Friday sees the first meeting of the new year at Meydan and this looks to be the best card of the season so far. It includes the UAE 2,000 Guineas Trial and the Zabeel Mile which is full of plenty of the stars of the Dubai Racing scene. Here is my preview of a couple of the feature races.
Zabeel Mile
San Donato won this race 12-months ago and I thought that he showed no signs of his age catching up with him when a solid 2nd behind Native Approach here 2-weeks ago. His connections had an entry for him in Bahrain, but they chose to come to Meydan instead and were unlucky not to pick up the 300,000 AED first prize when going down by less than a length. Having been drawn in stall 1, Ben Coen was forced to sit behind the pace on the inside rail and had to wait for the gaps to appear, but he quickened nicely in the final 2 furlongs when the gaps came, recording average stride frequencies of 2.42 and 2.43 per second in the final 2 furlongs, his best frequencies of the race excluding the start. A run-out speed of 37.11 mph was only bettered by the fast finishing winner and the step back up to a mile from 7-furlongs looks to be firmly in his favour.
Native Approach isn’t in this contest, but the Godolphin team do have Ottoman Fleet. He is yet to win in Dubai in 6 starts, but he is a multiple winner around the world, most recently at Churchill Downs in June and if he is ready to go after a 5-month break, he is a danger. He was 3rd in the Fourstardave Handicap at Saratoga when last seen and that form has worked out extremely well with both the winner and runner-up winning in Grade 1 company since (Breeders’ Cup Mile winner More Than Looks was 2nd). However, he wasn’t able to match the speed of the winner in the home straight that day, coming home in 11.48 and 12.15s (Carl Spackler 1st: 11.38, 11.74s) and I suspect that this mile trip is going to be sharp enough for him on his return.
Noble Dynasty perhaps offers Godolphin a better chance here. After missing the whole of 2023 with an injury, he has won twice in 2024 and he is 7 from 10 when running after a break of 50-days or more. However, he faded tamely at Newmarket in October when over a second slower than the winner over the final 2-furlongs (25.59s to 24.24s) and his only win over this trip came in a Thirsk handicap off a mark of 93.
It’s also interesting to see Cairo being given a full campaign in Dubai this year. He has flown in for the World Cup night in each of the last 2 years but since switching to Alice Haynes from Aiden O’Brien, he has been sent to Meydan for the winter. He ran a respectable race when chasing home Measured Time in the Al Rashidiya and although his speed and stride length shortened significantly in the closing stages, reducing from a peak of 8.28m to 7.14m, he can be forgiven that as he tried to go with the impressive winner and paid for that in the final furlong. I would at least expect him to uphold the form with Royal Dubai. However, he has work to do with the principles here and it will be a surprise if he is strong enough to hold on.
Salem Bin Ghadayer gives Dolayli her first run in Dubai and if she can match the form that she showed in France for Francis-Henri Graffard, she would have a chance. She was 4th behind Mqse de Sevigne in the Prix D’Ispahan in May and came home in 10.70 and 11.28s that day, suggesting that she is capable of matching the speed of the geldings here. However, her form tailed off after that run and she was soundly beaten at Paris Longchamp in September when she was last seen. She cost €100,000 at Arqana in October, but she will need to bounce back to form in order to justify that price tag and can only be watched at this level for now.
This race appears to have been the plan with San Donato for some time and he looks to be arriving here with a favourites chance. He ran very well over what looked to be an inadequate 7-furlongs last time and in the same form with a clear run, he is likely to be hard to beat here despite his age.
Dubawi Stakes
On paper this Group 3 would look to revolve around Tuz. He won this 12-months ago and after producing such an impressive display on his return in the Al Garhoud Sprint in December, he looks to be the obvious winner of this. He took just 3.6s to reach 20 mph and once in front with the inside rail to help, he maintained his speed around the home turn, running an 11.35s 4th furlong as they turned for home which saw him scamper clear. With an official rating of 119, he is nicely clear of this field and if he gets an identical setup, he is going to be very hard to beat. However, a small case can be made for a couple of his rivals, most notably Colour Up, who chased him home in the Al Garhoud Sprint last time. He is a 5 time winner for Doug Watson and ran a very respectable race on his comeback after getting caught behind outpaced horses at a crucial stage. It is unlikely that he would have beaten Tuz on the day, but he ran the final 2-furlongs in 23.93s (Tuz 23.85s) and once in the clear, he was able to maintain his stride frequency at an average of 2.46 per second (race average) in the straight, suggesting that he was capable of getting closer if he had better luck in running. His adjusted Length x Frequency figure was 39.50 mph, compared to the 39.46 mph recorded by Tuz and I can make a case that he was better value than the 5-length winning margin might suggest in the formbook. He won the corresponding race in 2023 before chasing home Tuz in this 12-months ago, so he clearly enjoys running at this time of year and whilst he is unlikely to reverse the form, he should get closer if he can repeat that effort.
The other interesting angle in the race is Strobe. He was making his first start in Dubai for Simon and Ed Crisford when finishing 4th here last month, but having traveled strongly into the contest, he was short of room at a couple of crucial stages and I think there is a lot more improvement to come from him too. He clocked 43.31 mph at his peak and showed enough early speed to suggest he will be able to go with the principles here, reaching 20 mph in 3.8s. Adrie De Vries looked to be onboard the winner as they runed for home, but his mount couldn’t find racing room and having been pinned inside by the eventual winner Oasis Boy, he was forced to switch inside before tiring late on. Oasis Boy was considered good enough to run in
the UAE Derby in March (finished 9th) and the 2nd placed Magic Petition had race fitness on his side, so I think this form can be upgraded. He was a multiple winner in the US for Brad CoxJames Doyle takes over and he showed plenty of speed on the dirt, clocking top speeds of 44.27 mph (Churchill Downs Sept 2023) and 44.38 mph (Aqueduct Oct 2023) on his final 2 starts in the US. After a pipe-opening 2nd to Heathcliff at Kempton in November, he made a good start to his season in Dubai and should build on that here under James Doyle.
Salem Bin Ghadayer has a new recruit running in this race, Desperate Hero. He won 6 races for the Channon team in the UK and was 4th in the Prix de L’Abbaye on his last start in October. Both of them are worth watching with an eye to the future and look likely to switch back to the turf after this. Eastern World is also capable on his day and he has beaten Tuz in the past, but he needed his first run last season and after 9-months off, he is best watched here.
The form book and the data from TPD would suggest that Tuz is the most likely winner of this race, but there may be some value in the market against him with Colour Up and Strobe. If either were bigger than 5/1 on the day, they’d represent a fair each-way bet.