This is the last Grade 1 race before the Cheltenham festival. Are there likely to be too many Cheltenham clues in this contest? Well, probably not, but there are a couple of angles to look at from the TPD data for what is a competitive race in its own right.
I’ll start with the horse that can’t win. Flegmatik has an official rating of 130, leaving him the best part of 30lbs to find at these weights and he finished tamely when 3rd at Kempton in a handicap last Friday. His run-out speed of 18.95 mph was the slowest of those to finish and other than picking up some minor prize-money in a small field, he seems unlikely to get involved.
Le Patron is harder to assess. He has been a non-runner from his last 2 entries at Windsor and Newbury on account of the ground, so it will be interesting to see if he is allowed to take his chance on Saturday. He was a winner at Newbury in November when he jumped very efficiently, losing an average of just 6.6% of his speed over his obstacles and running the final half a mile in 56.47s, more than a second quicker than anything else in the field. He is a Grade 1 winner over fences and if he arrived in that form he would have a small chance, even allowing for the improvement that he needs to find based on the official ratings. However, he ran poorly next time at Cheltenham, when fading from the top of the hill and the form of the December Gold Cup is a long way behind the level that is likely to be required here.
Now we come to the Irish Challengers and this form is harder to assess. I’ll start with Blue Lord. He hasn’t quite hit the heights that we may have thought he would a few years ago, but he has run consistently at least and he has chased home the likes of Energumene and Solness this season. However, he is without a win since December 2022 and his most recent effort, when beaten 33-lengths over Christmas at Leopardstown, wouldn’t offer too much hope. He was easily outpaced and came home in 61.64s from the 4-furlong pole, fully 5-seconds slower than the winner (Solness). The return to an intermediate trip looks to be the right move, he was just 6-lengths behind Fastorslow in the 2023 John Durkan on his last start at this distance, but at the age of 10, he looks to be regressing and it would take a lot of faith to think he could return to his earlier form now.
Corbett’s Cross drops back in trip after a 6th placed finish in the King George at Kempton on Boxing Day. That race didn’t suit him and when we compare his top speed (33.62 mph) to that of Il Est Francais (34.54 mph) and Banbridge (35.19 mph) it highlights the challenge that he faces here. The stiff finish at Ascot should help him, but he has 9-lengths to find with L’Homme Presse, who was 0.43s faster than him over the last 2-furlongs at Kempton and with a fast pace likely to be set by Pic D’Orhy, he could find himself out of his comfort zone from an early stage here.
L’Homme Presse finished 2nd in this race last season when he struggled to match the early pace of Pic D’Orhy. He lost an average of 9.7% of his speed over his obstacles in the early stages of the race and this increased to 11.5% in the middle section. He rallied well, but in a race run at a good gallop with a finishing speed of 102.75% despite the small field (4-runners) his lack of early pace was exposed. Since that defeat, he has finished 4th in a Cheltenham Gold Cup, 3rd in a King George and won a Cotswold Chase on his latest start. There is no doubt that his form is the strongest on offer here, but all of those races came over longer trips and he did need every yard of the Cheltenham hill to get the better of Stage Star last time. His top speed (35.46 mph) was considerably slower than Stage Star (37.07 mph) at Cheltenham and in a steadily run race with a finishing speed of 111.60%, he only just got his head in front. We need to make some allowance for the fact that Charlie Deutsch chose to take him wider at Cheltenham, but it did raise the question as to how much speed L’Homme Presse can muster and over a shorter trip on drying ground, he may well be vulnerable.
Pic D’Orhy has an incredible record over fences at Ascot. He has won his last 3 starts over this course and distance, including this race 12-months ago and even his defeat in this race in 2023 came at the hands of Shishkin. This is his Gold Cup. He isn’t going to the festival and despite the drop in form from the Nicholls yard this season, Pic D’Orhy is the horse to beat. As we have already discussed, his speed last year allowed him to get L’Homme Presse out of his comfort zone and he looks to have a very good chance of repeating the dose on Saturday. He didn’t need to be at his best when winning the 1965 Chase at Ascot in November, but he still dominated in front, losing an average of 10% of his speed over his fences and running out an easy winner over Hidden Depths. That form doesn’t stand out, but his earlier Ascot form does and the data from TPD would appear to suggest that he will have the best turn-of-foot to lead this field. Against rivals who are perhaps past their prime or who would at least prefer a longer trip, he looks very hard to oppose.
You can find sectional times, stride data, speed statistics and jumping performance metrics on the At The Races RESULTS page.
The global database of sectional times, stride data and performance metrics is available through Total Performance Data.