Il Est Francais will be in front at the end of the first couple of furlongs. That’s hardly breaking news, but it does help to shape how this race is likely to be run. Cheltenham is not Kempton and he needs to prove that he is capable of transferring his aggressive running style to the undulations of Prestbury Park. However, he ran opening furlongs of 18.94, 15.26, 13.85 and 14.54s which got most of his rivals out of their comfort zones and there’s a fair chance that something similar will happen here if he can match that pace. The layout of the course for the Ryanair and the fact that they start in the chute through the middle of the track should allow him to do that before he reaches the rising ground. If we compare him to Spillane’s Tower, who finished 5th in the King George at Kempton, beaten 17-lengths I might add, we get a good gauge from the data of the task that Il Est Francais can set his rivals.
James Reveley was able to get a breather into Il Est Francais in the middle part of the race last time, but the race still had a finishing speed of 102%. Spillane’s Tower ran 16.78s for the final furlong, which saw him ranked 7th in the field for the closing stages and which would suggest that there wasn’t a great deal of fuel left in the tank at that trip.
That brings me to Fact to File. His form ties in with Spillane’s Tower from the John Durkan at Punchestown and whilst I can readily pick holes in his Brown Advisory win last year (steadily run race with a finishing speed of 109% against horses who need a better test of stamina), the Punchestown form is harder to dismiss. Galopin des Champs always needs his first outing of the season and over an inadequate trip, the bare form cannot be taken literally as has subsequently been proven, but the pair pulled clear in the final furlong. If there is a concern, it would be the end of his races. Fact to File wasn’t the fastest finisher in the John Durkan, Spillane’s Tower ran the better final furlong in 15.25s. It was a similar story at Leopardstown over Christmas, where he traveled strongly in a race run with a finishing speed of 109%, yet lost nearly a second on Galopin des Champs in the final half a mile (55.84s, 56.67s). There’s no shame in chasing home Galopin des Champs, but his latest run in the Irish Gold Cup suggests that he may not be finishing to best effect and that stamina may not be the only reason for that. Over the final 3-furlongs at Leopardstown, he came home in 42.44s, just 0.61s slower than the winner and that race also had a finishing speed of 111%. His races this year have been run at a steady pace, which should have suited him given his profile, but he hasn’t managed to be the fastest horse in the closing stages of any of them. Those doubts would put me off taking what is likely to be a very short price in a competitive race, especially given the fact that we are almost certain to get a strong pace set by Il Est Francais.
There’s a strong British challenge for this race and none more so than with last year’s winner Protektorat. This is a much deeper race this time around, but he won the 2024 race with some authority and he was over a second faster than Enovi Allen in the latter part of the contest, coming home in 14.96 and 15.98s. He readily dispatched Djelo at Windsor on his latest start and the data from that run would offer some considerable hope that he is at least capable of running to the same level that he managed when winning here 12-months ago. An impressive 23-length winner, he had the fastest top speed at 34.25 mph, the most efficient jumping display with an average of just 10.5% speed lost over his fences and even though he set a fair pace with a finishing speed of 97%, he was still able to run 16.72 and 16.61s for the final quarter of a mile. He won’t need to lead here, but he has shown plenty of speed, including a top speed of 36.06 mph when winning here last March and in the same form as he showed at Windsor, he looks to have all of the necessary tools to take him into the closing stages, regardless of how the race plays out.
Djelo gave a significant boost to the Protektorat form when he won the Denman Chase, but there is no doubt in my mind that the race was run to suit. With a finishing speed of 109.26%, it was steadily run which allowed Djelo to see out the 3-mile trip on his first try at the distance and that also allowed him to jump better. He lost an average of 8% of his speed over his fences at Newbury, considerably better than the 11.2% lost at Windsor and whilst the ground may have been more to his liking, I think the slower pace was more important. His best form this season has come at Newbury and Huntingdon where he recorded top speeds of 33.4 mph and 33.76 mph respectively. He was taken out of his comfort zone by the stronger pace set by Protektorat at Windsor and it is hard to see how he reverses that form.
Away from the head of the market there are a few familiar names for whom a case could be made. Envoi Allen is a 3-time festival winner and has a superb record after a break, but at the age of 11, he doesn’t have time on his side and he was well held when 2nd to Protektorat last year. Arriving here on the back of an unseat in the King George, he isn’t hard to dismiss. Ga Law also has an excellent Cheltenham record, but he is yet to win in the Spring and although he ran a faster final furlong than Djelo in the Denman Chase (14.18s), he was outpaced before running on at the finish. This race will be run to suit, but it will be a difficult ride for Gavin Sheehan to keep him in contention. A run-out speed of 29.12 mph at Newbury would offer some hope that the stronger pace here will suit, but he is probably running to pick up some place prize money in the closing stages at best.
At the age of 11, with just 7 runs under rules, it’s fair to say that things have never been straightforward with Jungle Boogie, but there is a case to be made for Henry De Bromhead’s charge from the data we have. He ran very well in the Gold Cup last year under Rachel Blackmore and had he not been so keen he may well have finished closer. He clocked a top speed of 34.78 mph in the Gold Cup, faster than both Galopin des Champs and Gerri Colombe and the strong pace set by Il Est Francais will help him to settle better. He was victorious on his only start this season when winning at Ascot in December and his jumping would offer further hope. Losing an average of just 6.2% of his speed over his obstacles, the most efficient display in the field. He is so lightly raced that it would be very hard to form a strong opinion from the data we have, but he has a very solid record when he has made it to the track and couldn’t be written off.
I have spent a lot of time looking at the pace map for this race. There is certainly a scenario whereby Il Est Francais gets his own way in front, runs a fast opening 6-furlongs and establishes a significant lead and doesn’t come back to the field. That could happen. However, I’d have doubts as to whether he will handle the undulations and I’d also have some concerns about his temperament when he isn’t able to dominate the race. His high profile defeats in France and even his mistake at the last fence at Kempton all came when he had another horse alongside him. Couple that with his relatively poor record in the Spring and I find it hard to recommend him, even if I can see the case for him bouncing out and making all. For that reason, I’ll follow the data from TPD and stick with an each-way selection, Protektorat. He won this race 12-months ago and there was enough evidence from the data of the race at Windsor to suggest that he is in similar form this time around. He has the pace to keep himself in contention and with course experience on his side, he is the most solid option in the field.
You can find sectional times, stride data, speed statistics and jumping performance metrics on the At The Races RESULTS page.
The global database of sectional times, stride data and performance metrics is available through Total Performance Data.