Jonbon is yet to win at the Cheltenham festival. I’ll start there but I think we can make a case for him being unlucky in those circumstances rather than there being a specific issue for him at the track. In 2022 he bumped into Constitution Hill in the Supreme, in 2023 he met El Fabiolo in the Arkle, a horse who was subsequently sent off at odds of 2/9 to win a Champion Chase and last year the issues in the Henderson yard prevented him from running. He has won twice over course and distance in November and the data from his victory in the Clarence House at Ascot suggest that he is at the peak of his powers. He holds both Energumene and Edwardstone on that form and the data from TPD more than confirms this. He had the better top speed at 34.90 mph, the better run-out speed (a speed measured 2-seconds after he crossed the line) at 28.74 mph and he ran the best final 3-furlongs of the race (13.73, 14.66 and 15.21s). Edwardstone has been a wonderful servant for his connections, but he finished the Ascot race in 15.05 and 16.10s and at the age of 11, he looks to be a shadow of his former self.
If the rain came it might help Energumene get closer? I heard that question a lot on the preview circuit and although we have only limited evidence in the data from TPD, the balance of his form would look to suggest that is the case. When he ran at Ascot on soft ground in 2022, his observed average stride length was 21.59 ft, 0.5 ft above his expected figure. This year, on good ground, he averaged 22.06 ft, just 0.05 ft above his expected figure. It’s a small sample but it would clearly point to him enjoying the softer ground better as he showed when winning this race in 2022 and 2023 under those conditions. However, I think it is a case that he needs the soft ground to slow down the likes of Jonbon and Solness, rather than the fact that he must have those conditions to run his race. At the age of 11, I can forgive him the fact that he has probably lost a yard of pace, but his top speed at Ascot (34.45 mph) came some way below that of Jonbon and the latter looks to have the beating of him at this stage.
Both Jonbon and Energumene jumped efficiently at Ascot, losing an average of just 8.9% of their speed over their obstacles and that figure came despite the fact that Jonbon jumped to his left in the closing stages. His better form has certainly come on a right-handed track, but such an efficient jumping display would suggest that he will be equally effective at Cheltenham and had he not made a shuddering error in the rearranged Clarence House Chase at the track in January last year, I don’t think there would be any suggestion that the track is an issue for Nicky Henderson’s charge.
Can Jonbon be beaten? Well, if he can, I suspect that it will come from a new form line. I played with the idea of backing Quilixios each-way at first. He is a Triumph hurdle winner and I can easily forgive his poor showing in the Arkle when he lost his chance at the start. However, he was behind Jonbon in the Tingle Creek at Sandown in December, despite having a better top speed of 29.11 mph and over the final 2-furlongs, he came home in 15.99 and 18.60s, fully 1.33s slower than the winner. It looks too fanciful to suggest that form could be reversed here and he is held by at least 3 other Irish raiders based on their form from the DRF.
Although this race is being run on a different course, I don’t think the form from the Dublin Chase is likely to be reversed. Solness has always possessed a decent turn-of-foot, even going back to his first starts in France where he came home in 23.02s from the back of the 2nd last at Angers on his debut. So it is no surprise to see that his front-running style has brought out improvement. I can forgive his run behind Jonbon in the Tingle Creek, where a mistake at the first broke his rhythm and once behind, it was always going to be a tall order for him on his first try in Grade 1 company. He has more than made up for that since, readily reversing the form with Quilixios and beating both Marine Nationale and Gaelic Warrior in the process. A lot was made of him being given a soft lead last time, but I think that it is more likely that his blistering early pace had the horses out of their comfort zone. A finishing speed of 95.21% supports that theory and although all 3 horses to chase him home were faster over the final furlong, they were ridden to do so and with final furlongs of 15.98s (Marine Nationale) and 16.17s (Gaelic Warrior), neither of them were flying at the finish. In recent years the likes of Special Tiara and Politologue have caused upsets in this race with aggressive front-running rides and there has to be a chance that Solness could do the same.
I think Solness will lead and I am confident from the data that he will be in front at the 2nd last as a result. If he is able to match the early speed that he showed at Leopardstown, he is likely to stretch this field and the majority of his rivals will be out of their comfort zone. However, Jonbon is the best horse that he has ever faced and I’d argue that Jonbon’s best performance, his victory in the Celebration Chase at Sandown last April, came from a strongly run race with a finishing speed of 98.1%. Solness will get plenty of these horses in trouble with his aggressive running style, but Jonbon recorded a top speed of 37.54 mph when he won the Shloer Chase here in November, so we can be confident he will have the speed to keep up with Joseph O’Briens front-runner.
You can find sectional times, stride data, speed statistics and jumping performance metrics on the At The Races RESULTS page.
The global database of sectional times, stride data and performance metrics is available through Total Performance Data.