The Bahrain International Trophy is a unique mix of Racing styles as runners from 6 jurisdictions come together. I have looked through the TPD data on offer to analyze each of the European runners and the type of race they might be suited to.
The need for early speed is a key point. The International Trophy is likely to be the best race run in Bahrain this year, but the track does have a tendency to favour horses with the early speed to get themselves into a prominent position. If we look at the meeting run here on 8th November, the winners of the Imported Handicaps were ranked 2nd, 7th, 2nd, 1st, 1st and 4th for the time it took them to reach a speed of 30 mph. I compared this early speed to their Top Speed rankings which were 6th, 2nd, 8th, 4th, 4th and 7th and it highlights the importance of getting out of the gates into the right position. This is a stronger field than any of those that contested the maidens and handicaps last week, but the point about the early speed should still hold true. The draw will clearly play a part in this, but if we look at the races run for Imported horses on the track so far this month, the winners have come from stalls 7,1,4,4,3,9,2,8 and 11: a mean average of 5.44.
As a working example we can look at the run of the locally trained Sovereign Spirit when he won here on 1st November. His early speed from stall 1 and his ability to maintain that cruising speed throughout the contest was the key to his 8-length victory, though he will need to find further improvement to triumph on Friday.
Spirit Dancer
I’ll begin my look at some of the contenders with last year’s winner, Spirit Dancer. Richard Fahey’s 7-year-old came with a sustained late run around the field to land this prize 12-months ago and is back for more and he proved that last year wasn’t a fluke when he landed a G2 in Saudi Arabia in February. However, this looks to be a deeper race this time around and my concern would be his starting speed. He has taken 7.4s to reach 30 mph in both of his most recent starts and whilst the run in the Darley Stakes at Newmarket was clearly a prep run for this, he has work to do with Lead Artist on that form and I wonder if last year the race fell perfectly for him?
Lead Artist
As the only 3-year-old in the field, this won’t be an easy task for Lead Artist, but he is rapidly improving and his win in the Darley Stakes would suggest he is capable of mixing it with the older horses here. He was one of only 2 horses in that field to top 40 mph (top speed 40.15 mph) and he was the fastest horse in each of the final 2-furlongs, suggesting that there was no fluke about his win at Newmarket. He went toe-to-toe with Kinross at Doncaster in September,
again clocking a top speed well-above 40 mph (40.85 mph) and I suspect that he is the fastest horse in the field. Although I am concerned by the fact that he dwelt at the start last time, he has ranked 1st, 4th and 5th for the opening furlong in his last 3 races and provided he breaks on terms for Kieran Shoemark, I do think he will have the speed to get into position.
Point Lonsdale
Having attempted to make all the running 12-months ago, Point Lonsdale didn’t have enough left in the final furlong and faded into 3rd. He looks like a possible pace angle once again as he ranked 1st for the time taken to reach 30 mph in the Ormonde Stakes at Chester in May and 2nd in the Lonsdale Cup at York in May. Although he struggled when 3rd to Trueshan and Sweet William at Doncaster last time, he was ridden to preserve his stamina for the 2-mile trip that day and both the strength of that form subsequently and the return to 10-furlongs should be noted. This is a delicate balancing act for Ryan Moore, as his fastest individual furlong run this year was 11.42s, run for the 13th furlong of the Sheema Classic at Meydan back in March and he is vulnerable to genuine speed, but you should never discount a horse with Moore on board, even if the drop in trip on a sharp track doesn’t appear to be an obvious move.
Andromede
Trained in France by Francis-Henri Graffard the return to 10-furlongs is a slight doubt for Andromede, but she was a winner over this distance at Hoppegarten in 2023 and she is likely to be allowed to settle in mid-division by Christophe Soumillon anyway. She has a very quick turn-of-foot, especially on fast ground, which she showed when clocking closing furlongs of 10.71 and 11.31s in the Prix Messidor at Chantilly in July. A top speed of 41.69 mph on that occasion, to go with the 40.9 mph she clocked in the Prix Bertrand du Breuil the month before would suggest she has the speed to match the likes of Lead Artist, though unlike many of the runners, she would probably prefer this race to develop into a sprint rather than a true test of stamina.
Calif
Trained in France by the Lerner’s, Calif also possesses an excellent turn-of-foot and has dipped below 11-seconds for an individual furlong when winning La Coupe at Paris Longchamp back in June. He is a G1 winner, having won the Grosser Dallmayr-Preis in July and is worthy of his place in this field, but much like Andromede, he is used to steadily run French races, with the finishing speeds of his last 3 races registering at 110.4%, 107.9% and 110.84% and may not appreciate this race becoming a test of stamina. He was soundly beaten in last year’s race when trained locally, but I think he has improved since then and it is worth noting that he was given a lot to do from the rear 12-months ago.
Nations Pride
He finished 7th in this race 12-months ago, but he was only beaten 4-lengths and he has improved since then. He won the Arlington Millions at Colonial Downs last time, getting the better of Integration, form that was discussed in this week’s review for TPD when that horse won the Red Smith Stakes at Aqueduct. He showed plenty of speed on that occasion, closing in furlong splits of 11.22 and 11.29s and a top speed of 41.14 mph, so he should be suited to the tight turns in Bahrain. His experience of International racing could be crucial and he should go closer this time around. It must also be significant that the horse arrives here much fresher than 12-months ago, when he was asked to turn around quickly after a battling success in the Canadian International at Woodbine. After a break of more than 50-days, his record reads 5 wins from 6 starts.
Alflaila
A winner of 7 of his 17 career starts, he is capable on his day. However, he hasn’t looked to be in the same form this year and although he did win at York in July, that race developed into a sprint with a finishing speed of 122.96% and he was readily found out in the Juddmonte International behind City of Troy last time. Although he has shown a lot of speed to win this year, closing in 10.72, 11.03 and 11.65s to win the York Stakes, he needs a careful ride and looks likely to be found out, especially as all of his victories have come on galloping tracks. The start would be a major concern, he took 7.2s to reach 30 mph in the Prince of Wales’ Stakes at Royal Ascot and was only marginally quicker in 7.0s in the Juddmonte international last time. In a race where early speed is crucial, his chance could be gone within a matter of strides if he doesn’t break on terms.