A competitive Mares’ handicap for Newbury’s feature race on Saturday. We have to start with the top weight, Jasmine Bliss. Harry Derham’s mare has weight to concede but she has delivered on the track and deserves her place at the head of the weights. She has a 7 lb swing at the weights with La Pinsonnerie from their recent meeting at Southwell to contend with, but she was 11-lengths clear of her at the line and I would be confident that she will uphold that form if running her race. She lost an average of 6.1% of her speed over her hurdles at Southwell, but she got better as she went along, losing just 3% in the middle part of the race and 5.9% in the closing stages, both of which made her the most efficient jumper in the field. When asked for her effort, she clocked a top speed of 35.05 mph, the best in the field and she took 2.22 seconds out of the runner-up over the final quarter of a mile. Harry Derham has been operating at a strike rate above 30% in the last fortnight and given that she won a bumper here last March, there are no concerns about the track either. Jasmine Bliss has 4 lbs or more to give away, but she sets the standard that the others need to aim at.
When assessing her French form at the start of this season, I would have assumed that La Pinsonniere would have run in a Grade 2 novice hurdle last week rather than this, but she simply hasn’t quite reached the same level of form since joining Nicky Henderson. She was outpaced at Windsor, scrambled home with a front-running ride at Huntingdon and then was readily left behind by Jasmine Bliss last time at Southwell. She has had a good run-out speed on each occasion and should be better suited by the switch to this more galloping track, but there is no doubt that she has work to do to reverse the form with Jasmine Bliss, even with a swing at the weights.
Siog Geal was installed as the Ante Post favourite for this race when the markets opened earlier in the week. She finished 2nd in a Listed bumper at the Cheltenham November meeting and didn’t need to run beyond that level of form when winning on her hurdles debut at Catterick a month later. She hasn’t been able to concede a penalty on her subsequent starts, but there was no shame in a 3-length defeat behind Jubilee Alpha at Windsor in January and she looks fairly treated on an opening mark of 116. A concern might be her jumping. She lost an average of 7.5% of her speed over her hurdles in the latter stages of the Windsor race as she tired. Last time she was outpaced in a slowly run race where the winner, Bluey, was able to dictate in a race run with a finishing speed of 112%. Siog Geal did record a top speed of 36.78 mph that day, but the conditions allowed for that. The winner was pulled up in the Dawn Run Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle at the festival last week so we didn’t get a great guide into the strength of the form. However, I can say that Siog Geal has run her best races on good ground and in receipt of 9 lbs from Jasmine Bliss, she has an obvious chance.
At the weights, with a 4-year-old allowance, Clotilda comes out best. She has plenty of experience after 8 starts in France and if she runs to her mark of 117 she would have to go close. However, the race she won at Huntingdon in December was a small field affair that became a sprint with a finishing speed of 114% and she has been soundly beaten since. The
return to good ground may help, but she was 22-lengths behind Sunset Marquesa at Ffos Las and the 4-year-olds receive an allowance for a reason. Paul Nicholls has found her a good opportunity at the weights, but she needs to prove that she can handle a field like this and the data would suggest that she might struggle to maintain the gallop.
Joe Tizzard’s 6-year-old had some smart form in bumpers, including placed efforts in Listed bumper races at Market Rasen and Sandown and having won 2 of her 4 starts over hurdles, she steps up in trip for the first time on Saturday. A winner on Heavy ground at Ffos Las last time, she dominated the race despite a bad mistake at the 2nd last which resulted in her losing an average of 8.9% of her speed over her obstacles. Her jumping is a concern, she also lost 8.6% when unplaced in a 2-mile handicap here before Christmas, but she ran the fastest final 4-furlongs at Ffos Las and had the best run-out speed in the field at 25.81 mph and the step up in trip should bring out some improvement.
Others to mention include Betty’s Tiara who was a bumper winner on her debut at Stratford for Ben Pauling in 2023. She is 0-9 since, but has shown a fair level of form. Although behind Jasmine Bliss at Ludlow, she did have a better run-out speed of 29.08 mph. However, she was readily outpaced over this trip at Huntingdon last time where she lost 1.71s on the winner over the final 2-furlongs and that lack of a turn-of-foot would have to be a concern. Rockstown Girl has plenty of experience after 13 starts and the form of her win at Chepstow in October was boosted when the runner-up (Dameofthecotswolds) won her next 2 starts. However, she was outclassed in 2 starts thereafter and has been off the track since December, which makes her hard to assess.
Fergal O’Brien also runs Jakana. She has some very fluent jumping displays on her CV, losing an average of just 3.6% when winning at Southwell in December and backed that up with good figures at Sedgefield (6.6% Soft) and back at Southwell (5%) last time. She was beaten a fair distance by Jasmine Bliss and her jockey reported that she hung left, but she did see out the race well and had the best run-out speed in the field at 30.62 mph so she isn’t the forlorn hope that the form book might suggest. Crazierthandaisy was a winner of a Plumpton bumper and although she was behind Jakana ay Southwell, she did improve when finishing strongly to win at Warwick on New Year’s Eve. That was a career best, but her final furlong of 16.39s was the only time that she was the fastest horse in the field and that win came on soft ground. Under drying conditions, there would have to be a concern that she could be outpaced here.
At first I wanted to oppose Jasmine Bliss given the weight that she has to concede, but the data confirms the handicappers view that she has achieved the most in this field and her closing sectionals at Southwell would lead me to believe that there is more to come. Harry Derham has his team in excellent form and with a maximum stride of 23.03 ft last time, the longest in the field, she looks open to further improvement on this more galloping track.
You can find sectional times, stride data, speed statistics and jumping performance metrics on the At The Races RESULTS page.
The global database of sectional times, stride data and performance metrics is available through Total Performance Data.