The All-Weather season reaches its climax with Finals Day at Newcastle on Friday. I have looked through the data from TPD and picked out 5 horses to follow on the showpiece card as the winter season comes to a close.
Bowmark – BetMGM Burradon Stakes (Listed Race) – Newcastle 1:15
A winner on debut at Kempton in December, Bowmark made a striking impression for the Gosden team with a comfortable 4-length success under Kieran Shoemark. Quickly into stride with an opening furlong of 14.88s (ranked 3rd), he settled behind the early leader despite being slightly keen in his rider’s hands. In a race run with a finishing speed of 110%, he was ideally placed, but when the pace lifted with 3-furlongs to run he quickened readily, coming home in 11.64, 10.97 and 11.66s. The penultimate furlong of 10.97s is the eye-catching figure and he was given a good education by Shoemark under a hands drive in the closing stages, but with a top speed of 41.32 mph, a clear best in the 13-strong field, he showed himself to be an above average Colt. At an average of 7.16m, his stride length would suggest that he is a relatively compact son of Kingman, but he showed plenty of speed on debut and should handle the tapeta surface given that his half-brother (Hidden Story) won here in 2023. His Dam, Bound, was a Listed winner over 10-furlongs for Aiden O’Brien and is a half-sister to the Derby winner Serpentine, so it is not surprising to see that he holds an entry in the Dante and is clearly thought capable of staying further than a mile. This looks like a good place to start his 3-year-old season and the stiff finish at Newcastle should be well within his range. There are several promising 3-year-olds in this line up and he has a decent standard to aim at, but the speed that he showed on debut would suggest that he will be able to be competitive on his 2nd start for the Gosden team.
Berkshire Whisper – BetMGM All-Weather 3 Year Old Championship Handicap – Newcastle 1:50
Having run 3 times since the beginning of January, it has been a busy winter for Berkshire Whisper, but he looks to be one of the most promising 3-year-olds to have emerged on the all-weather this season. He finished 2nd on debut behind Megaphone at Kempton in January. That form has worked out nicely with the winner going in at Wolverhampton next time under a penalty and the 3rd also winning a novice race subsequently. Berkshire Whisper was held up in rear that day, which didn’t suit in a race run with a finishing speed of 108%. However, when asked to close, he quickened to a top speed of 41.27 mph and finished in 11.02 and 11.74s furlongs, both of which were the fastest splits in the race. A run-out speed of 35.68 mph, also the fastest in the field, suggested that there was more to come, He duly broke his maiden tag on his 2nd start when sent off a short-priced favourite for a novice contest at the same track 4-weeks later under Oisin Murphy. He didn’t need to improve to win a 4-runner Novice race under a penalty at Newcastle on his latest start, but it did give him experience of the track and he recorded the fastest top speed figure of 41.5 mph to confirm his dominance over his rivals. An opening handicap mark of 89 looks very fair and given the run-out speed figures that he has recorded when finishing his novice races, a strong pace up the hill at Newcastle should bring out further improvement. At 7.13m, his average stride length (recorded on his latest start) was relatively compact, but that is perhaps indicative of the slow early pace set in a 4-runner race with a finishing speed 111.8% and when the pace lifted, he stretched out to an average of 7.48m and should be doing his best work in the closing stages of this race on that evidence.
Cloud Cover – BetMGm Fillies’ and Mares’ Championship Handicap – Newcastle 2:25
The winner of this race 12-months ago, Cloud Cover is now a 7-time winner on the All-Weather and has already added the Listed Prix Miss Satamixa Stakes at Deauville to her impressive CV this winter. She has an official rating of 103, which makes her stand out in this field and if she arrives in the same form that she showed when winning over course and distance in January, she will be very hard to oppose. Dropped in from a low draw in stall 2, she was the slowest horse to reach 30 mph in 8.2s. However, she made smooth headway under a very relaxed Clifford Lee to win comfortably, clocking 12.39s for the final furlong (ranked 1st) and recording the best run-out speed in the field at 31.81 mph. The form of that race is certainly open to question given the fact that the runner-up has been beaten off marks in the mid-70s since, but Cloud Cover barely had to lengthen her stride to get on top that day and she has already shown herself to be capable of running to her lofty mark. On her latest start, her average stride frequency remained between 2.27 and 2.37 per second throughout the race, showing that she is capable of running an efficient race and with a good pace to track, she should be able to stalk the leaders and pounce late to win this race for a second time.
Smart Hero – BetMGM All-Weather Easter Classic Middle Distance Handicap – Newcastle 4:07
Smart Hero took 5 attempts to get off the mark for James Tate, but since stepping up in trip on the All-Weather he has found plenty of improvement including wins in both his most recent starts on the tapeta at Wolverhampton. He won over the extended mile in January, clocking 11.88s for the final furlong and the fastest run-out speed in the field at 36.46 mph when quickening through a gap on the inside rail. He built on that effort when stepping up another furlong in trip again in February. Despite taking a fierce hold, he finished strongly from mid-division under Clifford Lee, running 11.60 and 11.64s for the final 2-furlongs, both of which were the fastest splits in the field and recording another fastest run-out speed of 35.75 mph. Everything in the data from TPD would suggest that this 10-furlong trip will be well within his range and with the yard operating at a 30% strike rate, he can’t be ignored.
Roaring Legend – BetMGM All-Weather Championships Marathon Handicap – Newcastle 4:42
It’s very hard to ignore a horse that has won his last 3 starts and given that Roaring Legend is unbeaten since joining Hugo Palmer, he looks to have a favourites chance in Friday’s finale. A winner over hurdles for Olly Murphy, he has taken to the All-Weather nicely over the winter, winning all 3 starts despite the relatively slow pace that he has encountered. His latest victory at Lingfield on 28th February has worked out very well, with the 3rd, 6th and 7th all winning on their next starts and given that he was 5-lengths clear at the line, it can only add to the confidence behind him on Friday. That contest had a finishing speed of 115%, so I do need to add that he was ideally placed in front to take advantage of that slow pace, but he ran 11.07 and 10.97s for the 14th and 15th furlongs and that turn-of-foot quickly put the race to bed. A top speed of 41.14 mph makes him very dangerous at this level and he was able to win eased down under a confident ride from David Probert. Despite having weight to concede, the data would suggest that he is the fastest horse in this field and if he can get into a prominent position, he should prove hard to beat.
You can find sectional times, stride data, speed statistics and jumping performance metrics on the At The Races RESULTS page.
The global database of sectional times, stride data and performance metrics is available through Total Performance Data.