Meydan 8th November
The new season in Dubai is now underway and Friday sees the first meeting at Meydan, with a 7 race card on the Dirt. It’s very early days in the Dubai season and whilst these races are now open to overseas runners, there is a very local feel to the card. The maiden races are the most interesting on the card, but with very little form to go on it can really only be a watching brief for those contests. Instead, I have looked at the data available from last season with TPD to highlight a few runners who may be of interest on opening night.
One of the more interesting runners on the card is Mawthog, who has drawn the plum draw in stall 1 for the Emirates Airline Handicap at 3:15. He is exceptionally lightly raced and has obviously had his issues after just 2 starts in the last 2 seasons, but he does have an easy Jebel Ali maiden win on his CV and the TPD data from his latest start over this course and distance 12-months ago does offer some hope. He finished 5th on that occasion, having raced wide throughout and never really been able to threaten. However, at 26.41 ft, his average stride length was over 1.5 ft longer than anything else in the field and having run a 2nd furlong in 10.68s, there is every reason to think that he has the speed to take advantage of this draw. Michael Costa has several runners in this race, but he operates at a 25% strike rate in the month of November and has had 6 winners from 20-runners already this season. If Mawthog were able to lead, and we are of course taking his fitness on trust, he might prove hard to pass with such a long stride to maintain the gallop.
Also returning from an absence for Michael Costa is Meshtri in the Emirates Airlines Handicap at 4:00. He has been missing since disappointing at Jebel Ali last December, but he was a winner over this course and distance on this card 12-months ago. The TPD data shows that he had the highest top speed in the field that day (42.17 mph) and a second furlong of 10.57s was the key to his victory, as he used his early speed to get into a handy position despite being drawn 6 of 7. He finished ahead of Nevershow Weakness in that maiden, a horse who went on to win his next 3 starts and ended the season rated 105. He is another horse who has shown a lot of early speed and a mark of 91 looks very lenient with the benefit of hindsight.
The final race on the card looks to be a relatively weak affair and so despite the wide draw, it may well be worth keeping Ezaj on side. Although he is 0-12 in Dubai, he has run his best races here and it took him just 6.6s to reach 30 mph on his latest start here in March, the 2nd fastest in the field. That figure offers hope that he will be able to get himself into a prominent position from stall 14. TPD have data available for Ezaj going back to 2022, which allows me to highlight that his average stride length has been increasing with each season of racing. Last year it reached a peak of 25.39 ft when he finished 2nd here in February, compared to a previous peak of 24.82 ft when he raced on turf in the UK for Ismail Mohammed in 2022. On a track that favors horses who can show early speed and maintain a gallop, that could give him a chance in a race that lacks too many obvious dangers.