and distance carrying a stone less. There is no reason from the data to distrust this form and if Fact to File comes back to defend his crown in this race in 12-months time he will win this race.
Heart Wood emerged from this race with a huge amount of credit and although no match for the impressive winner, he ran a time of 5:11.59 which would have been enough to win the handicaps later on the card by 10-lengths. He has lost 0.97s on the winner over the final 2-furlongs, but his final furlongs split of 15.79 is almost a second quicker than anything else and he put 9-lengths between himself and his stablemate, Envoi Allen, who has run another great race at the festival to finish 3rd. Heart Wood would perhaps have preferred slightly more cut in the ground and his top speed of 36.24 mph was considerably slower than the 37.51 mph clocked by Fact to File, but there is a lot to be positive about for his connections. There is a Grade 1 win to be had with Heart Wood on this evidence, but he may well need Fact to File to be out of the way first.
Protektorat won this race 12-months ago but he simply didn’t have the necessary speed this time around. A slower pace in the middle part of the race left him vulnerable and although he was perhaps slightly inconvenienced by being on the inside of a tiring Jungle Boogie at the top of the hill, a top speed of just 36.01 mph suggests that he was simply not able to go fast enough this time around. Did the track stop Il Est Francais? Well, I’m sure it didn’t help but he ran very flat and his top speed of just 35.5 mph, the slowest in the field, would look to confirm that. Once headed, he folded very quickly and although the post-race examination from the vet had nothing to report, he simply didn’t look right. Jungle Boogie led the field at a decent early pace and they were 3.6s ahead of Caldwell Potter over the opening 5-furlongs, but that pace should have suited Il Est Francais, instead he set only an average pace once he hit the front and was quickly beaten in a race that was run to suit. Kempton clearly suits him better, but that form has come against genuine 3-mile chasers and he has been able to set fast early fractions there to get them out of their comfort zones. Even allowing for the course not suiting him, his 3 runs in the UK have yet to see him reach the 37.51 mph recorded by the winner here and he may simply lack the pace for a genuine 170+ performer like Fact to File at this intermediate trip.
You can find sectional times, stride data, speed statistics and jumping performance metrics on the At The Races RESULTS page.
The global database of sectional times, stride data and performance metrics is available through Total Performance Data.