We have reached the Super Saturday card in the Dubai season. This is a fantastic card and certainly whets the appetite for the coming turf season in Europe and TPD have all the data ready for this weekend’s showpiece at Meydan. Perhaps the most informative races will be the 2 renewals of the Jumeirah Guineas for the 3-year-olds and it is those races that I have chosen to focus on for this week’s preview.
Jumeirah 1000 Guineas
This race would look to revolve around Mountain Breeze and if you want to back a winner at Meydan on Saturday and you aren’t too fussed about the price, she is probably the horse to side with. She has finished 4th in an Albany Stakes, finished 2nd in a Duke of Cambridge and chased home Lake Victoria in the Sweet Solera stakes and that form does set her apart. It’s fair to point out that she struggled at Woodbine in September on her only previous try at this trip, but that was her 6th start in just 4-months and I’d be happy to forgive that below par effort. She was a comfortable winner of the Mawj Stakes over 7-furlongs at Meydan in January, where she clocked a top speed of 42.19 mph, considerably faster than the next best Octans (41.38 mph). Although we do need to acknowledge that she had the ideal position behind the leader, once in the clear, she ran the fastest final 3-furlongs in the straight, quickening clear with a maximum stride length of 25.69 ft. That is a long stride for a filly and I would have no doubts that this mile trip is going to bring out further improvement and as such there is no obvious reason to think that the form will be reversed by the placed horses that chased her home in January.
Most of her rivals’ form would suggest that they are unlikely to get close to Mountain Breeze if she gets a clear run on Saturday. Reine du Ciel is a new form line and she did win a couple of races on better ground when she was trained in France, but she finished down the field over 5-furlongs on her debut for Ingrid Koplikova last month and it’s hard to see how the step up to a mile will lead to the necessary improvement being found. With a top speed of 45.39 mph and the fact that she took just 5-seconds to reach 30 mph, there’s a fair chance that she might be in front with Lhakpa at the end of the first furlong, but it’s hard to imagine that she will stay there.
The Mawj Stakes form is clearly the angle to focus on and whilst I think that Mountain Breeze is likely to be a very short price, there is perhaps an angle to suggest that the forecast result will remain the same, with the Godolphin favourite leading home Octans once again. She has won 4 times in Madrid for Guillermo Arizkorreta Elosegui and despite being keen in the early stages last time, she stuck to her task in the closing stages and the fact that she ran 11.89s for the final furlong, fully 0.44s faster than Lhakpa (12.33s) is enough to make me think that form will not be reversed. Lhakpa pulled hard last time, taking 5.6s to reach 30 mph and running the fastest opening 2-furlongs in the field (14.11, 11.40s), but she couldn’t sustain that effort and her average stride length dropped considerably in the home straight. She is the obvious pace angle in this field, but there is little evidence in the data to suggest that the step up in trip is going to lead to any improvement.
Jumeirah 2000 Guineas
Charlie Appleby also looks to hold a very strong hand for the colts race and by far the most fascinating runner is Ruling Court. We haven’t seen him since he finished 3rd in the Acomb Stakes behind The Lion in Winter and Wimbledon Hawkeye at York in August, but that form is very strong in the context of this race and there is some further hope from the sectional times to suggest that he might be a class apart from his rivals if ready to go after a break. After an admittedly slow start, he ran faster splits than the winner over each of the next 4-furlongs (10.98, 11.25, 10.89 and 11.04s) to get himself back into contention. He paid for those exertions in the final 100 yards, but given the form shown by Wimbledon Hawkeye subsequently, he will be hard to beat if he runs a similar race on Saturday. However, unlike Mountain Breeze, he does need to prove his fitness and for that reason I’d be quite keen to take him on with his stablemate, Hallasan.
Hallasan won the trial for this race last month and I was particularly impressed by his early speed. From a handy draw, he broke smartly under Richard Mullen, taking 5.6s to reach 30 mph and running 13.66 and 10.93s over the opening 2-furlongs, both of which were the fastest individual splits in the field. He was the last horse to come off the bridle in the home straight and he did well to quicken again to hold off the challenge of his stablemate Al Qudra in the closing stages. It is true to say that The FIngal Raven ran a faster final furlong, but given that he came from further back in a race run at a true pace (Finishing Speed 102.42%) there is no guarantee that he will reverse the form. We should also give a mention to Glitterati, who has Oisin Murphy booked to ride on his first start at Meydan. With a rating of 97, he doesn’t have too much to find after a series of consistent runs in Doha. However, on a form line through Al Qudra he has improvement to find and he is more exposed than most at this stage.
There is obviously a chance that Ruling Court is in a different league to this field and if he is, then he should win this relatively easily given the strength of his juvenile form. However, after an absence of 192-days, it would be a significant leap of faith to support him and for that reason, the data from TPD would suggest that Hallasan is a more solid option at this stage.
The global database of sectional times, stride data and performance metrics is available through Total Performance Data.