I will begin this week’s round up with a look at the success of Spirit Dancer for Richard Fahey and the team in the Bahrain International Trophy. Although not yet recognised as a Group 1 race, I thought this was a Group 1 performance from the winner and it needs to be celebrated. At this time of year, it is very hard to ignore the Jumps racing, so I have also looked at the data for Jonbon’s win at Cheltenham on Friday, as well as a couple of notable races on the All-Weather either side of the Atlantic.
Bahrain
Bahrain International Trophy
Spirit Dancer repeats the dose
A second win in this race for Spirit Dancer, who proved that last year’s win was no fluke as he came clear of Lead Artist to win by a length. This was an efficient ride from Oisin Orr, who allowed his mount to settle with consistent early fractions (13.94, 12.24, 12.24) at a time when plenty were scrimmaging for position. Having allowed his mount more time, he began to make his move with 1,000m to run, producing his fastest individual furlong of the race in 11.70s for the 5th furlong. Once there, he was able to produce a sustained finish, despite the fact that his stride length was shortening with each furlong from halfway. Did Lead Artist kick for home too soon? Well, possibly. However, when we compare the sectional times of the first 2 over the final half a mile, it is noticeable that the winner was faster in each of the final 4-furlong split times and the best horse won on the day.
Nation’s Pride ran a very disappointing race and even from an early stage William Buick needed to nudge him into the bridle and from the point the pace lifted around the home turn, he was quickly beaten, running 12.17 and 12.98 for the penultimate furlongs. Both his maximum stride frequency (2.30) and his average stride length (24.44) were lower than they had been when he won the Arlington Millions at Colonial Downs and this was perhaps one run too many for a horse that has been traveling the world since May.
Alflaila has run on for 4th place, but he has developed a nasty habit of being slowly away and it is costing him his chance. I should highlight that at no point in the race was he traveling faster than the winner and he is unlikely to have won regardless, but an opening furlong of 14.25s, the slowest in the field, has once again put paid to his chances. His run-out speed of 32.97 mph is a clear best in this field, suggesting that he had far more left in the tank than his rivals crossing the line, but it was all in vain after a slow beginning and he perhaps lacks the pace for this trip on a tight track. Whilst visually both he and Calif (3rd) are closing from the rear in the straight, neither of them are matching the pace of Spirit Dancer.
Lingfield
BetMGM River Eden EBF Fillies’ Stakes (Listed)
Sea Theme quickens to land a Listed double for William Haggas.
This was not an easy task for Sea Theme, who had weight to concede to her 11 rivals here, but she readily dispatched them under a textbook ride from Billy Loughnane, who settled her perfectly behind the early pace. It should be noted that this race was run at a relative crawl, with a finishing speed of 108.67%, but her closing sectionals of 11.48 and 11.44s were faster than the Fillies who ran over a shorter trip in the Fleur de Lys stakes 35-minutes later and I am particularly interested in the speed shown by the winner from the 2-furlong pole. She reached a top speed of 40.33 mph, the fastest in the race, but her run-out speed, taken 2-seconds after she crossed the line, was 37.98 mph, a drop of just 5.83% from her top speed, would suggest to me that there is more to come. This was a first start on the All-Weather for this daughter of Sea the Stars, but her half-sister Sky Angel was a winner on the polytrack in France and I suspect that this surface will continue to suit as it allows her to use her considerable turn-of-foot to best advantage over this type of trip.
I will also add a small note to celebrate a career best from the runner-up, Beeley. Although she came into this race of just 81, most of her best form has come on an artificial surface and she showed plenty of speed to chase home the winner. A top speed of 40.22 mph, the only horse aside from the winner to top 40 mph during the race and closing sectionals of 11.45 and 11.56s were some of the best on offer on the card. The handicapper is likely to have a say on her current mark, but she now has that all important Black Type on her CV and she should be able to break her maiden tag over the winter.
Cheltenham
Shloer Chase
Jonbon wins for the 15th time, but does he deserve to be the favourite for the Champion Chase in March on the back of this run? There are much tougher assignments and his connections will no doubt see this as an ideal preparation for the Tingle Creek at Sandown next month, but there would be a slight concern from the data about the speed Jonbon possesses, especially over this 2-mile trip. There was only 1 other regulation chase on this card and it should be noted that the 3-mile Novice Chase won by Hyland was falsely run, with a finishing speed of 117.03%. However, if we compare the 2 winners at the point at which the races began in earnest, over the final 4-furlongs, it does raise some doubts. Hyland closed in splits of 13.43, 13.30, 14.19 and 13.94, a total time of 54.86s. Compare him to Jonbon who ran 13.16, 12.95. 14.43 and 14.48, a total of 55.02s for the same distance and there are reasons to doubt the form. Hyland has an excellent record at Cheltenham in the autumn and he was able to dictate a slowly run race from the front, but with a rating of 144, even allowing for the extra 3 lbs Jonbon carried, I’d be hopeful that he might have had more speed. This was his first start since April and he should improve.
I’d also add that his run-out speed of 27.74 mph was considerably better than his 3-rivals and I think they were slightly flattered by their proximity to the winner. He should win the Tingle Creek at Sandown, but I doubt Willie Mullins’ team will be losing too much sleep over his Champion Chase chances on this evidence.
Woodbine
Bet365 Kennedy Road Stakes (Grade 2)
Nobals and Patches O’Houlihan serve up an end-of-season treat. A race run at a frantic pace, both the winner and the runner-up emerged with a huge amount of credit from Saturday evenings feature race at Woodbine. Having run opening furlongs of 11.60s, 10.31s and 10.94s, Sofia Vives must surely have hoped to have burnt off the challenge of Nobals with her mount’s customary early speed. However, Nobals stuck to the task with equally fast splits of his own (11.60, 10.35 and 10.94) and when Vives became slightly unbalanced entering the home straight, Nobals was able to take his chance. The pair of them had a top speed well in excess of 44 mph, but the latter, who is now 3-6 on the Dirt, had more in the tank in the final furlong, as his run-out speed of 34.14 mph confirms. This was just a 3rd loss in 14 starts for Patches O’Houlihan and he appears to have lost nothing in defeat in a truly run race. Both of them should be back to renew this rivalry in 2025.
I will also add a small “tracker” note for this race. Although Flag of Honour trailed in last of the 6-runners, his stride length caught my eye. At a peak average of 27.24 ft, he dwarfed his 5 rivals here and was never going to be suited by such a ferocious gallop. He is a relatively lightly raced 5-year-old and although he has won over this distance in the past, he is possibly a horse who will now be suited by a step up in trip to the mile.