The season in Dubai is about to reach its zenith and there is a case to be made from the entries that this is one of the strongest race cards ever assembled at Meydan. There are Group 1 horses entered across the card and I have worked my way through the data provided by TPD to take a detailed look at some of those big names and the opposition that they will face on World Cup Night.
Sheema Classic
Calandagan should be at the head of the market for this race and there is no doubt in my mind that he would have won the Champion Stakes at Ascot in October with a clear run. He had a faster top speed than the winner at 40.80 mph, he had a better run-out speed 32.88 mph and his stride frequency actually increased in the final furlong when he got into the clear. However, even allowing for the decision made by Stephane Pasquier to head for the inside rail line, Calandagan’s issue has never been the end of his races, it’s the start. He took 14.03s for the opening furlong at Ascot, which saw him ranked 7th in the field and he had to be driven away from the stalls to get into position. It was a similar story at York, where lost 0.68s on City of Troy over the opening couple of furlongs and even when he won the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot, he ran 14.39s for the opening furlong which saw him ranked 13th of 14. He has the class to get himself into contention and I’m confident that he will win his Group 1 this season, but on his first run for almost 6-months, he may find himself behind once again and without race fitness against top class horses, that may prove a step too far.
Rebel’s Romance is the most obvious danger. He is a Breeders’ Cup winner and showed plenty of early speed to get himself into the right position at Del Mar, running 11.92s for the 3rd furlong, the fastest in the field. We didn’t learn a great deal from his recent comeback in Qatar where he was entitled to beat the field in the Group 3 HH The Amir Trophy, but it will give him a fitness edge. He will almost certainly be in front of Calandagan in the back straight and with experience around the turns at Meydan, he may be a hard horse to pass. I like Rebel’s Romance, but I think that the case for Shin Emperor is stronger.
There are clearly some unknown quantities in this field, not least the Japanese Derby winner Danon Decile. However, things didn’t go to plan for Shin Emperor in the Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe in October and as a result his overall form may be slightly overlooked. He isn’t the first (or likely the last) Japanese horse to run below par at Paris Longchamp and his form since has been outstanding. A narrow defeat in the Japan Cup was followed by an excellent all-the-way success in the Neon Turf Cup in Riyadh at the end of February. He took just 6.4s to reach 30
mph on that occasion and reached the 9-furlong pole in 9.58s, the fastest start in the 10 strong field. Whilst there is no doubt that this is a deeper race, the early speed that he showed last time should see him in a prominent position here, possibly even in front and on the balance of his form, he looks a solid each-way proposition as I don’t think there will be 3 horses capable of passing him in the straight.
Dubai Turf
After going down valiantly on his sword in the Riyadh dirt, Romantic Warrior returns to the turf here and he should be almost impossible to beat. He won the Jebel Hatta here in January by 4-lengths and lost nothing in defeat when narrowly denied by Forever Young last time after a difficult passage around the turn. He was the only horse to exceed 42 mph in the Jebel Hatta and with his huge stride, which reached a peak of 27.92 ft on that occasion, he should be able to get into a similar rhythm here and that will have most of his rivals out of their comfort zone from an early stage. He was also the fastest horse to reach 30 mph, taking 5.8s to do so, which should leave him in a prominent position once again. I’ve looked hard at the data to try to find a chink in his armour, but unless the Saudi Cup left a mark, there simply isn’t a reason to oppose him.
Liberty Island was 3rd in the Sheema Classic last season and the bare form, which included a 10.48s 11th furlong, would give him a small chance. However, he was beaten fairly by Romantic Warrior in the Hong Kong Cup in December and is probably running for 2nd place if the favourite runs his race. Nation’s Pride was a winner here at the start of March and brings solid Group 1 form to the table, but his top speed that day was just 40.42 mph and he will need to find an extra yard of pace to win this. Facteur Cheval won this race a year ago, but this is a much deeper race and his recent efforts, admittedly on dirt rather than turf, have been lacklustre and he was 2.39s slower than Romantic Warrior over the final 4-furlongs in Riyadh.
Soul Rush is the unknown quantity in the race. He has some decent form in Japan and his narrow defeat behind Voyage Bubble in the Hong Kong Mile would offer some hope that he will be able to translate his form to Dubai. However, he is yet to win beyond a mile and the early pace shown by Romantic Warrior is going to test his stamina. He finished 2-lengths behind the very progressive Sixpence in the Nakayama Kinen last month and should strip fitter for the benefit of that run. Whether his form and possible improvement will be enough to trouble Romantic Warrior is a different question (I suspect that the answer is No), but he is a capable horse and could be the one to chase home Danny Shum’s star.
Dubai World Cup
It’s very hard to get away from the case for Forever Young. Things certainly fell right for him in the Saudi Cup and as we discussed at the time, on another day Romantic Warrior may well have beaten him. However, he was the fastest horse in the final curling, coming home in 12.93s and he had a better run-out speed than the runner-up at 32.86 mph. The presence of Walk of Stars, who surely reverts to his earlier front running exploits back at Meydan, will give Forever Young another target to aim at and if he runs his race, he will be there in the final furlong. Is that enough to make me think that he is a certainty? Probably not. He won the UAE Derby on this card 12-months ago, but this is a much deeper race and there is some evidence from the Saudi Cup data to suggest that he was ideally placed to win in Riyadh.
Walk of Stars ran well below par in Riyadh, but on his earlier form at Meydan he would look to have a chance. He won the Al Maktoum challenge here in January, when he dominated in front, taking 31.40s to reach the 7-furlong pole, the fastest start in the field and then readily holding off Imperial Emperor in the closing stages. He took just 5.4s to reach 30 mph that day, which gave him an ideal start. By contrast, he took 5.8s to reach that speed in Riyadh and his average stride length of 24.28 ft, was shorter than the 25.39 ft that he averaged in January. It’s possible that the track may not have suited in Riyadh, but whilst I would expect him to be the pace angle in this race, it’s hard to be confident that he will stay there after such a below par effort last time.
Imperial Emperor was behind Walk of Stars in January and although he traveled nicely into the straight, he had no answer to the finishing kick from the winner, losing 0.42s over the final 2-furlongs and having a slower run-out speed (33.11 mph). He was the faster horse over the preceding 4-furlongs and he may possibly have had to work harder than it seemed to get on terms, but even if I make a case for him reversing the form with Walk of Stars, against a strong stayer like Forever Young, he must surely be vulnerable.
Although Forever Young was the best horse in the Saudi Cup, there were a couple of horses that chased him home and whose connections may well be hoping that they can get closer this time. The first is Ushba Tesoro, who was the runner-up in this race 12-months ago. He blew the start in Riyadh, losing 1.47s on the winner over the opening furlong with a 15.59s opening split, the slowest in the field. To his enormous credit, he recovered to finish 3rd, running 11.99 (7th) and 12.23s (8th) furlongs in the home straight, both of which were the fastest in the field. There is always the risk that he will miss the start once again, but in a smaller field that seems less consequential and he was an unlucky 2nd in this race 12-months ago behind Laurel River. Once again he was outpaced in the early stages, but he came home in 12.30 and 12.76s and had a far better run-out speed than the winner at 32.70 mph. He needs the cards to fall right for him and his race could be over after a furlong as it was in Riyadh, but he has the required stamina and if he doesn’t get too far back, it is worth noting that he was faster than Forever Young over the final 4-furlongs in the Saudi Cup.
If there is a horse to emerge from the pack, it may well be Rattle n Roll. He was a grade 2 winner in the US and after winning a Saudi Cup Qualifier in January, he acquitted himself well to finish 5th having been poorly placed towards the rear. He was only 2-lengths behind Ushba Tesoro and he had the fastest run-out speed in the field at 33.29 mph. Forever Young was still 0.18s faster than him in the final furlong, but Rattle n Roll acquitted himself well and he is another horse who may benefit from the smaller field. His top speed in Riyadh (39.24 mph) would leave him something to find and I don’t think that he is likely to race prominently as a result, but he should be staying on and may well be underestimated. I certainly think he has a better chance than Wilson Tesoro, who also raced towards the rear in Riyadh but who came home 1.43s slower than Rattle n Roll in the final quarter of a mile. In reality all of these horses are reliant on a very specific set of circumstances to be seen at their best. They need a strong pace, probably from Walk of Stars and then they need that pace to collapse so that their stamina can be brought into play.
Forever Young should win this race. He has experience of the track, his form from Riyadh, the Breeders’ Cup or even the Kentucky Derby would be enough to win this race in most years. It may well be his time and given the consistent stride length and speed that he showed to win the Saudi Cup, if he gets a decent position behind the pace, he should have too much for most of his rivals. I’m not particularly keen to take him on as a result, but I do think that some of the closers have been overlooked. Ushba Tesoro has the class and the stamina required, but there are risks attached with him at the start so perhaps Rattle n Roll is the better each-way alternative? There is no doubt that he has work to do to get close to Forever Young and he is highly likely to be outpaced at a crucial stage, but he saw out his race in Riyadh and should have something left in the final 2-furlongs. If he can be kept in some sort of contention, he may well outrun his odds as those in front of him tire.
You can find sectional times, stride data, speed statistics and jumping performance metrics on the At The Races RESULTS page.
The global database of sectional times, stride data and performance metrics is available through Total Performance Data.