BetMGM Clarence House Chase (Grade 1)
Saturday’s feature race at Ascot is probably the last chance that we will get to see any Champion Chase clues on this side of the Irish Sea. The race does look to revolve around the current Ante-Post favourite for the race, Jonbon. He’s already won the Tingle Creek at Sandown this season and whilst it should be noted that he was beaten in this race 12-months ago, that race was re-routed to Cheltenham trials day and having made a shuddering error at the 4th last and did well to complete the course, let alone go down by a neck. He is a worthy favourite in his current form, but here’s a look at his data from TPD, as well as those that he is up against.
Jonbon
The statistics speak for themselves with Jonbon, 16 career wins, 8 of those at Grade 1 level and over £1m in prize-money earned. He didn’t need to improve to win the Tingle Creek in December, but he did run the fastest final 4-furlongs on the day in 62.71s, almost 2s faster than his nearest rival Quilixios (64.68s) and 0.79s faster than L’Eau du Sud managed in a slight;y more steadily run Henry VIII Novices’ Chase earlier on the card. A finishing speed of 100.18% from Jonbon would suggest a truly run race at Sandown and with the presence of Energumene on Saturday, he is likely to get a similar setup at Ascot. He clocked a top speed of 37.54 mph when winning the Shloer Chase at Cheltenham in November when he was perhaps still some way short of peak fitness and I do think he will be able to travel comfortably behind any early pace injected by Energumene. This has been billed in some parts of the media as a potential repeat of the Clarence House Chase of 2022 when Energumene was narrowly run down by Shishkin in the final strides. That was certainly one of the best races that I have ever had the privilege to see live, but Jonbon and Shishkin are very different horses.
Shishkin finished in furlongs of 14.66, 15.39 and 15.62s that day with an ever decreasing stride length, down to an average of 6.19m in the final furlong from a mid-race peak of 6.60m. He ground it out, but it was a case of Energumene tiring after the last (he finished in 15.44 and 16.07s) rather than Shishkin running past him. This time around, Energumene will face a horse who has won all 6 starts going right-handed and who possesses a much higher cruising speed.
Energumene
Willie Mullins’ charge has won a pair of Champion Chases and is arguably the best horse that Jonbon has faced over fences to date, but what can we glean from his return from a 593-day absence at Cork last month. It’s hard to tell, but what we can say is that he was allowed his own way in front, setting steady fractions before covering the final 4-furlongs in 55.62s at a finishing speed of 110.81%. For some contrast, Only by Night won the Mares Grade 2 Novice Chase on the same card with figures of 56.51s at 109.66% carrying 6 lbs less. However, a fence was omitted in the Hilly Way Chase and with finishing speeds around the 110% mark, it is hard to say that either contest was truly run as a piece of form. Would Banbridge have beaten Energumene had he not fallen at the last? Quite possibly. Either way it looks a solid piece of form, but it does not really have too much bearing on Saturday’s contest against what looks to be the best 2-miler in the division.
I won’t discount a horse who has won 13 of his 16 starts under rules, but I also have no doubt that Jonbon is a faster horse than Shishkin and probably a better jumper too. In 2022, Energumene gave it everything, quite possibly the best run of his career. He bounced out, ran 10.82s to the first furlong pole, 3 consecutive furlongs below 15s in the middle part of the race, 14.64s for the 14th furlong, had a longer average stride length and raced more efficiently and still didn’t hold off Shishkin. At the age of 11, after missing a year and taking on a rival with a much better cruising speed, it’s going to take a very clever ride from Paul Townend to expose a weakness in Jonbon.
The Rest
Is it an unfair assessment to put the rest of the runners in one heading? Possibly, but I don’t see any of the other 2 winning this race if Jonbon and Energumene complete the course. Edwardstone and Boothill are closely matched. The latter had a better top speed (38.25 mph) and a better run-out speed (26.8 mph) than Edwardstone in the Shloer Chase at Cheltenham and he does have a very good record at Ascot. However, that form has come in Handicaps and he is 0-3 against Jonbon, arriving on the back of a fall in the Desert Orchid at Kempton would also temper any enthusiasm I had for him sneaking a place. Edwardstone did finish 2nd in the Desert Orchid and with a finishing speed of 102.55%, that race was relatively strongly run. He ran the final 4-furlongs in 57s, which was just 1.32s slower than Sir Gino over the same course and distance, but he was ridden to come with a later run and it is worth noting that he finished in 14.02 and 15.35s, which was slower than the winner Soul Icon in 13.80 and 14.45s despite the fact that he raced closer to the pace. At the age of 11 after 33 starts, time is perhaps catching up with Edwardstone. It would be a very brave ride from either Tom Cannon or Bryan Carver to try and race alongside Energumene and it looks much more likely that they will both be given a patient ride and it should probably develop into a race for 3rd place between the pair. In a match race, my preference would be for Boothill given the speed he showed in the finish at Cheltenham in November and his good record at Ascot, but I doubt he can find anything better than that position against the big 2.
This is a Grade 1 where all of the runners are aged 9 or over. Whilst I’d love to be able to announce that I have discovered an angle into this contest, there doesn’t appear to be one. The official ratings and the form book would both point towards Jonbon and in this case the data from TPD would support that conclusion. Jonbon’s speed should allow him to keep pace with Energumene and it seems unlikely that he will be more than a length or 2 behind Energumene as they turn for home. Given how well he saw out his race in the Tingle Creek, he should have too much for his older rival after that.
You can find sectional times, stride data, speed statistics and jumping performance metrics on the At The Races RESULTS page.
The global database of sectional times, stride data and performance metrics is available through Total Performance Data.