It’s March. That means we are nearly at the Cheltenham Festival, but it also means that the Flat Turf season is just around the corner. With that in mind, this week’s review looks at some of the leading 3-year-old performances from Dubai and the United States this weekend and what clues we can glean from the form.
Meydan
Jumeirah 2000 Guineas
The only place to start this week’s review of the data from TPD was on the Meydan Super Saturday card and the only horse that I could possibly begin with was Ruling Court. This was a breathtaking display from Charlie Appleby’s 3-year-old who returned from an absence of 191-days to win comfortably by 6-lengths. His 2-year-old form was clearly very strong and I feel rather foolish for attempting to take him on in my preview of this card, but it was impossible to assess what form he might be in after such a long break. I won’t be taking him on again. With a top speed of 41.25 mph, he was the fastest horse in the field and he recorded a winning time of 1:35.52, fully 2.54s faster than his stablemate Mountain Breeze in the Fillies’ race earlier on the card. Once pulled out for a run in the home straight, he quickened readily, coming home in 22.56s for the final 2-furlongs, half a second faster than anything else in the field. Recording a peak stride length of 25.95 ft, the longest in the field, he has flown clear under a hands ride and must surely be considered to be a Group 1 winner in waiting on this evidence.
The disappointment in the race was perhaps Hallasan (6th) who never looked like holding off his talented stablemate and whose average stride length (23.52 ft) was considerably shorter than the 24.08 ft he managed when winning in January. He broke well, taking 5.4s to reach 30 mph, but in a better race, he was found out at the finish when he lacked the pace to go with the winner, coming home in 11.61 and 12.62s, 0.43s slower than on his latest start and 0.67s slower than Ruling Court. He should continue to win races, but he perhaps isn’t in the same class as the winner.
If there is another horse to note from this race, it should be Daamiss. Trained by Michael Costa, he has finished 4th on just his 2nd start in Dubai and should be given credit for the way he has seen out this race. It was always going to be a difficult task to be pitched into a race of this magnitude on the back of a maiden win at Abu Dhabi, although we should note that he had run in 4 trial races on the dirt before that debut win. However, he emerged with credit to run on late for a “never nearer” 4th, which included the fastest run-out speed in the field at 36.53 mph. He’s not going to reverse the form with the winner any time soon and he was ridden to finish his race well, but he has found a turn-of-foot in the latter stages and ought to be competitive at this level on this evidence.
Jumeirah 1000 Guineas
When a winner returns an International SP of 1/12, you don’t need me to tell you that it probably wasn’t the deepest race and whilst Mountain Breeze did what she needed to, it’s hard to be overly enthusiastic about the form. The pace fell apart when Lhakpa, the most likely pace angle, blew the start, taking 7.6s to get to 30 mph and running the slowest opening furlong in 16.46s. That left Octans in front and whilst the spanish trained filly has run another good race for Guillermo Arizkorreta Elosegui and Vaclav Janacek, she was no match for the winner in the home straight and was 0.76s slower than Mountain Breeze once the favourite came alongside her at the 2-furlong pole. The time of 1:38.06 was understandably slower as a result of the lack of depth to the race, but it should be noted that Mountain Breeze ran 10.80s for her penultimate furlong, the only horse outside of the sprinters to dip below the 11s mark on the card. She has won a pair of relatively weak races in Dubai, but she does possess a very good turn-of-foot, recording a top speed of 42.10 mph here and that will always give her a chance at the highest level, especially in small fields.
Nad Al Sheba Turf Sprint
Oh the agony and the ecstasy of a good sprint race on the turf. I must admit to having a small financial interest on Ponntos for this race, which makes this some tough analysis to put together. He has everything that you need to be a good sprinter in Dubai, early speed, pace, a straight-forward running style and a great attitude. He took just 4.8s to reach 30 mph in the Nad Al Sheba sprint, running 13.23 and 10.13s for the opening 2-furlongs, the fastest start in the field. That left him in front under Mickael Barzalona and as the field approached the 2-furlong pole, he looked to have the majority of his rivals off the bridle and in trouble. He still looked like the winner as they entered the final furlong, but then the petrol gauge began to flash.His average stride length dropped from 7.49m in the penultimate furlong to 7.07m in the last and his stride frequency did the same, dropping from 2.45 per second to 2.32. A final furlong of 12.20s (ranked 9th in the field) sealed his fate and as he was run down by the fast finishing West Acre. Ponntos has run a fantastic race, clocking a top speed 44.40 mph, a speed only beaten by the winner (44.58 mph) and despite the fact that he has finished 2nd for the 3rd race in a row, I’m sure that his time will eventually come again.
That’s my disappointment over with, so it’s now time to heap some praise on the winner, West Acre. His career form figures now read 121-211 and he is one of the most exciting prospects in the turf sprint division. A top speed of 44.58 mph will always give him a chance, but it’s the fact that he can produce that pace and stay well, that makes him of particular interest. He has lost 0.52s on Ponntos over the opening furlong, but from there, he has always been faster than the runner-up, including a truly breathtaking 10.05s for the 2nd furlong and to top it all, he had the best run-out speed in the field at 35.28 mph. The 3-year-olds have a very good record in this race, winning each of the last 3 renewals, but even allowing for his 7lbs weight-for-age allowance, this was a superb performance and it will take a very good horse to beat him on World Cup night.
Gulfstream Park
Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes (Grade 2)
Sovereignty has emerged as a contender for the Kentucky Derby and the Godolphin team must be delighted that Bill Mott’s 3-year-old made such a promising return from a 125-day break to win this trial. He also has form at Churchill Downs after winning the Grade 3 Street Sense Stakes there in October, but was he flattered by this weekend’s race? I’d be keen to say that he was. This was a clever ride from Junior Alvarado, who saved ground from a decent draw in stall 2 and who correctly judged that the leaders were going too fast in front. River Thames (2nd) and Neoequos (3rd) went hard in front, especially when running 11.64 and 11.55s 4th furlongs respectively.
The race had a finishing speed of 92.36% and given that the winner was given such a patient ride, I can’t help but feel that he picked up the pieces when the pace collapsed. When we rank the horses by their top speed, Sovereignty (39.44 mph) is only 5th of 6 and even his run-out speed (33.17 mph) is slower than the 4th placed Burnham Square. The good news for Sovereignty’s connections is that the Kentucky Derby will almost certainly be run at a similarly strong pace and they can be sure that he will handle the track. However, I can’t help but feel that this performance flatters him and that there are others in the market who have achieved more at this stage.
I’d actually be slightly more positive about the runner-up, River Thames. He has taken his first step into graded company in his stride and despite racing on the front end at a fierce pace and getting involved in a prolonged battle with Neoequos for the lead, he has stuck on gamely to finish 2nd. At 40.49 mph, his top speed was considerably faster than the winner and he was much faster from the gate, running 11.24s for the 2nd furlong, the fastest in the field. Races like the Kentucky Derby are unlikely to be run to suit him, but he had the best average stride frequency on Saturday (2.28 per second) and he will surely find races at this level within his range, particularly if he is able to lead.
Santa Anita
DK Horse San Felipe Stakes (Grade 2)
If Sovereignty was a little underwhelming at Gulfstream Park, Journalism was the polar opposite at Santa Anita. Michael McCarthy’s 3-year-old leapt into the Kentucky Derby picture with an impressive finish to run down the short priced favourite Barnes. The form shown by Barnes when winning the San Vicente Stakes in early January offers enough hope for this form by itself, but the fact that Bob Baffert’s Colt had the run of the race in front and was still run down by Journalism would certainly peak my interest. Barnes took up the lead with 4-furlongs to run and looked the most likely winner turning for home, but with closing furlongs of 12.20 and 12.42s, Journalism has run him down in the closing stages and with the best run-out speed of 34.14 mph, his finishing effort was very promising. He is still a work in progress and the fact that he took time to get into stride at the start of the race, running the slowest opening furlong in 11.63s, will need to be improved upon. However, he has shown a great attitude in the straight and with a maximum stride length of 25 ft, he is going to be suited by the strong pace in the Derby.
Barnes also emerges from this race with a lot of credit. Although he lost his unbeaten record, he finished 9-lengths clear of the 3rd placed Rodriguez and on a form line through his stablemate, he has run at least as well as Citizen Bull did when winning here in early February. If I were to be slightly critical, I might suggest that Juan Hernandez kicked for home too soon and that his mount paid for running 11.99 and 12.10s furlongs leading into the straight in the closing stages. His average stride length dropped from 7.33m going into the turn to just 6.87m in the final furlong and he finished a tired horse. However, that would downplay the exceptional performance of the winner and he may simply have bumped into an improving 3-year-old on Saturday evening.
You can find sectional times, stride data, speed statistics and jumping performance metrics on the At The Races RESULTS page.
The global database of sectional times, stride data and performance metrics is available through Total Performance Data.