The Flat is back! The first weekend in March has come and gone and we have had our first taste of the Flat season at Doncaster. Here is this week’s review of the data from TPD, specifically focussing on the action at Doncaster on Saturday afternoon.
William Hill Top Price Guarantee EBF Brocklesby Stakes
Norman’s Cay became the 2nd winner of this race for Richard Hannon in the last 5-years after Persian Force landed the Brocklesby in 2022 and given that they both ran in the Amo Racing colours, there are obvious comparisons being made. That seems a little presumptuous at this stage. A winning time of 1:01.72 is considerably slower than the 59.50s run by Persian Force on similar ground 3-years ago. In fact, if we look at the winning times for this race when the word “good” appears in the going description, this was the slowest winning time since Ravenhoe in 2015. An early season 2-year-old race is not the place to be making assumptions, but Norman’s Cay certainly knew his job and it’s what he did in the final 2-furlongs that would make him of interest going forwards. His top speed figure of 39.53 mph saw him ranked 8th of the 17-runners, but he was the fastest horse where it mattered most, running 12.04s for the final furlong (ranked 1st) and clocking a run-out speed of 35.12 mph. Richard Hannon’s post race interview implied that an uphill finish and 6-furlongs will be more suitable and given the way he has finished this race, it’s an obvious conclusion to draw. If the going stick reading is accurate, then this winning time would still be below the expected standard from the TPD database and so from a difficult position with 2-furlongs to run, Norman’s Cay has shown a fair degree of ability to get his head in front at the line.
When looking at those behind the winner, we have to start with the unlucky runner-up, Son of Sarabi. He has done very little wrong on debut, arguably travelling better than the winner behind the pace and he’s finished over a length in front of the remaining 15-runners. A colt by Cable Bay, he only cost 5,000 guineas as a yearling, but he outran his price tag here and should win a novice race in the weeks ahead. His pedigree would suggest that 2-year-old sprinting will suit and the stride data would support that. A much more compact horse, his average stride length of 22.74 ft was considerably shorter than the winner (Norman’s Cay 23.95 ft), but he clocked a higher top speed figure of 39.75 mph and with a peak stride frequency of 2.51 per second, he does have the ability to quicken when it matters.
Despite being sent off at an SP of 40/1, Exclamation has run a fine race to finish 3rd after a difficult passage through the field on the far side. He was the first horse home from the higher drawn numbers and has had to weave through runners at a crucial stage. He clocked 11.43s for the 2nd furlong and 11.41s for the 4th furlong, both of which were the fastest individual split in the field and with a clear run, he may have got closer to the first 2, although he is unlikely to have won. A top speed of 40.47 mph made him the fastest horse on the speed clock, but he will need to improve from the gate if he is to build on this promising debut. He took 6.6s to reach 30 mph, the slowest time in the field and although he ran exceptionally well to recover from that start, it ultimately cost him his winning chance.
In a contest with 17 unraced 2-year-olds, there are always going to be plenty of “eye-catchers” to watch. The best 3 horses on the day have filled the places, but I’d also like to highlight one more runner for the future and that’s the 7th placed Ahead of Fashion from the Dominic Ffrench Davis yard. Drawn in stall 13, he has raced keenly through the opening furlongs behind the winner and even though he was brought across to the stands side, he has been left behind by the first 2 when the pace quickens, losing 0.31s on the winner over the final quarter of a mile. However, despite hanging his head slightly, he has finished his race well, running 12.25s for the final furlong, a time only surpassed by the first 3 and having switched from a higher draw, he has run better than the bare result might suggest.
William Hill Best Odds Guaranteed Cammidge Trophy Stakes
This race was run at a solid early pace with a finishing speed of 100.15% and so it was no surprise to see 2 horses that sat behind that early pace fighting out the finish. I’ll start with Iberian who has arguably thrown this race away by hanging to his left in the final 2-furlongs. He won the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster as a 2-year-old and although he wasn’t able to build on that form as a 3-year-old last season, he did take his chance in both the 2,000 Guineas and the Prix Jean Prat at Deauville and the drop back into calmer waters has seen him in a better light. At 40.60 mph, he clocked a faster top speed than the winner (Spycatcher 40.38 mph) and was going best of all at the 2-furlong point where he ran 11.53s for the 5th furlong, the fastest in the race at that point. However, once through the gap in the field, he leaned away from the stick when Jason Watson asked him to quicken and even with only one strike, he shifted left and bumped into the winner. There’s no fault suggested here on the part of his jockey, who has ridden a superb race to get his mount cover and deliver him at the right time. However, hanging across the track has cost him momentum and he wasn’t able to recover, although frustratingly for his connections he had a better run-out speed than the winner at 32.84 mph. He should step forward for this run and clearly has the ability to win at this level, though he may need a cute ride to do so if he continues to race awkwardly when asked for an effort.
Iberian was perhaps unlucky, but Spycatcher has run a fine race and deserved this success. One of the first horses to come under pressure, he worked hard to get himself to the front and he was the fastest horse in both the 4th (11.41s) and the 6th furlongs (12.53s). This was a 7th career success and it is worth noting that his record after a break of 100-days or more now reads as 1,1,1,3,1. He is yet to back up one victory with another and he may well be a horse to catch first time out, but he should continue to run his race at this level and even allowing for the errors made by the runner-up, he has finished 2-lengths clear of the rest.
It’s difficult to make too many excuses for Marshman. He was race fit after a 2nd place finish at Southwell at the end of February and his pacemaker, Sophia’s Starlight, did her job, taking 5.4s to reach 30 mph (ranked 1st) and setting a strong gallop for him to aim at. At no point in the race has he run the fastest furlong and he has lost 0.42s on the winner over the final quarter of a mile. Clifford Lee reported to the Stewards that his mount was denied a clear run in the closing stages and he did have the best run-out speed in the field at 33.22 mph. However, he was niggled along from an early stage and never looked entirely settled under Clifford Lee and any interference did not appear to have an effect on the result. His stride frequency did increase into the final furlong, so it may well be worth exploring 7-furlongs with him now if he can settle better.
William Hill Doncaster Mile Stakes
There’s really only one horse to discuss in the Doncaster Mile and that’s the winner, Dancing Gemini. In a winning time 1.99s faster than Godwinson in the Lincoln Handicap 35-minutes later, he put 3-lengths between himself and the rest of the field in the closing stages to win with some authority. Finishing in 11.54 and 12.02s, both of which were the fastest furlongs in the field, he has hit the line strongly by recording a run-out speed of 34.36 mph. There was rarely a moment’s concern for Kieran Shoemark, whose mount increased his stride frequency to a peak race average of 2.44 per second in the penultimate furlong to pull clear of the remainder and in the same form, he will be a hard horse to oppose next time. Having finished 2nd in the French 2,000 Guineas and 6th in the Derby, this was a drop in class for his seasonal return, but this was still close to the level of form that he showed at Paris Longchamp in May and there is hopefully more to come now that his connections have settled on the mile trip for him.
William Hill Lincoln
Every review of this race will heap praise upon Cieren Fallon for his winning ride aboard Godwinson and quite rightly so. If we take the race one section at a time it shows a remarkably confident ride aboard a horse who gave himself an enormous amount to do. Godwinson took 8.4s to reach 30 mph, which saw him ranked 20th of the 22 runner field. In certain circumstances, a slow start can be advantageous when the pace begins to collapse, but with a finishing speed of 104.87% this wasn’t necessarily the case. A winning time of 1:40.09 is the slowest winning time in this race, when the word “good” appeared in the going description, since Smokey Oakey won in 2008. The steady pace is in part due to the fact that the entire field chose to come to the stands side in one group and as a result, many of those drawn high have finished behind the field at the end of the 2nd furlong. As the pace began to develop, Fallon guided his mount through the field with the runner-up as a target, quickening to run 34.83s for the final 3-furlongs and recording the best run-out speed in the field at 37.31 mph. For comparison, Spycatcher ran 35.54s for the final 3-furlongs of the Cammidge Trophy earlier on the card. He has now won 3 of his 10 career starts, although it should be noted that his best form in the last 18-months has come after a break, but given the nature of the races in this division, he should get another opportunity at some point throughout the season to repeat the dose.
Oliver Show has finished 2nd by a nose and there is a case to be made that he threw this race away by hanging left in the closing stages. Travelling at least as well as the winner at halfway, he had the first run on Godwinson and ran a faster penultimate furlong in 11.43s (Godwinson 11.51s) and with a better top speed of 39.88 mph, he arguably should have won. All 4 of his victories have come on the All-Weather, but he has been running well on turf, including when 2nd to Goemon in Bahrain on his penultimate start, a run that included a better top speed and run-out speed than the winner. He should remain competitive, though may be better with a rail to run against when making his challenge next time.
Godwinson and Oliver Show were the horses that drew the eye in the closing stages, but Orandi (3rd) has done this the hard way and emerges with an enormous amount of credit from this race. At 39.93 mph, he clocked the fastest top speed in the field and having made his challenge towards the centre of the track, he has run against the perceived bias on the day. He ran 11.41s for the penultimate furlong and if he had not been bumped by Oliver Show, he may well have finished closer to the winner. Having won the Irish Lincoln 2-weeks ago, he is clearly thriving and has run to a very similar level to finish 3rd here.
Plenty of horses had their chance, including the beaten favourite Midnight Gun (6th), who looked to have every chance before fading and losing 0.41s on the winner over the final quarter of a mile. If there was a disappointment in the Lincoln, it was probably Thunder Run. He certainly disappointed me. I made a strong case for him making all the running in the preview for this race and after 2-furlongs, I was relatively satisfied. He took 6.2s to reach 30 mph coming out of the stalls and with an opening furlong of 15.01s, he found himself in front. However, the alarm bells began to ring at halfway as the field began to challenge behind him and he lost 0.95s to the winner in the 6th and 7th furlongs, eventually finishing 15th. He has plenty of early speed in his locker, but much like at Ascot in October, that isn’t quite enough, especially away from Good to Firm ground and he has been outpaced on his most recent outings in the latter stages. He will win more races, but he may need similar conditions to the fast ground he encountered at York last summer in order to do so.
You can find sectional times, stride data, speed statistics and jumping performance metrics on the At The Races RESULTS page.
The global database of sectional times, stride data and performance metrics is available through Total Performance Data.