Before the Jumps season reaches its climax on Saturday afternoon, there is an excellent Flat card at Sandown on Friday. I have looked through the data from TPD to examine the runners going to post for the Classic trial at 3:35 as we continue to look for 3-year-old clues for 2025.
Damysus (John & Thady Gosden)
This is a significant step up in class for this son of Frankel on just his 2nd start and the form of his Southwell debut in December is certainly open to question given that those in behind him are 1 from 11 since. However, in a professional performance, he clocked the fastest top speed at 40.56 mph, the fastest run-out speed at 35.93 mph as well as running the fastest final furlong in 11.90s, despite drifting to his left in the closing stages. Having been sent off at an SP of 8/11, he was clearly showing plenty at home too and the fact that the Gosden team have pitched him in at this level on just his 2nd start speaks volumes for the regard in which he is held. John Gosden has won this race 8 times, most recently with Sevenna Star in 2018 and having enjoyed so much success at the Craven meeting last week, Damysus needs to be respected, even if his rivals have more experience on their side.
I Am I Said (Ralph Beckett)
A 4-length winner on debut at Newmarket in October, I Am I Said had 2 subsequent winners behind him when asserting in the closing stages on the Rowley Mile under Richard Kingscote. Initially settled towards the rear, he made consistent headway, finishing his race with furlongs of 11.93, 11.93 and 13.28s, each of which were the fastest individual split in the 9-strong field. A finishing speed of 101% certainly helped his cause, but at an average of 7.15m he had one of the longer strides in the field and he pulled readily clear of a good field on the rising ground at Newmarket, 0.32s faster than any other horse in the final furlong. He is open to any amount of improvement and should have the opportunity to put his Derby credentials to the test at Sandown on Friday.
Sir Dinadan (Ralph Beckett)
Beaten on his first 2 starts last Summer, the step up to 10-furlongs for the first time at Pontefract in October seemed to bring about significant improvement for Sir Dinadan, who ran out an easy 8-length winner. Quickly into stride from his low draw, Rossa Ryan was able to control the pace in front before kicking clear up the Pontefract hill with closing furlongs of 13.01 and 13.54s, over a second faster than any of his rivals over the final quarter of a mile. The bare form has yet to be tested this season, but he was a dominant winner in a race run with a finishing speed of 103% on soft ground. He struggled over the shorter distances last season and may lack the scope for improvement that some of his rivals have at this level, but he could well be the pace angle in this race and it will be interesting to see how far he can lead the field into this deeper contest.
Swagman (Aiden O’Brien)
Although we haven’t seen Swagman since July, it would be unfair to describe him as a test runner for Aiden O’Brien. He may not be the leading Classic contender at Ballydoyle, but his 2-year-old form with the subsequent Group 1 winner Hotazhell looks better now than it did at the time and he is not without a chance in this lineup. He recorded a top speed of 38.08 mph when 2nd to Hotazhell in the Group 3 Tyros Stakes at Leopardstown, a speed only surpassed by the winner and having made most of the running, he can perhaps be forgiven the fact that he lost 0.62s on his main rival over the final quarter of a mile. He wasn’t the Ballydoyle first string in that race, as the 3rd placed Surpass, who disappointed as a short-priced favourite and has subsequently been sold to race in Hong Kong, was the choice of Ryan Moore on the day. However, despite seemingly acting as a pacemaker for his stablemate, he boxed on well in the closing stages to hold on for 2nd place behind what proved to be a Group 1 performer. I have no doubt that Aiden O’Brien has stronger 3-year-old prospects to run, but he has already proven himself at this level and shouldn’t be written off just because his trainer has better types at home in Ireland.
Windlord (Andrew Balding)
Windlord also has form with Hotazhell and a case could certainly be made that Andrew Balding’s charge comes into this race with the strongest 2-year-old form on offer. He finished 2nd in a Novice race behind Anno Domini in July and regular readers of this column will know how highly I rate that form given that the 3rd and 4th are now both rated in the 90s. He clocked both a faster top speed (38.41 mph) and a better run-out speed (31.5 mph) than the winner that day despite making most of the running. He broke his maiden tag at York in September before a fine 3rd placed finish in the Beresford Stakes at the Curragh 3-weeks later. Having been slightly keen in the early stages, he was dropped to the rear of the 5-runners by Billy Lee and was perhaps slightly unlucky to concede first run to the winner as a result. However, when asked for his effort, he closed in 24.12s for the final 2-furlongs, just 0.12s slower than the winner with a top speed figure of 39.95 mph. Oisin Murphy will no doubt be hoping that Sir Dinadan is sent forwards to set a decent early pace to help him settle, but Windlord should not be underestimated and at this stage of their careers, he has achieved the most in this lineup.
This is a difficult race to call with so much potential for improvement on show. Sir Dinadan is likely to lead, although the data from TPD would suggest that he has too much to find to be able to stay there. However, the race should form behind him. Swagman and Windlord bring Group form to the table, but the latter needs to settle better, especially in a small field and so I will take him on with I Am I Said. He pulled clear under a hands ride on his debut at Newmarket and despite the strong early pace, he seemed to travel within his comfort zone throughout that debut performance. This race should set up perfectly for him and he looks more than capable of taking this rise in class in his stride.
You can find sectional times, stride data, speed statistics and jumping performance metrics on the At The Races RESULTS page.
The global database of sectional times, stride data and performance metrics is available through Total Performance Data.