We may not have Constitution Hill at Newcastle this weekend, but we do have what looks to be an intriguing match between Sir Gino and Mystical Power. It’s never an easy task for a 4-year-old to step into open company, but there is plenty of evidence from the data last season to suggest that Sir Gino may well be capable of doing so.
He has already produced top class performances at both Cheltenham and Aintree and I am particularly interested in his Triumph hurdle trial win at the former in January. He readily put 10-lengths between himself and the Greatwood Hurdle winner Burdett Road, coming home in closing furlong times of 13.36 and 13.38s and clocking a top speed of 36.24 mph. That form is perhaps below the level that Mystical Power reached in the Supreme and at Aintree, but the speed and fluency that he showed in the closing stages will make him very competitive here. When we make a comparison of the 2 horses from their respective runs at Aintree in April, there is every reason to believe that Sir Gino has the cruising speed to match his older rival.
I need to add the Caveat here that Sir Gino and Mystical Power ran on different days at Aintree and as such, an allowance needs to be made that they were running under slightly different conditions, even if the going description remained unchanged. Sir Gino won the Anniversary Juvenile with a finishing speed of 104.88%, compared with the 103.03% of Mystical Power in the Top Novices’ Hurdle the following day. Sir Gino took 44.22s to cover the last 3-furlongs, compared with the 44.35s taken by Mystical Power. Pound for pound there would appear to be very little between the pair in terms of speed.
Mystical Power has the stronger form. His narrow defeat behind Slade Steel in the Supreme Novices’ hurdle and his subsequent win in the Top Novices’ at Aintree puts him 2lbs ahead of Sir Gino according to the BHA handicapper. That’s open to debate perhaps, but I thought it was interesting that he was actually faster than Slade Steel over the final 3-furlongs at Cheltenham, coming home in 44.77s, compared with the 44.96s taken by the winner. That ultimately wasn’t enough as he was outstayed up the Cheltenham hill by Henry De Bromhead’s charge, but it does suggest he is a genuine Grade 1 hurdler. However, his jumping needs to improve. I watched the replay of the Supreme before writing this piece and by my count he was either slow or unbalanced at 5 of his 8 hurdles. Willie Mullins has had another summer with him to try and iron out these issues and it will be fascinating to see what the TPD Jumping Fluency data shows at Newcastle, but if the race develops into a match as the market suggests, Sir Gino’s jumping may prove crucial.
Is this a 2 horse race? The pair are only 4 lbs clear on the official ratings, but they are the only 2 in the field with genuine Grade 1 form to their names. Kihavah (136), Take No Chances (138+7) and even Brentford Hope (148) are not that far behind according to the handicapper, but they have yet to show that they are capable of Grade 1 performances and the latter was easily
outpaced by Rubaud at a crucial stage at Wincanton last time. His run-out speed of 30.2 mph did suggest that there was more in the tank and he would appear to want deeper ground, but his overall profile would suggest that his official rating of 148 is at his ceiling. I wouldn’t be too keen to suggest an each-way bet in this field as I would make it “Evens each of 2” between Sir Gino and Mystical Power, but if there is a possible improver in the field, it may well be Sam Thomas’ Lump Sum. He has won 4 of his 6 starts over hurdles and he showed a lot of speed to win the Welsh Champion Hurdle at Ffos Las last time, including a sub-13 second 14th furlong. The pace chart shown above would suggest that he does have the speed to match Sir Gino and the form was boosted when the 2nd placed Steel Ally won at Haydock last weekend. However, Steel Ally did finish faster than Lump Sum at Ffos Las and it should also be noted that he was readily outstayed by Mystical Power when 14-lengths behind him at Aintree. He should be capable of further improvement and will presumably be ridden to obtain his best possible finishing position, but I’d be surprised if he can do better than 3rd if we assume that the 2 at the head of the market get round.
In truth it’s almost impossible to call. Sir Gino has the better jumping technique and the higher cruising speed, Mystical Power has the better form. In a race of fine margins, I might just prefer Nicky Henderson’s charge as he appears to be less likely to make hurdling errors in the latter stages, but it is hard to say that there is any value in either price. The sectional times and the jumping fluency data from TPD should reveal plenty about both of their Champion hurdle credentials in next week’s review.