April is here and although it seems like a very sudden change, we are now into the Flat season as the Guineas trials get underway. It seems a little strange to have the Greenham before the Craven meeting this year, but the Newbury contest looks to be a very strong renewal on paper. Here’s a look through some of the key data for the first of the trial races for the 2,000 Guineas next month.
It could certainly be argued that Al Qudra has strong claims for the Godolphin team. He had a very busy 2-year-old campaign that culminated in a run at the Breeders’ Cup and he arrives here on the back on 2 starts in the Middle East. He won the Al Rayyan Mile in Doha on his latest start and with race fitness on his side, he makes obvious appeal. His Juvenile form, including a victory over New Century at Ascot in July, would suggest that he will be able to drop back to 7-furlongs without too many issues and the form of that Pat Eddery Stakes, where he clocked both the highest top speed (42.61 mph) and the best run-out speed (33.3 mph), could hardly have worked out better. He made the running that day and kicked readily clear in the closing stages despite drifting slightly to his right in the final furlong. Given his experience and race fitness, I expect him to be given an aggressive ride on Saturday and he would look to be the horse that the others will need to pass in order to win. He is certainly fit from his campaign in the Middle East, but given that the last 14 winners of this race were making their first start of the season, that fitness edge shouldn’t be overplayed here.
Chancellor has work to do with Al Qudra to overturn that Ascot form. He finished 3rd in the Pat Eddery Stakes, beaten 4-lengths and although he won next time at Doncaster, that came in Novice company and he was able to control the pace in a 4-runner race with a finishing speed of 108%. He tracked the pace set by Al Qudra at Ascot, but wasn’t able to quicken in the closing stages, losing 0.33s on the winner over the final 2-furlongs and recording a much slower top speed of 39.21 mph. He is open to any amount of improvement as a 3-year-old, but he will need to find more speed to be competitive here and I thought the early Ante Post price (he is available at 3/1 generally at the time of writing) was perhaps a reflection of his connections rather than what he has actually achieved on the track.
With an official rating of 113, Rashabar is the best horse in this race according to the handicapper and he certainly makes obvious appeal. This race does have a record of going to the horses who have achieved the most as a Juvenile with 9 of the last 13 winners having an official rating of 110 or more. A winner of the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot, he carried his form very well in a pair of Group 1 performances in France after that and if he runs to that level, he will surely be involved in the finish here. He clocked the best run-out speed in the field in the Coventry Stakes at 34.23 mph. He was perhaps slightly unlucky in the Jean-Luc Lagardere at Paris Longchamp in October when he was caught behind the leader coming out of the false straight and had to be driven through a gap on the far side. The winner, Camille Pissarro,
enjoyed a much smoother passage on the outside of the field under Ryan Moore, but Rashabar stayed on strongly to push him all the way to the line, running a faster final furlong in 11.93s. Rashabar will almost certainly stay a mile this season, but he was caught out for speed at Longchamp and his top speed of 64 km/h was some way behind the 65.1 km/h clocked by the winner. He will be doing his best work at the finish, but on drying ground, there is a definite risk that he could be outpaced over this trip and for that reason I’m relatively keen to take him on at this stage of the season.
Jonquil was a winner on debut at Sandown last summer, but he blew his chance at the start in the Listed Flying Scotsman Stakes, fly leaping out of the stalls and running opening furlongs of 15.21 and 11.63s. That left him with too much to do in a race dominated by those who raced prominently and he is better judged on his Sandown debut, where both the 2nd and 5th won next time. This will be his first start for Andrew Balding and he remains a Colt with huge potential, although this is a very significant step up in class for him to deal with. However, Juddmonte had several other entries for this race and they have chosen to stick with him and given their record in this race, he can’t be entirely dismissed.
Amo Racing have made a fast start to 2025 and given that Diablo Rojo has the benefit of a recent run, it seems fairly safe to assume that he will be ready to run his race on Saturday. In reality, he won a relatively strong novice race at Lingfield in March. David Egan seemed keen to get him some cover in the early stages and he showed a great attitude to come through runners in the home straight to win going away, with 2 previous winners in behind him. A top speed of 42.52 mph and a run-out speed of 39.68 mph were a clear best in the field and he seems likely to get a decent pace to sit behind at Newbury too. This is a significant step up in class and he was firmly put in his place behind The Lion in Winter in the Acomb at York last season. However, that run came just 3-weeks after his racecourse debut at Redcar and as a result, the York form is perhaps worth forgiving. He finished in 10.58 and 11.12s at Lingfield, sectional times that certainly caught the eye and with a winning time of 71.56s, just 0.16s outside of the TPD standard time, he can’t be ignored either.
Once-raced maiden winners do not have a good record in this race, but the only Irish trained runner in the field, Saracen, is still worthy of respect. He won on debut for Joseph O’Brien at the Curragh in October, pulling clear to win by 4-lengths and finishing in 11.50 and 12.82s furlongs. They were the best closing sectional times in the field and he hit the line well, but the form is open to question. The runner-up, Pickersgill, did win next time, but he has an official rating of 76 and there haven’t been any other winners in behind subsequently. This looks more likely to be an entry to assess where the Irish trained Guineas horses are in relation to their UK trained counterparts, but he could not have been more impressive on debut and warrants respect even if the stats are against him. In his At The Races stable tour Joseph O’Brien said “He was impressive in his only start last season. I’d say we’ll start him back over six furlongs and feel our way with him from there. I’d imagine he’ll go up in trip sooner rather than later. The hope is that he’ll prove to be a stakes horse”.
We also have several 3-year-olds coming into this race with form on the All-Weather over the winter, the most interesting of which is surely Rogue Allegiance. He was a winner on debut at Newcastle in December when he came from the rear of the field with the stands rail to help to win by 6-lengths. He had a pair of subsequent winners behind him that day, although we should note that the runner-up won a handicap on a mark of 61 on Wednesday. However, he had the highest top speed of 41.25 mph and was the fastest horse in each of the final 3-furlongs, closing in 35.85s. This is an enormous step up in class from his Newcastle debut, but he showed a good attitude and won eased down, so he can’t be entirely dismissed.
This is a very difficult race to form a strong opinion for as every runner is open to any amount of improvement as a 3-year-old. The recent history would point towards Rashabar and I have no doubt that he has achieved the most in this field, but this is going to be much quicker ground than we would normally see at Newbury in April and I would have my concerns that he could be outpaced and left with too much ground to make up. The history of this race in recent years would suggest that a fresh horse is the key to finding the winner, but I’m going to take on that statistic with my selection DIABLO ROJO. He is race fit from the all weather and I think that Al Qudra is likely to get to the front in the early stages and give him a target to aim at. On quicker ground, he should be able to travel strongly behind that pace and with his recent experience, he may well be able to hold off the majority of his rivals when asked for his effort.
You can find sectional times, stride data, speed statistics and jumping performance metrics on the At The Races RESULTS page.
The global database of sectional times, stride data and performance metrics is available through Total Performance Data.