Racing heads to Newbury on Saturday afternoon in the search for further festival clues. Using the data from TPD, I’ve looked at both the Grade 2 chases on the card to assess the chances of the market principles and how the data can offer an angle into each race.
William Hill Bet10 Get10 on Racing Denman Chase (G2)
If this race was being run in 2023 then Bravemansgame would be a very short price and would be by far the most likely winner. However, 2 years on from his King George victory, he looks to be a shadow of his former self and his latest effort at Kempton left a lot to be desired.
That 9th place finish came in a much better race than this and the strong early pace set by Il Est Francais didn’t help his cause, but his top speed of 34.40 mph was slower than the principles and his run-out speed of 25.05 mph was only mildly better than the 2 French horses either side of him and only General En Chef ran a slower final furlong. His stablemate Hitman has finished 2nd on both starts so far this season, but despite looking like the most likely winner when turning for home at Ascot last time, he didn’t manage to get his head in front and was run down by the 134-rated Terresita.
The winner was given a patient ride in a race run at a good pace with a finishing speed of 99.91%, but once in front, Hitman’s average stride length (6.35m) and average stride frequency (1.98 per second) dropped considerably, even though he had a faster run-out speed (taken 2s after he crossed the line) than Terresita. He also had a faster run-out speed than the winner when finishing 2nd to Minella Drama at Aintree in October and as I think many Racing fans suspect, the data from TPD would appear to confirm that Hitman isn’t putting everything that he could into the finish of his races.
Djelo carries the highest weight here, courtesy of the penalty he picked up for winning the Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon in December. If he were to be able to control the pace in front as he did there, he would be hard to beat, but the step up to 3-miles would be a concern for him. Protektorat reversed the form in the Fleur de Lys Chase at Windsor last time by setting a strong pace (the race had a finishing speed of 90.70%) and that found out Djelo, who was outpaced in the final 4-furlongs as both his average stride length and stride frequency fell. This race seems unlikely to be run at an end-to-end gallop, but the doubts over his stamina at 3-miles do remain.
The data from TPD does make a good case for Fugitif, despite the fact that he would appear to have around 10 lbs to find at these weights based on the official ratings. He finished 3rd on his latest start in the December Gold Cup at Sandown and whilst it might be considered that he was outpaced there, the speed data shows that he clocked a better top speed (36.37 mph) than the 2 horses to finish ahead of him. Instead, I think the case is better made that he had too much ground to make up from the rear of the field and he paid the price for doing so in the latter stages of a relatively steadily run race (107% Finishing Speed). He failed to finish on his only previous start over 3-miles at Aintree last year, but that came at the end of a long season and he looks worth another try at the trip, especially in a relatively small field.
William Hill Game Spirit Chase (Grade 2)
Matata was a very impressive winner at Windsor, when he began with a 63.62s opening half mile and had most of his rivals beaten turning for home. He deserves another shot at this level on the back of that victory, but the concern would be the 3-week turn around and the fact that he faces a much quicker rival here. Sir Gino clocked a top speed of 35.95 mph when beating Ballyburn at Kempton in December, fully 2.66 mph faster than Unexpected Party recorded when chasing home Matata at Windsor. Different ground and different courses of course, but given that Matata lost an average of 12.7% of his speed over his obstacles, it isn’t likely to give him a great deal of room for error here.
Nicky Henderson’s charge is clearly the most likely winner, but there may be some value in the forecast to chase him home. We discussed Edwardstone in the recent review of the data from the Clarence House Chase at Ascot and although he was just 0.1s slower than Energumene over the final 2-furlongs that day, he was ridden to finish and the overall profile of his form would suggest that age is catching up with him. He won this race 12-months ago with an aggressive front-running ride from Tom Cannon, but he jumped perfectly that day, losing an average of just 8.8% of his speed over his fences and and although he was close to that level at Ascot (losing 9.2% on average), if he were to be ridden aggressively here, he is likely to face competition for the lead this time around.
The horse that does make some appeal to chase home Sir Gino is Joe Tizzard’s JPR One. Brendan Powell made the point after his Haldon Gold Cup win that the horse only has one clear run in his locker and as such he is likely to be ridden with more restraint here. He was no match for Jonbon in the Tingle Creek last time, but there is no shame in that and he was faster than the runner-up Qulixios in the penultimate furlong (15.85s) and he had subsequent dual Grade 1 winner Solness behind him too. That is the strongest form on offer aside from Sir Gino and with a top speed of 35.57 mph recorded on better ground at Exeter, he should have enough speed to chase home the likely winner.
You can find sectional times, stride data, speed statistics and jumping performance metrics on the At The Races RESULTS page.
The global database of sectional times, stride data and performance metrics is available through Total Performance Data.