Let’s start by stating the obvious. This race is all about Majborough. From the moment that Sir Gino was ruled out, Willie Mullins’ charge has become the most likely winner of this year’s Arkle. He is already a Cheltenham festival winner courtesy of his victory over his stablemate Kargese in last year’s Triumph hurdle. That race, run on ground officially described as “Heavy”, was won with his stamina, as he stayed on dourly up the Cheltenham hill, running the fastest final 2-furlongs in 14.32 and 17.13s. Kargese had a better top speed at 36.42 mph (Majborough 35.97 mph) and her run-out speed of 24.16 mph was better than the winner, but it was his relentless galloping in the final half mile that saw him home. He has been workmanlike if not spectacular in his 2 starts over fences this season. On both occasions he has been the fastest horse over the final 2-furlongs, taking 25.95s for the final quarter of a mile at Fairyhouse and then 28.56s for the last 2-furlongs at the Dublin Racing Festival. Those races had finishing speeds of 112% and 104.8% respectively, giving him some experience over fences whilst steadily improving and on all known form, he should find this race to be a penalty kick.
Majborough should win, but the market has long since absorbed any value in his price and we do have some data to offer some better value against him. I’ll start with the challenge from the British trained runners. L’Eau du Sud has done very little wrong when winning 4 times over fences this season, but the data from his latest win at Warwick would be a slight concern. Firstly, this was quite a hard race, with a finishing speed of 98.82% and although Rubaud has since franked the form at Kempton, that race may well have left its mark. As we can see from the sectional times, Rubaud was considerably quicker than L’Eau du Sud over the final 4-furlongs and he also clocked a better top speed at 36.69 mph. L’Eau du Sud does have experience of the track at Cheltenham on his side, but he is going to need a relatively cute ride to see him to best effect and I have no doubt from the data that Majborough has more stamina in reserve if this race is truly run. His early season victories came in races with finishing speeds of 110% and 106% and this looks likely to be a much sterner test of his ability to stay. As we can see from the Sandown data in December, he has the ability to produce similar closing times to Jonbon, as he did when winning over the same course and distance on Tingle Creek day. Taken literally, that level of form would give him a great chance in this race, but the race was set up perfectly for him on the softer ground that day and this looks likely to be run under much quicker conditions.
Jango Baie has become the best Arkle hope for the Henderson yard which looked very unlikely at the start of the season. The injury to Sir Gino and the fact that Iberico Lord hasn’t taken to fences has seen him re-routed here, but there would have to be concerns about his speed for 2-miles. It could be argued that he should have beaten Handstands in the Scilly Isles Chase last time, but that probably doesn’t give enough credit to the winner, who had been an extremely efficient jumper when winning the Towton at Ffos Las the time before, where he was able to control the race with the best top speed figure of 32.73 mph. Jango Baie recorded a top speed of 34.74 mph on heavy ground at Sandown, but that was slower than Handstands (35.34 mph) and his run-out speed of 29.42 mph, taken 2-seconds after he crossed the line, would suggest that he had plenty left after that 2-miles and 4-furlongs race on deep ground. The suspicion we have from our data is that he will find things happening too quickly over this trip, especially as the ground dries out.
The remainder of the Irish challengers for this race are somewhat harder to assess. Only By Night has done very little wrong over fences and with her 7lbs allowance she is of obvious interest. It’s hard to judge her recent victory at Exeter as her main rival, Fun Fun Fun, didn’t run her race, but Only By Night did get her head in front. However, she was considerably slower than the runner-up in the final furlong (Kilbarry Saint) and her run-out speed of 26.40 mph might suggest that she was stretched by a race run with a finishing speed of 94.4%. In what looks likely to be a strongly run race, she may be vulnerable against the geldings if she gets involved in the early pace, but with a cute ride she may be able to pick up some late prize money.
Touch Me Not would look to be held by Majborough based on their form in the Irish Arkle. Gordon Elliott has stated that he believes that Touch Me Not will improve on better ground and there is some evidence for that based on his run at Punchestown on good ground in October when he came home in 14.41 and 14.77s. However, the balance of his form would suggest that he is held by the favourite.
It’s very hard to get away from Majborough and given that he has shown himself to be tactically versatile, he is likely to win. However, this is the Cheltenham festival and I don’t wish to start the week by recommending a short-priced favourite, even though all of the data would suggest that he will win. Instead, I’ll look for the value in the forecast market. L’Eau du Sud is the horse that I’m keen to oppose and so I will be looking for a horse to be given a quiet ride to pick up the pieces and that leads me to Only By Night. I don’t expect her to be ridden to take on Majborough, but she should stay well, having won a Point-to-Point as a 4-year-old and given that she clocked 38.54 mph at Exeter, she does have the speed to come with a late run under Keith Donoghue.
You can find sectional times, stride data, speed statistics and jumping performance metrics on the At The Races RESULTS page.
The global database of sectional times, stride data and performance metrics is available through Total Performance Data.