Whilst the Flat racing in the UK at this time of year is mainly restricted to All-Weather handicaps, that’s certainly not the case in other parts of the world and this week’s look at the data from TPD takes in some of the superstars on show in Dubai and the United States. There were a pair of world class performances this week from Romantic Warrior in the Jebel Hatta and then White Abarrio in the Pegasus and this column analyses them both, as well as a look at the data from the painful defeat of Laurel River in the Firebreak Stakes. Don’t despair Jumps fans! I couldn’t let a January column go by without some kind of National Hunt analysis so I have also looked at some of the data from Nicky Henderson’s €1.4m colt Palladium, who won his UK debut at Huntingdon last Thursday.
Gulfstream
When a horse wins a Grade 1 by 6-lengths it is very easy to wax lyrical about the performance and to a certain point, that needs to be done with White Abarrio. This was a career best from the 6-year-old Breeders’ Cup winner, who broke well from stall 4 and had the ideal position behind the pace as they went into the first turn. Opening furlongs of 12.26 and 11.47s meant that he was 0.42s faster than his nearest rival (Locked) over the opening quarter of a mile and with a more favourable draw, that gave him a significant advantage from that point onwards. As we highlighted in our TPD preview of this race last week, pointing out the winner at 3/1 I should add, White Abarrio possesses a strong turn-of-foot in the latter part of his races and that proved key here, as he quickened the pace from the 4-furlong pole, with furlongs of 11.96 and 12.13s to get himself to the front. At that point of the race, his stride frequency increased from a race average of 2.33 strides per second to a peak of 2.40 strides per second in the 7th furlong. The runner-up had the longer maximum stride length, 25.26 ft compared to the 24.64 ft of White Abarrio, but unlike the winner, Locked lacks the turn-of-foot to get himself on terms in a race like this. The 12.19s that White Abarrio ran for the penultimate furlong was the only time in the race that he ran the fastest individual furlong in the field, but his high cruising speed and the ability to increase his stride frequency at a crucial time far outweighed any lack of speed at one particular point.
Locked has run a fine race on what was just his 7th career start and perhaps with a better draw he may have got closer to the winner. However, he seems unlikely to reverse this form as he struggled to quicken in the latter stages and having been 0.5s slower than the winner in the opening furlong and a further 0.96s slower than White Abarrio over the final 4-furlongs, he will need a significant pace collapse to get his head in front in Grade 1 company. The only point in the race that he runs the fastest furlong is at the death (12.47s), but in a race run at a true pace, the finishing speed was 96.72%, he is doing little more than running on behind a winner who has already put the race to bed.
Meydan
Jebel Hatta Presented by Longines
Any question marks as to whether Romantic Warrior would be able to translate his form from Hong Kong to Dubai were quickly put to bed with this stunning display. A top speed of 42.35 mph was a clear best and whilst we need to highlight the fact that the winning time of 1:45.10 was hugely aided by the strong early gallop set by the sadly ill-fated Measured Time, the final 3-furlongs run by Romantic Warrior are exceptional. Closing in 11.07, 10.88 and 11.95s, each of which were the fastest individual furlong in the field, he has readily run down the long time leader and used all of his experience from the speed driven turns of Sha Tin to excel on his first start in the UAE. At a peak of 27.92 ft, he had the longest stride in this field (next best; Measured Time 27.46 ft) and whilst Poker Face (34.07 mph) and Hollowbay Boy (36.73 mph) did have a faster run-out speed, Romantic Warrior had been heavily eased at that stage and he had readily taken over 0.5s out of each of them in the final 3-furlongs, so there is no suggestion at all that either could reverse the form. The switch to Dirt is the next part of the plan and whilst it is impossible to know whether he will handle the surface, what we can say is that he is likely to need to improve his early speed. He ranked 5th of 8 and 8th of 8 for the 2nd and 3rd furlongs respectively in the Jebel Hatta and on the Dirt, where it can be so important to get an early position that will need to improve. However, for now, he has confirmed his status as the best miler racing in Dubai this season and Friday’s win was a performance for the ages, confirmed by the TPD data.
Firebreak Stakes presented by Longines
This race was an agonising watch for Laurel River backers, who did everything right until he reached the final furlong. He was the fastest horse from the gate, reaching 30 mph in just 5.4s and once in front, he ran 10.25 and 10.46s for the 2nd and 3rd furlongs, both the fastest in the field as well as having the highest stride frequency in the field for 5 of the first 6-furlongs. However, despite having a sizable lead with 400-metres to run, the alarm bells began to ring as his average stride length dropped from a peak of 7.55m to 6.78 and then 6.32m in the last 2-furlongs. The 14.0s he ran for the final furlong saw him ranked 7th of 10 in the field and as he tired he was run down by King Gold, who had been given a much more patient ride in a race with a finishing speed of 93.44%. This was Laurel Rivers first run since March and he should take a big leap forward in terms of fitness, but for any horse to run 10.25s for the 2nd furlong of a 1-mile race, the equivalent to an average speed of 43.5 mph, requires an enormous amount of energy that needs to be accounted for in the latter part of a race. Whilst his race fitness was clearly a contributing factor, the TPD data would also suggest that he simply did too much in the early part of the race.
Huntingdon
When you spend €1.4m on a racehorse, I think you’d want to feel like you’d bought a superstar. Now, to be fair to Palladium, he has already won a German Derby and he has some nice options ahead on the Flat this Summer to bolster any potential stallion career, but I can’t help but feel underwhelmed by his hurdling debut at Huntingdon on Thursday. He didn’t clock the fastest top speed in the race, in fact, at 34.90 mph, his top speed was considerably slower than the 35.46 mph clocked by the runner-up Wolf Moon. Ben Pauling’s charge also ran faster closing splits, coming home in 12.19, 13.66 and 14.98s for the final 3-furlongs, nearly a second faster than Palladium over that stretch of the track. In a steadily run race (Finishing Speed 106.72%) Wolf Moon could be considered an unlucky loser, especially as his run-out speed of 27.83 mph was the best in the field. The winning time of 3:54.00 was 6-seconds faster than the first division of this maiden hurdle and Wolf Moon ran a faster final half mile than the winner of that race (La Pinsonniere 54.58s). However, given that he was sent off at 50/1 for this racecourse debut, it’s hard to imagine that he has been showing too much at home and having conceded 13lbs to Palladium courtesy of the winners 4-year-old allowance, it does leave an underwhelming feeling about the form. There is a possibility that Wolf Moon is an above average type and he is a half-brother to the smart bumper horse Redemption Day (Willie Mullins), but the percentage call is that this was a weak race, especially given the fact that the remainder of the field came home at long intervals. Palladium is reportedly heading to the Adonis Hurdle at Kempton next month and that track should suit his Flat experience, but the data would suggest that he has a lot of work to do if he is to match his lofty price tag over obstacles.
You can find sectional times, stride data, speed statistics and jumping performance metrics on the At The Races RESULTS page.
The global database of sectional times, stride data and performance metrics is available through Total Performance Data.