Even if we accept the fact that the Grand National is a different test these days, it is still a fairly unique scenario for the horses going to post. As a result, there is a limited amount that we can take from the data of their earlier form in relation to the National and in particular, the modern Aintree fences. However, making allowances for that, I have looked at some of the data that TPD has amassed over the season and picked out 5 horses who should enjoy their trip around Aintree’s famous National course.
Senior Chief – Henry de Bromhead
He has been on my radar since finishing 6th in the Coral Trophy at Newbury in November. He ran the fastest final furlong on that occasion in 14.34s and his run-out speed of 27.94 mph saw him ranked 2nd in the field behind Victorrino (3rd) who went on to win his next 2 starts at Ascot. His jumping let him down at Newbury, as he lost an average of 11.3% of his speed over his obstacles, a figure that got progressively worse as the race wore on. Amongst the first 10 horses to cross the line, only Sam Brown (13.3% lost) put in a worse round of jumping, yet despite these errors, Senior Chief still finished his race full of running. If we were to go back 15 years, his jumping would be a major concern, but the softer national fences should actually aid his cause and he looks certain to stay with such a lightweight (10-10) on his back. His connections were clearly happy with his mark as we haven’t seen him over fences since. Instead, he blew away the cobwebs in a Pertemps qualifier at Naas in February. He finished 9th in that race under Rachel Blackmore, but it is fair to say that qualifying for the hurdles final at Cheltenham wasn’t high on the agenda. He came home in 16.91 and 17.24s, which was a faster final furlong than the winner Will the Wise and suggested that he had plenty more to give had he raced more prominently. He may lack the “class” of some of the more fancied runners, but he appears to have been aimed at this race for the entire season and the data suggests that he has a lot more to offer than his bare form figures might suggest.
Kandoo Kid – Paul Nicholls
The winner of the Coral Trophy in November, Kandoo Kid was the complete opposite to Senior Chief as he delivered a superb round of jumping with an average of just 7.3% of his speed lost over his obstacles. His jumping actually improved in the latter stages of the race, dropping to a low of 7.2% in the latter stages, the best in the field. He won that race with a burst of speed in the home straight, running the quickest penultimate furlong in 14.44s. At an average of 22.44 ft, he had the 2nd longest average stride in the field at Newbury and showed enough to think that he will be competitive in a Grand National, although we should acknowledge that this is certainly a much deeper race. His preparation for this race was less inspiring however, as he lacked his usual fluency when losing an average of 9.8% of his speed over his fences at Newbury at the start of March. He finished 9th that day over an inadequate trip and it’s hard to imagine that he was fully tuned up for that race, but he was beaten turning for home when the pace lifted. To his credit he kept going and when we rank the field by the time they ran the final furlong, in his case 15.88s, he comes 4th (5th by run-out speed at 25.10 mph), so it’s fair to say that he shaped like a horse who will improve for the outing, his first since November. His route to the race has followed a more conventional path as he has made his way through the handicap ranks and whether that will be enough in the modern version of the race is open to question. However, he shapes like a horse who will jump and stay and as such, he has a fair chance of hitting the frame.
Hitman – Paul Nicholls
Frustrating. It’s the only word to really describe this horse. He has the ability. In both starts so far in 2025 he has jumped nicely, losing an average of just 8.2% of his speed over his fences and 8.3% at Newbury. Both of those figures saw him ranked in the top 3, but jumping has never been his issue. Winless since 2022, Hitman has traveled well to the final 3-furlongs in both races, trading very short in the in-running markets, but he has found a way to lose. At Ascot, he ran 14.14s for the 19th furlong, the fastest in the field, yet despite Terresita coming past him in the home straight, he had a better run-out speed than the winner at 27.04 mph. On the plus side, he has an excellent record at 3-miles or beyond, finishing placed on all 3 starts, including 2nd placed finishes behind Shishkin and Djelo. His run-out speeds would suggest that he will stay this far and the nature of the Grand National should mean that he will get a tow into the latter stages. Whether he will go by when the time comes is certainly open to question, but his attitude and reputation might mean he is overlooked as an each-way option.
Beauport – Nigel Twiston-Davies
The winner of the 2024 Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter, he returned this season with a 31-length win over fences at Ascot. The strength of that form is open to question, but he produced a brilliant jumping display, losing an average of just 7.2% of his speed over his obstacles and there were signs that there was more to come as he clocked the best run-out speed in the field at 27.98 mph. Several runners in this year’s national have had their marks protected by running over hurdles, but Beauport has shown more than most over the smaller obstacles. He finished 3rd in the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot and although he was well placed to do so, that effort is a solid marker and he found only the course specialist Crambo and Hiddenvalley Lake too good in the closing stages. He ran below par when 2nd to Gwennie May Boy at Haydock last time, but the 106% finishing speed didn’t play to his strengths and he should be more suited by this return to an extreme trip. Even over 4-miles there is a danger that he will be outpaced, he has yet to exceed 35 mph this season, but he will be doing his best work in the final 2-furlongs and may well run into a place if getting round.
Monbeg Genius – Jonjo & AJ O’Neill
At the age of 9, he is relatively lightly raced over fences and has won 4 of his 12 chase starts. He finished 4th in this year’s Welsh National at Chepstow and on that evidence alone, he is probably 10 lbs short in this race. However, at both Chepstow (7.1%) and Uttoxeter (8.3%) he had the lowest speed lost average figure over his fences and his run-out speed of 28.74 mph last time would suggest that he was reaching his peak. He lacks a genuine turn-of-foot and is likely to find this step up in class a difficult assignment, but he is another horse whose jumping data suggests will get round and he may well be able to jump his way into a place.
You can find sectional times, stride data, speed statistics and jumping performance metrics on the At The Races RESULTS page.
The global database of sectional times, stride data and performance metrics is available through Total Performance Data.