The New Year has started slowly with so many meetings being abandoned due to the weather. However, we have had some interesting action around the world, especially amongst the 3-year-old generation and here is this week’s review of the data from TPD.
Uttoxeter
QuinnBet Best Odds Guaranteed Mares’ Open NHF
I’ll begin 2025 where all good analysis should start, the Uttoxeter bumper on New Year’s Eve. This was a competitive affair on paper and the fact that the winner, A Path to Ronda, is a half-sister to Simonsig and Dusart, would be enough on its own to make this race look significant. However, the data from TPD, especially the sectional times, would suggest that this race was considerably above the course average and could well be a piece of form to follow. The winner ran the final mile in 122.31s. When we compare that to the 4 hurdle winners on the card, she comes out as the fastest finisher on the card, a number that increases when we look at her closing splits for the last 4-furlongs (14.25, 13.16, 13.81, 15.26 – 56.48s). Allowance does need to be made for the fact that the hurdle winners had 4 obstacles to jump in the final mile and as such they lost between 3.0% to 8.5% of their speed at those points. However, for a group of inexperienced mares to match or better those times is surely significant, especially when compared to the remarkable finish of Eaton Anne, who came from 20-lengths back under a brilliant Sean Bowen ride.
The winner had the fancy pedigree and despite being keen at times, she proved to be the best horse on the day and looks to be a nice prospect for Jamie Snowden, but there are several mares in behind her that are also worthy of note. Diamonds Galore (2nd) had been too keen on her debut at Warwick in November, but improved here when getting more cover. At 23.62 ft, she had the longest stride in the field and looks to be a nice prospect for Novice hurdles over further. Harmony Heights (4th) had 2 runs in point-to-points and although she was outpaced at a crucial stage here, she had the fastest run-out speed of 30.0 mph and shapes like a horse who will be better in time. I also liked the debut of Briery Rose (5th) who is out of the very smart race mare Briery Belle. She made up a lot of ground from the rear, despite ranking 12th of 13 with a maximum stride length of 21.19 ft. She will almost certainly improve on better ground and has run well under the circumstances.
Santa Anita
San Vicente Stakes
Barnes puts his Kentucky Derby claims on display. A second win for Bob Baffert’s son of Into Mischief and he certainly set down an early marker for the Kentucky Derby with this easy success. He broke smartly from stall 2 and found himself in the ideal position on the outside of the early pace setting McKinzie Street, who was far too keen under Antonio Fresu and eventually faded. Barnes ran 10.49s for the 2nd furlong to hold that prominent position and once in front rounding the home turn, came home in furlongs of 12.13, 12.23 and 12.65s, each of which were the fastest in the field. He’s come readily clear of the rest in the closing stages, but we should add some context with the runner-up, Romanesque, also trained by Bob Baffert.
Romanesque had beaten 2 subsequent winners when winning his maiden at Del Mar in November and deserved his place in this grade 2 field. He traveled nicely under Mike Smith, but lacked racing room at a crucial stage when caught between the tiring McKinzie Street and Bullard (3rd) and Smith quickly accepted his fate when it was clear that he wasn’t going to get a clear run in the straight. He wouldn’t have beaten Barnes regardless, but he does possess a longer stride (24.84ft to 24.34ft) and might get closer with better luck in running.
Meydan
Dubawi Stakes Sponsored by Binghatti Developers
Tuz stamps his class again. It feels like I am writing about Tuz every time we discuss the Racing at Meydan on this blog, but he was so imperious in the Dubawi Stakes on Friday that it’s hard to ignore him. This was a controlled display. He was the fastest horse to reach 20 mph in 3.8s and he got himself into the ideal position once again and when the field turned for home, he was able to use his long stride to kick clear. At 26.18 ft, his peak stride length was considerably better than the next best (Rawy 25.30 ft) and whilst the races that he has won so far this season have been run to suit, he has dominated the division and it seems impossible to think that Colour Up (2nd) or Strobe (3rd) are going to be able to bridge the gap. The races are run to suit because Tuz is able to use his class to set them up in that way. He has reached 20 mph in 3.6 and 3.8s in his 2 starts this season, and he increased his peak stride length on Friday from 24.51 ft on 6th December to 26.18 ft here. In the same form, he looks likely to continue to dominate.
UAE 2000 Guineas Trial Sponsored by Kentucky Derby
Golden Vekoma delivers a shock win for Ahmad Bin Harmash and Connor Beasley. When a horse wins with an International SP of 40/1, there are always some doubts over the form and whilst I have no doubt that Golden Vekoma was the best horse on the day on Friday, the data from TPD would look to suggest that this was a case of the horse being in the right place at the right time. To be fair to Golden Vekoma, he made a perfectly respectable debut when 3rd to Heart of Honor here last month, but this was a considerable improvement on that effort. Loaded
last with a Gate Time of just 6-seconds, Golden Vekoma has had a perfect setup and he has broken from the gate like a horse who isn’t inconvenienced by waiting time in the stalls. He has shown good early speed on both starts, running 2nd furlongs of 10.49s and 10.62s and that early speed enabled him to get into a decent early position from a wide draw, but this early speed has allowed Connor Beasley to get in a breather around the bend and he ranks just 6th of 11 for the 4th furlong despite his prominent position (11.74s). Once he hit the front at the top of the home straight, he ran the fastest 6th furlong of the race in 12.05s and that allowed him to kick clear. His stride length and final furlong time of 12.89s suggested he didn’t have a lot left in the closing stages and both Nimble Boy (2nd) and Nam Phrik (4th) were significantly quicker at that point. A finishing speed of 96.15% does suggest this race was truly run and the winner needs to be upgraded slightly for this effort given the fact that he raced prominently, but he had an ideal setup and may not enjoy the same next time in the 2000 Guineas itself.