There is a slightly more sedate feel to this Friday’s Meydan card, but it is competitive and there is a chance that we might see a star on show as Heart of Honor makes his 2nd start in Dubai. Here is this week’s TPD preview looking at the Dubai Maritime City and the Dubai Auto Zone handicap.
Dubai Maritime City
We begin with a look at this conditions race for 3-year-olds who have won no more than 1 race. I’ve been looking forward to this race for most of the week as it marks the return of the impressive December winner Heart of Honor. Jamie Osborne’s 3-year-old made a striking impression when winning by 4-lengths here last month, coming clear in the home straight despite working hard to get into position from the gate and being forced to race 4-wide around the turn. His data would suggest that he was considerably better than his rivals that day, recording the best LxF figure of 38.15 mph and recording the fastest closing furlongs of 12.69, 12.29 and 12.95s from the top of the straight. He saw out the mile very well that day, recording the best run-out speed of 33.15 mph after the line and I couldn’t see any obvious reason for the likes of Undefeated or Just being able to reverse the form. In fact, this form line now looks particularly strong as the 3rd placed Golden Vekoma was the winner of the UAE 2000 guineas trial last week. As I said at the time, I would treat that particular result with some caution, but in the context of this race it looks solid and from a decent draw in stall 4, Heart of Honor should really confirm the exciting impression he gave last time.
I’d certainly be more inclined to follow Heart of Honor than I would the other winners in this race, Gallant Blade and Exculpation. They have both won races at Jebel Ali and whilst Gallant Blade would look to hold Exculpation on their meeting there in December, the LxF figures they recorded of 37.20 and 36.81 mph, would leave them something to find with Heart of Honor on the TPD data. A bigger danger is surely the Simon and Ed Crisford trained Royal Favour, who is making his UAE debut in this contest. He finished 2nd on his only start in the UK at Southwell 5-weeks ago when he finished 2nd behind Saddadd. He ran a nice race and probably wasn’t helped by racing down the centre of the track in the home straight (the winner had the stands rail to help at this stage) and his pedigree would suggest that this switch to the dirt is going to suit. His debut form is yet to be tested, but he is drawn nicely in stall 3 and if the market were to speak in his favour, then he needs to be respected, for all that Heart of Honor sets a decent standard for the others to aim at.
Dubai Auto Zone
If Welcome Dream arrives in the same form that he showed 5-weeks ago he will be very hard to beat. An LxF figure of 39.30 and a Top Speed of 43.42 mph would make him just about the best of these and once asked to quicken last time, he came home in 11.73 and 12.72s, the fastest finish in the 15-strong field. However, he had the ideal draw in stall 1 last time and he got a perfect run through on the inside rail, which seems far less likely from stall 10 on Friday. He is probably the most likely winner of this race, but there is no doubt in my mind that he had the ideal set of circumstances last time to produce such high numbers and there are one or two runners in this field whose TPD data would suggest may represent some value against him.
Gamekeeper did everything right last time and was very unlucky to be beaten on the nod by Onight. His figures compare reasonably well with those of Welcome Dream (LxF 38.33, Top Speed 42.82 mph), but stall 9 won’t be easy for him either. His form is solid enough so far this season, but in both starts his early speed has been average at best, taking 24.23 and 24.46s for the opening quarter of his races and that may not be enough to get into a decent position from a wide draw here. Tahdeed’s last win came in December 2022 and although I should add that he has missed a lot of time in the interim period, his run at Jebel Ali last month was only “OK” and he will need to find better than the 40.65 mph top speed that he recorded 13 days ago.
The draw has led me towards Barq Al Emarat (3). He chased home Welcome Dream last time, but having been squeezed out at the start, he did remarkably well to get as close as he did, having taken 14.19s for the opening furlong after Silvestre de Sousa had to take evasive action after 50-yards. His top speed figure of 43.58 mph compares very well with Welcome Dream and with a better draw and a 4-kilo swing at the weights with that rival, I think he makes a lot of appeal as an each-way alternative.
The unknown quantity in this race is Pen Portrait. He was an All-Weather maiden winner for the Crisford team in the UK and although his TPD data (LxF 37.96, Top Speed 39.01 mph) would suggest he has some work to do to win this with top weight, he did win at Sharjah in impressive fashion on his UAE debut last month. He traveled very strongly at Sharjah and won with ease, but it’s impossible to truly translate that form to Meydan and so it could only be a watching brief for me.