The weather has played its part in this weekend’s racing review, but the winds of change may be doing more than causing Racing to be cancelled as the British horses began to make their case for festival glory. Here’s a look at some of the data from Sandown on Saturday, with a particular focus on L’Eau du Sud and why he has changed my opinion of him and his Arkle chances.
Sandown
Jonbon stamps his class on the Tingle Creek, but maybe we should be taking more notice of L’Eau du Sud. This was a 16th win under rules for Jonbon as he went through the £1m prize money mark and he was a clear best in the Tingle Creek. From the moment he hit the front, he quickened away and his final 4-furlongs, run in a time of 62.71s, was the fastest on the day and just under 2s quicker than the runner-up Quilixios. A winning time of 4:05.03s saw him 3-seconds faster than L’Eau du Sud in the Henry VIII Novices’ Chase, but when we compare the final 4-furlongs of the 2 Grade 1 winners, there is a fair amount of optimism to be gained for fans of the Skelton trained Novice.
I was slightly sceptical of the horse after his win at Cheltenham last time in a race that looked to fall apart, but his run-out speed of 27.13 mph suggested he had more to come and so it proved on Saturday. His jumping can be awkward and he gave plenty of air to the last when meeting it on the wrong stride, but when we compare him to Jonbon, the most likely winner of the Champion Chase, there is a strong case to be made for L’Eau du Sud. He took 184.76s to reach the 4-furlong pole, 2.46s slower than Jonbon, but from there he ran closing sectionals of 14.72, 15.26, 15.42 and 18.10s, coming home in 63.50s, just 0.79s slower (approximately 4-lengths) than Jonbon in the TIngle Creek and over a second faster than Quilixios and JPR One. It’s hard to be sure as both the horses to chase him home in the Henry VIII jumped poorly and so the form of those in behind can be called into question, but L’Eau du Sud did put in a G1 performance when compared to Jonbon and there is now a case to be made for him as an Arkle contender.
Meydan
Tuz stamps his authority on his seasonal return. A winner of the Golden Shaheen back in March, Tuz appeared to return this season in a very similar vein of form as he blasted from the front to win this Listed prize by 5-lengths. As the sectional times above show, he was the fastest horse over the opening 2-furlongs in 24.63s. Once in front, he was able to maintain that speed, with an average velocity of 17.99 and 17.54 m/s for the middle part of the race. That high cruising speed had all of his rivals in trouble as they turned for home and from there, it was a procession. The connections of Colour Up may point to the fact that the draw and a lack of room
prevented him from getting closer, but he simply ran on passing beaten horses in the closing stages and would not have been any better than 2nd regardless. There are bigger tasks ahead for Tuz, but he looks to be in the same form that saw him win on World Cup Night in March and a winning time of 1:10.61 is just 0.42s slower than he managed in the Golden Shaheen. He will be a player in the dirt sprints at the Carnival once again.
Jamie Osborne comes to the party with Heart of Honor. Many of the 2-year-old races run before the turn of the year are dominated by the local trainers, but this Friday’s first race was an all british affair as Jamie Osborne’s Heart of Honor got the better of Estmrar for the Simon and Ed Crisford team. After a promising debut at Southwell in October, Heart of Honor was switched to Dubai and his connections were instantly rewarded with a £22,436 prize. Having dwelt slightly at the start (ranked 6th for the first furlong in 14.37s) he recovered well and cantered into the home straight to take up the running with 2-furlongs to run. The closing stages are the most interesting for me. In a race run with a finishing speed of 97.39%, he has closed in 12.23 and 12.69s, 0.78s quicker than any of his rivals, to win going away by 4-lengths. With a peak stride frequency of 2.42 strides per second, he possesses a lot of the early speed needed to win races on the dirt and a run-out speed of 33.15 mph, there would appear to be more to come and he looks to be a contender for the UAE Classics in the New Year.
Lingfield
Charlotte’s Web finds even more improvement. This was a 3rd win in a row for Simon and Ed Crisford’s 3-year-old, but easily her most impressive to date as she overcame a slow early pace to win. Despite being punished 5-wide around the final turn, she picked up readily, hitting top speed with a penultimate furlong of 11.08s, the fastest in the race, to get the better of Elladonna. A top speed of 41.41 mph is the fastest that she has now recorded on the all-weather, beating the 40.98 mph she clocked at Wolverhampton in August and if she continues to find more speed, she looks likely to dominate this division over the winter.
Charlotte’s Web was the star of the show, but I’d also like to give an honourable mention to Niminy Piminy, who won the Fillies maiden on the card over a mile. Despite an SP of 14/1, she proved to be easily the best on her debut and looks to be an exciting recruit for the Sangster team. This daughter of Siyouni is related to the French 1,000 Guineas winner Elusive Wave and she showed no signs of greenness as she quickened from mid-division under a hands ride to close in 11.20 and 11.31s. A top speed of 41.05 mph compares well with the other winners on the card and whilst the form of those in behind her is nothing exceptional, she still looks to have a bright future and is a name to note.
Aqueduct
What could 2024 have been for Locked? Having finished 3rd behind Fierceness at the Breeders’ Cup in 2023, Locked could have had a stellar campaign this year but for injury. However, having returned in October, he made up for lost time with a battling display to land this Grade 2. Although nudged into the bridle at several points in the race, he found most in the home straight to run down Mullikin in the final furlong, closing in 12.11 and 12.24s. Despite the strong pace and a finishing speed of 96.14%, he was able to extend his stride in the closing stages, at a time when the runner-up was visibly tiring. Locked extended from 7.53m in the 6th furlong, to 7.56m in the last, which when compared with Mullikin (7.12m to 6.94m) is perhaps the difference between the pair.
Locked was the best horse on the day, but I’d also spare a thought for the 3rd placed Post Time. He has finished in the frame on all 14 starts to date, winning 8 of them and I can’t help but feel that he was an unlucky loser here. Having been drawn wide in stall 11, Sheldon Russell was forced to drop in, running the 2nd furlong in 11.03s (8th) at a time when the winner and runner-up were running 10.93 and 10.70s respectively. As much as 8-lengths behind at the end of the back straight, he made sustained late headway to finish a never-nearer 3rd and with a run-out speed of 35.81 mph, he was easily the fastest finisher in the field. On another day with a more favourable starting gate, he may well get closer to the winner.