The Grand National meeting has been and gone for another year. There was a lot of racing to look at this weekend and it would be impossible to fit it all into a single blog post. For that reason, I have decided to specialise in what will be our final piece of Jumps content this season and have focussed on the 3 Grade 1 Novice Chases run at Aintree this week.
EBC Group Manifesto Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)
This race had a finishing speed of 108.2% and although Gidleigh Park set a fair early pace, on some of the quickest ground that we have seen so far this season, the race did take some time to develop. A winning time of 4:58.58 made this the fastest renewal of this race since Clarcam won in 2015. Gidleigh Park arrived into this race with solid form courtesy of a 9-length victory over Caldwell Potter at Windsor in January. That form was boosted when the runner-up won at the Cheltenham festival and some of the data from that Windsor victory did suggest that he might be capable of running well at this level. He lost an average of just 6.1% of his speed over his obstacles, easily the best jumping performance in the field and despite the softer ground that day, he still clocked 34.81 mph. Sent forward by Brian Carver, he got into a nice rhythm and looked to be in control as they turned for home. Asked for a big stride at the 2nd last, he missed it and lost considerable momentum at a crucial stage. That cost him significantly and the sectional times show that he lost 0.56s to Impaire Et Passe in the 18th furlong which ultimately proved to be the difference between the 2. To his enormous credit, he has rallied well to hold off the late challenge of Jango Baie for the runner-up spot. This was just his 2nd completed start over fences and given the earlier issues that he has encountered this season, he emerges from this race with an enormous amount of credit.
The runner-up ran a fine race, but that shouldn’t diminish the fact that Impaire Et Passe was the best horse in the contest. Already a Grade 1 winner at Limerick over Christmas, he traveled strongly in Paul Townend’s hands and once jumping alongside the leader at the 2nd last, he was able to assert. Although Gidleigh Park did lose ground with a mistake at that point, Impaire Et Passe ran the fastest penultimate furlong in the contest (13.06s) and only the fast-finishing Jango Baie was faster than him after the last. Having skipped the Cheltenham festival to come here, his connections will feel rewarded and with the fastest top speed in the field at 35.19 mph, he was able to deliver another Grade 1 success. There are other stars at Closutton that he needs to contend with, but he has now won 9 of his 13 starts and has never finished out of the first 3 in his career. The cheek pieces seemed to help him jump better and with the turn-of-foot that he showed in the closing stages, he should continue to be competitive at this intermediate trip.
Jango Baie ran a very similar race to the performance that saw him win the Arkle at the Cheltenham festival. However, unlike in March, the horses in front of him were not stopping and despite running the fastest final furlong in the field in 13.86s, it wasn’t enough to reel in the winner. His run-out speed of 32.79 mph was the best in the field and 1.11 mph faster than Impaire Et Passe. However, he does have a habit of losing ground in the middle of the race. His top speed of 35.03 mph was only surpassed by the winner and given the manner with which he has finished his last 2 races, he may well be stepped up in trip next season. However, whilst there is clearly stamina there to be used, he doesn’t lack pace and may well be worth another try over this trip with an aggressive front-running ride.
The final horse to take from this race is the 4th placed Boombawn. When he won the Rising Stars’ Novices’ Chase at Wincanton earlier in the season, there were some question marks over the strength of that form. However, an examination of his form this season, especially on good ground, would suggest that those doubts were unfounded. A length behind Rubaud at Kempton, form that he readily reversed in this race, he has run with great credit and still held every chance when turning for home. He couldn’t quite sustain that effort, losing 0.52s on the winner over the final quarter of a mile, but he was slightly short of room at the 2nd last and this was still a solid run on his first try in Grade 1 company. Better ground is clearly important to him, but a mark of 145 is surely workable for the Skelton team if he gets those conditions in the autumn.
Huyton Asphalt Franny Blennerhassett Memorial Mildmay Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)
This had the potential to develop into one of the better races of the week, but when Dancing City came down at the 13th, bringing down his stablemate Quai de Bourbon in the process and severely hampering Handstands, it looked to fall apart. However, that shouldn’t detract from what looked to be a career best from Caldwell Potter, who produced a winning time of 6:18.11s. That is the fastest winning time in this race since 2014 when the race was won by Holywell on good ground, the only time that a horse has run a faster time than Caldwell Potter in the last 20 years. Jumping fluently in front, he was able to set a good gallop at an average speed of 31.7 mph. The ground had clearly dried out on Friday, but to add some context to the early speed, after the first mile of the contest, Caldwell Potter was 10.04s ahead of Gaelic Warrior in the Bowl 24-hours earlier. This race had a finishing speed of 100.5% and despite the incident in the back straight, Caldwell Potter was a worthy winner. Paul Nicholls appears to have found the key to his very expensive purchase and if they can keep him sound, he is likely to get more opportunities to win at this level next season under aggressive Harry Cobden rides. Looking back with hindsight is an easy thing to do, but he did produce a very solid round of jumping at Windsor in January, losing an average of just 7.7% of his speed over his obstacles and that form with Gidleigh Park now looks to be some of the best Novice chase form on offer on this side of the Irish Sea.
Jordans has probably produced a career best effort too, although he was given a much quieter ride in order to do so. At 33.17 mph, he actually had a better top speed than the winner and he appeared to be coming with a winning run as the pair approached the last. The winner found just enough in the final furlong to hold him off, but it is worth noting that Jordans had been 2.26s faster than him over the preceding 4-furlongs and may simply have paid for that exertion in the final 100-yards. The Changing Man tired into 3rd after a bad mistake at the 2nd last, but still emerges with credit given that he took on Caldwell Potter from a much earlier stage.
Paul Nicholls post race comments about the issues with the horse’s feet are a reason for some caution, but he is a sound jumper who has produced a very fast time to win this race and it would be a mistake to entirely dismiss the form because his main rivals failed to complete the course. The 3-mile trip has stretched his stamina to the limit and his pace has dropped considerably in the final 3-furlongs, but if he can get into the same rhythm over an intermediate trip, he is likely to get plenty of his rivals out of their comfort zone.
Rosconn Group Maghull Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)
Another Grade 1 Novices’ Chase and another top-class front-running performance from a Paul Nicholls runner. This time it was Kalif du Berlais, who jumped from the moment the flag fell, taking at least 0.25s out of each of his rivals in the opening furlong. From that moment, he jumped impeccably in front and was able to control the pace with a clear sight of his fences. A winning time of 3:51.68s would suggest that the “Good” going description was accurate, but this race has been run with that going description 10-times since 2005 and both Balder Success (2014) and Ornua (2019) did run faster times. The runner-up, Brookie, came into this race following a handicap win at Doncaster and has certainly outrun his official rating of 135. Settled in rear, he closed well from the 2nd last and clocked a top speed of 35.57 mph, better than the 35.10 mph clocked by the winner. Admittedly ridden to finish well, he put considerable distance between himself and Special Cadeau, who raced in rear with him through the early stages and he was fastest horse in the 15h furlong where he clocked 12.93s, the only time a horse ran below 13s in the contest. However, as he closed after the last, Kalif du Berlais pulled out more, finishing in a race best 13.87s and with the best run-out speed in the field at 31.36 mph, the winner may well have idled in front and certainly had enough left to hold the runner-up when it was needed.
If we assume that L’Eau du Sud ran to form, then this race would look to be at least on a par with the Arkle form at the Cheltenham festival. However, the drying ground was certainly against Dan Skelton’s charge and given that he lost 0.86s on the winner over the final quarter of a mile, with a slower top speed (35.05 mph) than he managed at Cheltenham, it’s hard to make the case that he ran to the same level. Paul Nicholls implied that he felt the horse would have run well in the Arkle and this performance would appear to suggest that the 2-mile trip will see him at his best. However, if we take the view that L’Eau du Sud ran a below par performance and his main rival for the lead, Touch Me Not, made far too many jumping errors (not for the first time), then it adds a slightly different perspective. This was still a career best and I don’t wish to end our Jumps season on a low note given that he has produced a superb jumping display and run the fastest final 2-furlongs (26.89s) on the entire card, but the form of the horses in behind him must be questioned nonetheless.
You can find sectional times, stride data, speed statistics and jumping performance metrics on the At The Races RESULTS page.
The global database of sectional times, stride data and performance metrics is available through Total Performance Data.