The final weekend in January can be an awkward time of year. Christmas can feel like a distant memory, the Spring weather is yet to arrive and the Breeders’ Cup is still 10-months away. However, the introduction of the Pegasus World Cup Invitational at Gulfstream Park has certainly brightened up the mood. To have a race of this quality so early in the year has been a brilliant addition to the Racing Calendar as the older horses get a last chance to shine before the 3-year-olds take centre stage. Here’s a look at some of the key data from TPD on this year’s field.
Locked
I’ll begin this preview with a look at the Ante Post favourite for this race, Locked. He was a winner in the Cigar Mile at Aqueduct back in December and when we discussed him in our weekly review of the TPD data, it did raise the question as to what might have been for the horse in 2024 if he had been injury free. He wasn’t especially fast from the gate on that occasion and the 10.93s that he ran for the 2nd furlong saw him ranked 7th in the Cigar Mile field. However, once John Velazquez set down for the drive he made relentless headway despite having to race 4-wide around the turn and his final furlong time of 12.24s was 0.48s faster than the runner-up. Most importantly, despite covering more ground in a truly run race with a finishing speed of 96.14%, he found the energy to maintain his stride in the final furlong from an average of 7.61m in the 6th furlong down to 7.46m in the last. For comparison, the runner-up 7.35 to 6.95m and the fast-finishing 3rd dropped from 7.40 to 7.02m over the same part of the track. The start would be an obvious concern as he has been 7th of 10, 7th of 9 and 6th of 8 for the 2nd furlong in his 3 starts in pattern company and this is arguably the deepest contest that he has raced in so far. On the plus side, he has shown a great attitude to get himself on terms in the closing stages, but at a relatively short price for a horse of his experience, he may be vulnerable if giving some of the more seasoned horses too much ground in the early stages. Stall 11 does not help his cause.
White Abarrio
A winner of the Breeders’ Cup Classic in 2023, this race looks to have been a long term plan for some time and with a very solid record at the track, including a Florida Derby win here in 2022, he must be a contender. He arrives here on the back of a defeat in the Grade 3 Mr. Prospector stakes in December when he was sent off at odds of 1.4. That was a disappointment but the closing sectionals will offer his connections a lot of hope that this was just a bad day at the office where he got himself too far behind. He does finish his races with a strong gallop and his closing sectionals of 11.69, 12.02 and 12.51s was 0.58s quicker than the winner Mufasa. He isn’t likely to be in front at the quarter pole here either and there is a very good chance that he will be racing alongside Locked if they both start in similar fashion to their most recent starts, but of the 2, I’d much prefer White Abarrio to be staying on best. Locked won the Cigar Mile with stamina, whereas White Abarrio does possess a genuine turn-of-foot when he gets himself organised and if he can get close enough, he may have the speed to get his head in front.
Saudi Crown
There is no hiding the fact that Saudi Crown has been largely disappointing at Grade 1 level. He did finish 3rd in the Saudi Cup last February and he has been a ready winner at Fair Grounds and Ellis Park, but he was last of 13 in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile at Del Mar and arrives here with questions to answer at this level. He had the ideal draw in stall 1 at Del Mar and broke well in 11.39 and 11.40s to sit behind the early lead, but he faded tamely in the latter stages and there are some questions as to whether he really wants a race with this much competition. He was a winner at Fair Grounds 5-weeks ago when stalking the pace, but this is a much deeper race and whilst he is likely to be in front of the other principles in the back straight, there are question marks as to whether he will stay there. He has clocked top speeds of 41.54 and 43.28 mph in his recent starts and he took just 4.4s to reach 20 mph at Ellis Park in August. He has all of the attributes needed to be effective at this level, but he is meeting some genuine Grade 1 performers here and he does have to step up to their level.
Mystik Dan
The winner of the Kentucky Derby in 2024, Mystik Dan would be of interest if he arrived in that form, but that is a big if. After winning at Churchill Downs, he was understandably sent to Pimlico on the hunt for the Triple Crown and is best forgiven what was still a solid run in 2nd behind Seize the Grey. However, his return from an absence in the Malibu Stakes left a lot to be desired as he trailed in last of 6. That may well have been needed to sharpen him up, but once the pace lifted around the home turn he was the slowest horse in each of the final 3-furlongs (12.03, 12.64 and 13.76s) and there is a giant leap forward needed in my opinion.
Stronghold
If Mystik Dan’s run in the Malibu Stakes was disappointing, then Stronghold’s offered plenty of promise. Although he was no match for the easy winner, he battled on bravely in the closing stages and his final 3-furlongs time of 36.98 compares very well with the time clocked by Raging Torrent (37.01s). He finished 7th in the Kentucky Derby behind Mystik Dan, but that was the only time in his 11-race career that he has finished outside of the first 2 and given how strongly he saw out the race at Santa Anita, where he had the fastest run-out speed of 32.70 mph, he is probably a fair each-way bet to improve once again. At 24.97 ft he had the longest maximum stride length in the Malibu Stakes and so the long bend at Gulfstream should suit him and given that he ran a 2nd furlong of 10.57s last time would suggest that he also has the necessary gate speed to get himself into a fair position from the gate.
The Outsiders
It’s always risky to group the rest of the field together in a preview like this. There’s always the chance that an outsider could spring a surprise, but a look through the data with TPD didn’t show me anything that made too much appeal. Mixto is a Pacific Classic winner, but since August 2023 he has been running continuously with no break longer than 63-days between his races. He finished tamely after hitting the front in the Native Diver Stakes at Del Mar last time with a finishing speed of 95.61%. Skippylongstocking is a course winner, but he is 0-9 in Grade 1 company and struggled to see out his race in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, coming home in 13.05 and 13.20s, fully 0.7s slower than the winner. Crupi has run some nice races, including a 2nd place finish in the Whitney Stakes, but he had the slowest top speed in the Clark Stakes at Churchill Downs last time (38.74 mph) and it’s debatable whether he will be able to find the early speed necessary to be competitive here. Power Squeeze has the widest draw to contend with and I’d have doubts after his recent 2nd place finish in the Rampart Stakes at Gulfstream last time. He did have to come 3-wide round the turn, but once on terms he had every chance to go by, but hung his head to one side and appeared not to put everything in, despite matching the winner with a 12.61s final furlong and increasing his average stride length from 6.64m to 7.06m. Newgrange has won 3 Graded races, including when he beat Mixto in the San Antonio Stakes in December 2023, but he has been off since July and has been beaten on all 3 occasions when he has returned from a break of more than 100-days.
Where will my money be going? Well, the percentage call is to stick with White Abarrio. He’s a Breeders’ Cup Classic win after all and he has fewer questions to answer at this level than most. Stall 4 could have been better and there is every chance that he will be behind several horses at the end of the opening stretch, but he has also shown that he possesses the necessary turn-of-foot and stamina to get himself out of that situation too. If I were to price this race, I’d make White Abarrio favourite, but I wouldn’t rule out a big run from Stronghold and he may represent some decent value on the day. His form in the Malibu Stakes looks strong and he is so consistent, that it’s hard to imagine he won’t run his race on Saturday evening.
You can find sectional times, stride data, speed statistics and jumping performance metrics on the At The Races RESULTS page.
The global database of sectional times, stride data and performance metrics is available through Total Performance Data.