The Howden Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot is the last Grade 1 to be run before Christmas. This race has an illustrious history with the likes of Paisley Park, Big Buck’s, Reve de Sivola and Baracouda all with their name on the trophy on multiple occasions since the turn of the century. At 2:25 on Saturday, Crambo will bid to give Fergal O’Brien a 3rd Grade 1 win and will look to add his name to that famous list of multiple Long Walk winners. Here’s a look at what the data tells us at TPD about Crambo and the opposition that he faces.
Long Distance Hurdle – Newbury – 29th November
Strong Leader is following what could be classed as the “traditional” route to this race and his 3.5-length win at Newbury did confirm that he is fit and well. However, a win over Monmiral, whom he had 10lbs in hand with at the weights, doesn’t make him a certainty. The race had a finishing speed of 111.37%, perhaps not surprising given there were only 4-runners and he was ideally placed behind the pace setting Flight Deck. He clocked the highest top speed in the race at 34.92 mph, but he lost an average of 6.6% of his speed over his hurdles (ranked 3rd of 4) and both Langer Dan (29.06 mph) and the outpaced Flight Deck (28.45 mph) had faster run-out speeds. All 6 of his career wins have come on flatter, left-handed tracks and in what looks likely to be a bigger field and more truly run race, he may prove to be vulnerable up the Ascot hill.
Howden Long Walk Hurdle – Ascot – 23rd December 2023
Crambo returns in an effort to defend his crown, but the form of last year’s race is open to question and only Botox Has (6th) has won over hurdles since. The field were 1-25 over hurdles and the sectional times and run-out speed show that Paisley Park was unfortunate to be beaten on the nod as they crossed the line. Crambo has won on his seasonal return in each of the last 2 seasons, but there are some more progressive types in the field this year and whilst the truly run nature of that race did confirm his stamina, his limitations were exposed at Cheltenham and Aintree in the Spring.
Howden Ascot Hurdle – Ascot – 23rd November
Blueking D’Oroux has form figures of 1,1,5,2 at Ascot and lost nothing in defeat when beaten by the speed of Lucky Place in the closing stages. That race had a finishing speed of 106.93% and despite being headed at the 2nd last, he stuck to his task, for all that it should be noted that he was 0.49s slower than the winner over the final 2-furlongs and had the slowest run-out speed in the field at 28.57 mph. He was only 5th in this race 12-months ago when he appeared not to stay, but that was a truly run race and he looks to have strengthened again over the last year. There is an obvious risk that 3-miles will stretch his stamina, but he ought to last longer than he did in 2023 at least.
Racing TV Mares’ Hurdle – Kempton – 25th November
This was a 5th win in 10 starts over hurdles for Kateira, but she is yet to prove herself beyond Listed company and a 3-length victory over the 133-rated Della Casa Lunga is unlikely to be good enough. She was readily outpaced by Beacon Edge in a falsely run West Yorkshire hurdle at Wetherby the time before staying on, but in a much deeper race, she has yet to produce any form that would suggest this will suit.
JRL Group Liverpool Hurdle – Aintree – 13th April
This race was won by Strong Leader, who confirmed his class and dominance on a Flat track to come from the rear of the field to win going away. He was the best horse on the day in a truly run race (finishing speed of 99.58%) and ran the fastest final furlong in 15.80s on Good to Soft ground to confirm that dominance. However, a case can be made for Hiddenvalley Lake being unfortunate not to get closer to the winner after handing and being short of room coming to the last. He is a confirmed stayer and with 3 wins from 6 starts over hurdles, he remains open to more improvement than most in this field. He was faster than the runner-up (Buddy One) at Aintree over the final 2-furlongs and would probably have finished 2nd with a clear run having had to work hard to get himself into contention. We haven’t seen him since, so his fitness will need to be taken on trust, but he isn’t without a chance in an open race.
Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle – Cheltenham – 26th October
Wallpark completed a 4-timer for Gordon Elliott by landing this Pertemps Qualifier at the Cheltenham Showcase meeting in October. The bare form isn’t exceptional, though both the 5th (Beacon Edge) and 7th (Supreme Gift) have both won since, but Wallpark was in a different league to most of the runners anyway. Having initially been held up in rear, he made good progress to reach the front with 2-furlongs to run and from there he was always in command, running home in 13.75 and 14.15s. For comparison, that finishing time of 27.90s was faster than the winner of the Novice hurdle over the same Course and Distance Intense Approach (29.94) and the winner of the Masterson holdings 4-year-old hurdle Givemefive (28.15). In a race run with a finishing speed of 105.18%, the fact that he was able to match the finish of the 4-year-olds who ran over a mile shorter bodes well. That speed looks to give him an edge over most of his rivals, especially if the word “good” stays in the Ascot going description and he looks well worth a shot at this level.
Strong Leader undoubtedly stamped his claims on this division when winning at Newbury, but there are reasons to question that form and the data suggests that he was a well-ridden winner of a relatively weak Grade 2. Crambo is harder to assess given his return from an absence, but in what looks to be a deeper race than 2023, he is easy enough to oppose. It’s slightly unoriginal to consider an Irish horse to be the most likely winner of a British Grade 1, but the claims of Hiddenvalley Lake and Wallpark are obvious and they look to be the most likely horses to fight out the finish.