3:20 Wolverhampton
This looks to be a strong renewal of the Lady Wulfruna Stakes with 6 horses rated 100 or higher. Royal Zabeel is the “All-Weather” horse in this field and he has already won twice over the winter, including over this course and distance in January. He took just 6.0s to reach 30 mph in that race and was always ideally placed, kicking for home off the final bend. That form would still leave him with something to find and it is worth noting that the 3rd placed Bobby Bennu was faster over each of the final 3-furlongs, suggesting that the winner was well placed. Royal Zabeel couldn’t back up that win despite getting a similar setup at Southwell last time and he must surely be vulnerable against the better horses he faces here.
Witch Hunter is a Royal Ascot winner and he has had the benefit of a recent run after he made his seasonal return at Lingfield last week. It is hard to be overly enthusiastic about that return, where his top speed figure of 40.91 mph saw him ranked 7th of the 9 runners. He was conceding weight all round and from stall 1, he wasn’t ideally placed on the inside of the track and he certainly wasn’t asked for everything when coming home in 11.02 and 11.48s. His average stride length (7.70 m) and his average stride frequency (2.36 per second) did reach their peak in the penultimate furlong and if he is turned around quickly, he should improve for that first run in 132-days. There are risks attached, he is a tricky ride and needs to get the gaps at the right time, but he has spent the majority of his career running in graded company and there is a possibility that the race could open up in front of him. Last week’s return was better than it looked according to the data and he is the first horse that I couldn’t put a line through in this contest.
Willem Twee is a 4-time winner on the All-Weather and there was no shame in being outclassed by the highly progressive Night Raider on a couple of occasions at Newcastle in the autumn. However, he has always needed his first run after a break in the past and he struggled for pace last time, where his top speed of 42.23 mph was some way behind the opposing Golden Mind (42.97 mph).
Golden Mind produced a career best when winning at Kempton last month and the fact that he was the fastest horse at the start, taking 4.0s to reach 20 mph and he was the fastest horse after the line with a run-out speed of 36.42 mph would back up that view. However, the track at Kempton has certainly been favouring the horses who race prominently in recent weeks and that race had a finishing speed of 110.78%, so it is also fair to add that he was ideally placed to win that day. He could dictate once again, but it seems less likely in this contest with several others who have shown a propensity to go forwards in their more recent starts.
Fair Angellica is unbeaten in her 3 starts on the All-Weather and the form of her latest start (4th) in the Sceptre Stakes at Doncaster is working out well. She has an absence to overcome, but she has shown good early speed and getting her 5lb sex allowance here, she can’t be ruled out. The obvious concern, aside from her fitness, is that she will face competition in front and she was tiring at the end of the 7-furlongs at Doncaster, where her average stride length dropped from 7.48m to 6.9m in the final 2-furlongs. With an unblemished record on the All-Weather she can’t be written off entirely, but those wins have come in lesser company at Kempton and despite the fact that I expect her to be in contention as they turn for home, I think there are others with good claims to come past her.
Al Shabab Storm comes into this race with the highest official rating of 110. This will be his first start since switching from Andrew Balding to Marco Botti and it will also be his first start on the All-Weather. He was a Group 3 winner in Germany last summer and on the pick of his form he should be competitive. On 6 of his last 7 starts, he has exceeded an average stride frequency of 2.4 per second and I do believe that he will have the necessary speed to be competitive at this level. Whether he will handle the surface is open to question, but his dam did win at Wolverhampton in 2018 and there is no evidence to suggest that he won’t run well on the Tapeta. The bigger concern is both the return from a break and the fact that he ended last season under a cloud when trailing in last of 9 in the Park Stakes at Doncaster having been easily outpaced in the final 2-furlongs. That form makes him hard to recommend.
Jabaara was the ante post favourite for this race when the markets opened and she is the horse who is open to the most improvement. Twice a winner in Listed company last summer, her 2nd placed finish behind Porta Fortuna in the Falmouth Stakes is by far the best piece of individual form on offer here. She was a little unlucky to be disqualified and placed 2nd in the Oak Tree Stakes at Goodwood on her latest start and there is a chance that she will prove to be a class above this field. However, she hasn’t run since and all of her best form has come in races that were run with a strong early pace. Her victories at Musselburgh and Carlisle came with finishing speeds of 103.6% and 102.2% respectively and the Falmouth was run with opening furlongs of 15.68, 11.87 and 11.85s. By contrast, although she showed plenty of speed at Goodwood, with penultimate furlongs of 10.83 and 10.83s, she was caught for pace in the final strides and the finishing speed of 107.22% that day, would suggest that she would prefer a faster gallop to run against.
There are plenty of pace angles into this race and it seems likely that it will set up nicely for Jabaara, who may well prove to be a Group 1 filly running unpenalised in a Listed race. Her sectional times at Goodwood and the fact that she clocked a top speed of 42.73 mph in that race would suggest that she will have too many gears for her rivals here if ready to go after a break. She was beaten on her comeback last season at Chester though and that would be a slight concern. If she wins, then the race has run to form but I think she may be vulnerable after a break of 220 days away from the track and for that reason I will look to get her beaten with Witch Hunter. He ran better than the result might suggest last week and should get this race run to suit. Having won on both his previous starts at Wolverhampton, there are no concerns about how he will handle the track or the surface and whilst there are always risks attached with backing a horse who hasn’t won for 19-months, I think that he represents some decent each-way value against those at the head of the market who have bigger targets ahead.
You can find sectional times, stride data, speed statistics and jumping performance metrics on the At The Races RESULTS page.
The global database of sectional times, stride data and performance metrics is available through Total Performance Data.