This is a Listed race for the older horses over 2,000m and with $90,000 to the winner, it is no surprise to see that it has attracted a strong field. I’ll work through this preview of Friday’s feature race in race card order, but the TPD data would suggest that there are a couple of key form lines from Bahrain to focus on, starting with the Al Adiyat Cup run on 17th January.
Phantom Flight was a winner here 2-weeks ago in the Al Adiyat Cup and he got the better of 3 of today’s rivals, Sovereign Spirit (2nd), Zagato (3rd) and Tawareeq (4th). That race was run over 1,800m and with the first bend so close to the starting stalls, it was no surprise to see Callum Shepherd drop his mount in from a high draw. In fact, he got an ideal position and was able to track Sovereign Spirit into the home straight. At that point, Sovereign Spirit kicked in the turbo and bounded 3-lengths clear with an 11.23s penultimate furlong and a top speed of 17.81 m/s, but he couldn’t sustain that effort and as he tired, with his stride frequency dropping from 2.39 to 2.24 per second in the final 200-metres, he was readily run down by Phantom Flight. The winner shaped like a horse who will have no difficulty getting the extra furlong here as he was the only horse to drop below 12s in the final furlong (11.80s) and the fact that he was able to keep his average stride frequency between 2.15 and 2.27 strides per second for the entire race would suggest that his cruising speed will be enough to keep him in contention on Friday. Zagato (3rd) did keep on well in the closing stages, but the final furlong of 12.04s that he ran would only suggest that he was staying on rather than closing on the winner. This was Phantom Flights first start since mid-September and there is every reason to believe that he will improve his fitness here. At the same weights, it is hard to make a case for any of the others reversing this form over an extra furlong.
Passion and Glory won the Al Khalifa cup here in 2023, but despite good efforts at Goodwood and Ascot last summer, he hasn’t quite reached the same levels in his more recent form and it is hard to find too much enthusiasm from his latest start at Meydan in December. He finished 8th in the Entisar Stakes on the Dirt and whilst his top speed of 39.91 mph was the 2nd fastest in the field, he faded quickly once the pace lifted turning for home. The winner, Walk of Stars, had a surprisingly high finishing speed of 108.45%, so we cannot blame this performance on the fast pace of the Dirt track either. His hopes are pinned on the return to turf and a track where he has won in the past and if we take the view that the Meydan run was purely for match practice, then there is a small case to be made. However, at the age of 9 he is unlikely to be progressing now and he may find the younger legs have too much for him now.
Signalman won his first 2 starts in Bahrain in November, clocking the fastest final 2-furlongs on both occasions and at the time, he looked highly progressive. However, since stepping up in class he has struggled to beat a rival home and he finished 13th in the Al Dana Cup on 10th January, beaten 14-lengths in 1st time blinkers. He was 1.96s slower than today’s rival Snellen over the final 2-furlongs last time and it is very hard to make a case for him reversing that form here, even in a smaller field. He may need to drop down in grade in future if he is to return to the winners enclosure.
Snellen offers a much more promising case. She has won 5 of her 14 career starts, including the Al Muharraq Cup over this trip in December and although she was 5th in the Al Dana Cup, she was only beaten by 2-lengths. Her record in fields of 7-runners or less reads at 2 wins and 2 places from 4 starts too, so there should be no concern about the smaller field here. She broke well from the stalls, taking just 4.8s to reach 30 mph, but in a race where almost every jockey was keen to obtain a prominent position, she found herself 3-lengths behind the leader as they began the final turn, caught on the inside of runners. Scott McCullagh chose to take the brave man’s route on the inside rail, but that meant she was short of room in the straight on a couple of occasions, which limited her ability to stretch and when the closers came on the outside, he was forced to settle for 5th place. She had the highest stride frequency in each of the 10-furlongs in the Al Dana Cup and I think there is a very good chance that she will be in front as the field turns for home on Friday. However, her closing furlongs in December do suggest that the 2,000 metre trip is at the upper limit of her stamina as she closed in 11.94 and 12.76s. If we compare that to the 11.31 and 11.80s run by Phantom Flight 2-weeks ago, it gives an idea of the task that Seamie Heffernan has when he takes over the ride on Friday. These were different races on different days and that does need to be factored into the analysis, but it does seem unlikely that Snellen will still be quickening into the final furlong and that could leave her vulnerable if Seamie Heffernan isn’t able to conserve her energy.
This is a superb race and it looks likely to be more tactical than most races run in Bahrain. However, whilst I would expect Snellen to be in front turning for home if she shows the same early speed that she has shown on her previous starts, the doubts about her stamina over this distance would lead me to think that she may have a difficult task staying there. For that reason, I’d much prefer to be with Phantom Flight, who showed such a good turn-of-foot to chase down Sovereign Spirit last time and the extra furlong will swing things in his favour, even allowing for the weight that he has to concede.